Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_084l.gif GFS stays AOB freezing NYC until hour 84. Looks like growing consensus of 2-3" snow then maybe some slop and ice(more ice interior) then most likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The good news is this thing going west is going to increase greatly the chance of the next event coming up the coast...and whaddaya know, the 00Z GFS is very close with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_084l.gif GFS stays AOB freezing NYC until hour 84. Looks like growing consensus of 2-3" snow then maybe some slop and ice(more ice interior) then most likely rain. And the storm after is looking better. Still east, but improved. Check this map: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06150.gif Still think Tues/Wed is a couple inches maybe, then maybe a bit of ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Next event is very close. Brushes coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And the storm after is looking better. Still east, but improved. Check this map: http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06150.gif Still think Tues/Wed is a couple inches maybe, then maybe a bit of ice to rain. Also, that is some amazing cold air that this storm is leaving behind which should lay the foundation for the next threat hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't care what happened in the last thread but if it happens again, a bunch of you are going to be 5ppd'd at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hope this storm trends so far west that we don't see a lot of rain. Won't happen....the confluence is strong enough and the Plains high is shunting east...a track Pit-Buf is about the furthest west I think we're going to see....if it gets pushed any more east than that it will likely try and transfer to the coast since going over the Apps is generally not feasible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The good news is this thing going west is going to increase greatly the chance of the next event coming up the coast...and whaddaya know, the 00Z GFS is very close with it now. Agree, for the next storm, the trough goes neg a tad late not allowing the storm to amplify up the coast but its a close miss. This has alot of potential imo and worth tracking while we watch the lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Blame the PV, or this would be going through MI easily. Although, the GFS actually shows some HP presence in Canada during the storm, so perhaps something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That second event now definitely looks more likely for snow in the coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks ;ike a second major coastal storm might come up the coast. The ECMWF has a warm solution, but the latest 132 hints at a possible storm. It is way too early, but the storms keep on coming this winter. Even with this upcoming storm to our west, we get another chance at a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks ;ike a second major coastal storm might come up the coast. The ECMWF has a warm solution, but the latest 132 hints at a possible storm. It is way too early, but the storms keep on coming this winter. Even with this upcoming storm to our west, we get another chance at a snowstorm. ECMWF warm for this storm or for the next one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the weekend event needs its own thread. Looks like a nasty icestorm north of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 0z NOGAPS does exactly as I thought would happen with this storm and is a snowstorm for NYC. EVERY prior run of this model for the last 24 hours was an all rain event for NYC, every single one. We shall see about rain for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ECMWF warm for this storm or for the next one? Both...by 168 the second storm is over PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br />Won't happen....the confluence is strong enough and the Plains high is shunting east...a track Pit-Buf is about the furthest west I think we're going to see....if it gets pushed any more east than that it will likely try and transfer to the coast since going over the Apps is generally not feasible.<br /><br /><br /><br />I agree.. It would not surprise me a bit if this had some kind of coastal transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I agree.. It would not surprise me a bit if this had some kind of coastal transfer A coastal transfer would put us back in the game and back to some of the runs from the other days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 0z NOGAPS does exactly as I thought would happen with this storm and is a snowstorm for NYC. The prior 12z run was an all rain event. We shall see about rain for NYC. Do you have an 850 map because that still looks pretty warm? It just looks like its a bit further south then the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I agree.. It would not surprise me a bit if this had some kind of coastal transfer The key really is just to get the track east of around Cincinnati...if it can be pushed to that point its likely going to at least make an attempt to transfer to the coast though it could result in a very ugly precip shield that sort of falls apart and tries to reform...the problem is the damage may be done anyway by that point and the mid levels might be above 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 0z NOGAPS does exactly as I thought would happen with this storm and is a snowstorm for NYC. The prior 12z run was an all rain event. We shall see about rain for NYC. It looks like the Nogaps wants to send the low off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The top map is an 850 map. Do you have an 850 map because that still looks pretty warm? It just looks like its a bit further south then the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The key really is just to get the track east of around Cincinnati...if it can be pushed to that point its likely going to at least make an attempt to transfer to the coast though it could result in a very ugly precip shield that sort of falls apart and tries to reform...the problem is the damage may be done anyway by that point and the mid levels might be above 0. Exactly, it seems even if we do get that coastal transfer it would still wind up to be some sort of sloppy solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The top map is an 850 map. Sorry didnt see that. How about the before and after frame to what you have posted there. Or a link to where i could find it if its too much trouble. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here it is. And EVERY prior run of the NOGAPS was a rain event. Every single one. https://www.fnmoc.na..._namer&set=Core Sorry didnt see that. How about the before and after frame to what you have posted there. Or a link to where i could find it if its too much trouble. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Exactly, it seems even if we do get that coastal transfer it would still wind up to be some sort of sloppy solution Sleet > Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sleet > Rain. Sleet is way better because it would add on to our snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sleet > Rain. I fully agree. Sleet is underrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It actually sends it off the DelMarva, just as HPC has been saying and as they based their forecast off of. It looks like the Nogaps wants to send the low off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sleet > Rain. Ya I doubt there are many solutions that would lead to all or mostly snow but anything but rain at this point...although I guess rain with temps in the mid and upper 30's wont kill this massive snowpack.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This thread is confusing as to which event is being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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