valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the norman forecast is scary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 JB says up old Rt 66 should get the heaviest amts in this immediate region, from OKC up to STL. FWIW. I happen to live jogging distance from Route 66, so I'm pretty happy at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am over here in Joplin MoWeatherguy actually you could say the Joplin WebbCity borderline off rangeline road , so what is that 6-7 miles north of I-44 ??I dont know if I am 44 corridor or what lol thats why I am so concerned about this thing and I have a mother in law living with us that has to have oxygen machines day and night .... Freezing rain, sleet and snow all look possible with heavy amounts. I'd tend to lean more with Sleet and snow for Joplin though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 normans going with heavy snow tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thanks jomo you in Joplin too ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone else notice our temps this afternoon aren't going to get to their forecasted levels? Looks like they will be 5-7º off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thanks jomo you in Joplin too ???? yep, more on the west side over by Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the 18z NAM was an anomaly. HPC said it initialized too far west at 12z, and it appears to have went even farther west with the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now the temperatures http://www.mesonet.org/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we will see dynamic cooling and probably change over to snow quicker. This is still a tricky storm and we have to watch it closely. The arctic air is stronger and the models still can pick up. I know people are worried about power outages. But remember, even if it is mostly snow. If you have over a foot with winds gusting over 30mph and snow rates at 2-3", there is going to be power outages. This is going to be a massive storm and major banding setting up somewhere in the 4-state area. The 4-state area to KC should get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we will see dynamic cooling and probably change over to snow quicker. This is still a tricky storm and we have to watch it closely. The arctic air is stronger and the models still can pick up. I know people are worried about power outages. But remember, even if it is mostly snow. If you have over a foot with winds gusting over 30mph and snow rates at 2-3", there is going to be power outages. This is going to be a massive storm and major banding setting up somewhere in the 4-state area. The 4-state area to KC should get blasted. yeah it looks like it. Just hope we are a little colder so more of it will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS is starting, it shouldn't look like the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS is starting, it shouldn't look like the 18z NAM. It should be a little more realistic. Hopefully it will look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Both KC and Wichita AFD mentioned the "B" word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 tulsa office just upgraded to a warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we will see dynamic cooling and probably change over to snow quicker. This is still a tricky storm and we have to watch it closely. The arctic air is stronger and the models still can pick up. I know people are worried about power outages. But remember, even if it is mostly snow. If you have over a foot with winds gusting over 30mph and snow rates at 2-3", there is going to be power outages. This is going to be a massive storm and major banding setting up somewhere in the 4-state area. The 4-state area to KC should get blasted. I'm scrounging for info for Southeast MIssouri and maybe you can help. Looks like the low might pass directly overhead for us, and if so, we may be on the edge between rain and fzra then possibly snow. What do you think about where the GFS is currently showing the 0c line? Do you think the cold air might get far enough south/east to affect southeast Missouri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm scrounging for info for Southeast MIssouri and maybe you can help. Looks like the low might pass directly overhead for us, and if so, we may be on the edge between rain and fzra then possibly snow. What do you think about where the GFS is currently showing the 0c line? Do you think the cold air might get far enough south/east to affect southeast Missouri? The new GFS is rolling out right now. Lets see this run, the I will give you my best guess. I am not siding with the NAM or GFS. I have to look at each different layer and make my own decision here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The new GFS is rolling out right now. Lets see this run, the I will give you my best guess. I am not siding with the NAM or GFS. I have to look at each different layer and make my own decision here. Thanks, I am looking forward to your analysis. It's a real nailbiter here (Perryville, MO) about 70 miles south of St. Louis proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tulsa now has me in the watch, with only 1.3 inches snow and 0.03 ice. Looks like we're JUST on the edge of the big mess...for now, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS through 48 is either a hair slower or a hair farther south. Joplin and Tulsa are getting snowmegeddon for sure. 500 MB closed off over SE KS at 54? More QPF over NW Ark and western MO probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm defin liking the looks of this one better here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah GFS is having more QPF this run as well. Defin look to the NAM to it. Probably be pretty epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Got the wood stacked up... looks like this is as close to a "for sure" thing as you can get 24-36 hours from the event. Time to wait on the 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SGF has officially hoisted our warning: ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT THE WINTER STORM WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. * SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATE0NS WITH OVER A FOOT POSSIBLE WILL OCCUR FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. RAPID ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY WITH SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING ONE INCH PER HOUR ON TUESDAY. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is going to be bonkers.. 18z GFS Mean 48 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 998 low on the ensembles. Tremendous precip rates in some of this prolly. I'm pumped and ready!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just watching KY3 weather. The guy comes on advertising a significant winter storm for the Ozarks but when he puts up his graphical forecast amts it only shows around 1.5 ice accum for SC MO and max snow amts in the SGF area was around 5" in the far NW counties. Showed JLN to get around 3.8 and SGF around 2". What a letdown lol! Wish I could get Doug on my dish here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 it only shows around 1.5 ice accum for SC MO Only 1.5" ice accumulation? Only??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Only 1.5" ice accumulation? Only??? Yeah but he was talking about sleet in that too and not pure ice glazing. My point was what he was showing on his forecasted amts barely qualified for a WW advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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