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Tuesday/Wed Potential Brand new : )


Guest stormchaser

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http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_084l.gif

GFS stays AOB freezing NYC until hour 84.

Looks like growing consensus of 2-3" snow then maybe some slop and ice(more ice interior) then most likely rain.

And the storm after is looking better. Still east, but improved. Check this map:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp06150.gif

Still think Tues/Wed is a couple inches maybe, then maybe a bit of ice to rain.

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Guest stormchaser

And the storm after is looking better. Still east, but improved. Check this map:

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06150.gif

Still think Tues/Wed is a couple inches maybe, then maybe a bit of ice to rain.

Also, that is some amazing cold air that this storm is leaving behind which should lay the foundation for the next threat hopefully.

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I hope this storm trends so far west that we don't see a lot of rain.

Won't happen....the confluence is strong enough and the Plains high is shunting east...a track Pit-Buf is about the furthest west I think we're going to see....if it gets pushed any more east than that it will likely try and transfer to the coast since going over the Apps is generally not feasible.

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The good news is this thing going west is going to increase greatly the chance of the next event coming up the coast...and whaddaya know, the 00Z GFS is very close with it now.

Agree, for the next storm, the trough goes neg a tad late not allowing the storm to amplify up the coast but its a close miss. This has alot of potential imo and worth tracking while we watch the lakes cutter.

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Looks ;ike a second major coastal storm might come up the coast. The ECMWF has a warm solution, but the latest 132 hints at a possible storm. It is way too early, but the storms keep on coming this winter. Even with this upcoming storm to our west, we get another chance at a snowstorm.

ECMWF warm for this storm or for the next one?

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<br />Won't happen....the confluence is strong enough and the Plains high is shunting east...a track Pit-Buf is about the furthest west I think we're going to see....if it gets pushed any more east than that it will likely try and transfer to the coast since going over the Apps is generally not feasible.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

I agree.. It would not surprise me a bit if this had some kind of coastal transfer

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The 0z NOGAPS does exactly as I thought would happen with this storm and is a snowstorm for NYC. The prior 12z run was an all rain event. We shall see about rain for NYC.

Do you have an 850 map because that still looks pretty warm? It just looks like its a bit further south then the other guidance.

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<br /><br /><br />

I agree.. It would not surprise me a bit if this had some kind of coastal transfer

The key really is just to get the track east of around Cincinnati...if it can be pushed to that point its likely going to at least make an attempt to transfer to the coast though it could result in a very ugly precip shield that sort of falls apart and tries to reform...the problem is the damage may be done anyway by that point and the mid levels might be above 0.

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The key really is just to get the track east of around Cincinnati...if it can be pushed to that point its likely going to at least make an attempt to transfer to the coast though it could result in a very ugly precip shield that sort of falls apart and tries to reform...the problem is the damage may be done anyway by that point and the mid levels might be above 0.

Exactly, it seems even if we do get that coastal transfer it would still wind up to be some sort of sloppy solution

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The top map is an 850 map.

Sorry didnt see that. How about the before and after frame to what you have posted there. Or a link to where i could find it if its too much trouble. Thank you.

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