Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Possibly for areas to the SE, but for N NJ and E PA. I would say it is time as long as the other guidance holds course. I would think its still too early in the game for this yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the only recon info i'm seeing, anyone that knows more please share.... NOUS42 KNHC 291700 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EST SAT 29 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNASSSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION FOR P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 01/1200Z. SEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It is not coming anywhere near escaping to the east. In fact it is sitting due to our North over Quebec and not budging and is stronger on each consecutive model run. If the high escapes to the east, that initiates a maritime flow off the Atlantic--that's game over for everyone anywhere NEAR the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 KHPN, just north of NYC is the cutoff line between all frozen and rain Only gets to 32.4 at the surface http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_khpn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the high escapes to the east, that initiates a maritime flow off the Atlantic--that's game over for everyone anywhere NEAR the cities. Water temps are very cold around 34 - LI and the city proper including most of the boro's would be affected first BUT further north in the bronx and NE NJ Metro will take longer - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Marine flow is going to save us from a big ice storm in phl area. Far NW suburbs on north are a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are we getting s storm similar to the 1/18 snow/ice/rain event?...What ever snow cover is left will freeze solid again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Marine flow is going to save us from a big ice storm in phl area. Far NW suburbs on north are a different story. With the amount of heavy snow still stuck on the trees around here, any amount of additional snow and subsequent ice will cause major problems. Limbs and trees will start coming down. I would not be surprised to see major power outages from our area on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And to the west of NYC it is the typical areas NW of Rt. 80 and 287 approximately. KHPN, just north of NYC is the cutoff line between all frozen and rain Only gets to 32.4 at the surface http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_khpn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vyse Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the only recon info i'm seeing, anyone that knows more please share.... NOUS42 KNHC 291700 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EST SAT 29 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-060 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNASSSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE C-130J MISSION FOR P16/ DROP 8 (40.0N 164.0W)/ 01/1200Z. SEF Thats all I see as well. I can't seem to find any other info either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Wright-Weather snowfall map from the 12z NAM has all of east central PA, NE PA and NW NJ at 6-10 inches of snow and Mt. Pocono at over 10 inches.This would include in NJ, northern Passaic County, Morris County, Sussex County, and Warren County and in PA it is a line from about Rt. 78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WxOutlooks - new update predicting another huge february total snowfall and record breaking season. Also is very bullish on tuesday wednesday event... http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One thing to keep in mind...the heavier the precip is could decrease ice chances as the rain releases surface latent heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Wright-Weather snowfall map from the 12z NAM has all of east central PA, NE PA and NW NJ at 6-10 inches of snow and Mt. Pocono at over 10 inches.This would include in NJ, northern Passaic County, Morris County, Sussex County, and Warren County and in PA it is a line from about Rt. 78 north. Definitely have to root on that solution. Not some much that I want more snow but the ice storm potential for some areas is down right scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM is decent ice (per KPNE) 0.05 falls as SN, 0.13 falls as IP/ZR mix, 0.18 falls a ZR hr48 is SN, hr 51 is an IP/ZR mix, hr 54-57 is ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12Z NAM Clown Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And to the west of NYC it is the typical areas NW of Rt. 80 and 287 approximately. if this does pan out to be an icing event, some areas could easily receive 0.5" of ice accretion, with 1.0" totals possible. this may become a more serious than normal situation, given the intense snowpack we already have in many areas. starting to hear severe reports of building and roof collapses...any way you slice it, 1.0 to 2.0" of liquid equivalent could cause major problems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS has 850's below zero down to southern Jersey thru hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I see a winter outlook on that blog, but no discussion of the Tue-Wed event. Where are you seeing his discussion of the Tue-Wed event? WxOutlooks - new update predicting another huge february total snowfall and record breaking season. Also is very bullish on tuesday wednesday event... http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is warmer than the NAM at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 WxOutlooks - new update predicting another huge february total snowfall and record breaking season. Also is very bullish on tuesday wednesday event... http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Do you have a different link? I keep getting the 2009-10 blog entries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is all snow through 60 hrs on the GFS as per soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS has 850's below zero down to southern Jersey thru hour 57. Problem is that at hr 54, the entire column below 850mb is above freezing (Tmax 1.2C)--with an 850mb temp of 0.1C, so at best that's wet snowflakes, and more likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is warmer than the NAM at the surface also a smidge warmer/wetter than 0z. Low strung out more though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NYC is all snow through 60 hrs on the GFS as per soundings. Please educate me: 60 hours starting from from what time today out? Also , 60 hours until when? When meaning what hour would it all be over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got a flight out of ABE at 6AM Tuesday heading to Chicago then returning to ABE later that night (10PM). Am I in trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Please educate me: 60 hours starting from from what time today out? Also , 60 hours until when? When meaning what hour would it all be over? 60 Hours from 7 am this morning always subtract 5 hours in the winter from 12Z. So that would mean through 7 PM Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Over 1" of rain on GFS after only 1"-3" of snow for the cities and most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 60 Hours from 7 am this morning always subtract 5 hours in the winter from 12Z. So snow until Tuesday 7:00PM and what hour out is all precip out of here? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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