valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 why did tulsa decrease the snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think you're in good shape WRT precip type... us down here just 30 mi. to the S probably have a lot more reason to be worried on that front. If I could pick anywhere in OK to be for this right now, it'd be a tossup between Stillwater and Bartlesville. Bartlesville...avoid Stillwater for all reasons possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Bartlesville...avoid Stillwater for all reasons possible. boomer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ...A POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM IS TAKING AIM ON OUR REGION... A STRONG PAC STORM SYSTEM IS NOW COMING ONSHORE OVER NRN CA AND IS EXPECTED TO FORM THE CORE COMPONENT...AND GETTING A BOOST FROM ITS INTERACTION WITH A NRN STREAM SYSTEM OUT OF ALBERTA PROVINCE...TO CREATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE FA. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NAM...ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL AND HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THE FLATTER GFS TRACK FROM DAYS PAST. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A HOLDOUT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS IT WAS AND BELIEVE IT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE GFS/NAM TRACKS. A PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA REGIME WILL MARK THE FIRST PHASE OF THE STORM WHICH COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT FOR CNTRL/SERN MO AND THIS WILL EXPAND TO AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE. A PRONOUNCED WARM WEDGE OF AIR ALOFT FROM THE WAA FORCING REGIME IN AN OVERALL WEAK BROADSCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FZRA WITH SOME PL/SN IN NRN MO/CNTRL IL. PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND THEN TAPER OFF MOSTLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SURGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN EVENT GETTING CRANKED UP. WENT WITH THE FASTEST GFS SOLN FOR THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE MAIN EVENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS TRADITIONALLY IN STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT SITUATIONS THIS DOES THE BEST. H300 JET COUPLING... VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND INTENSE H850 WAA WILL CREATE AMAZING LIFT VALUES THAT SHOULD DEVELOP MODERATE TO HEAVY PCPN AND DYNAMICAL COOLING THAT WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW THE FZRA OR MIXED PCPN TO BECOME ALL SNOW. PASSAGE OF THE H850-SFC LO LATER ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO FACILITATE THE COOLING NEEDED TO CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...THE SETUP IS EVEN FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSNOW MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE STL METRO AREA WITH A WELL DEFINED TROWAL SETUP TO COMPLIMENT THE STRONG DYNAMICS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES CONTINUING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN WILL BE FZRA AND ICE ACCRETION...AND THIS WILL BE WHAT MOST SEE DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS EVENT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD ICING WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TAPER ON MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE ICING ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY FOR STL METRO AND S AND E. ICE ACCUMS OF UP TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR SERN MO AND SRN IL. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-70 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT...TO THE S. WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES...WITH A WARNING LIKELY TO FOLLOW SOON IF NOTHING CHANGES. FINALLY...STRONG NLY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS ON TUESDAY AND PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR POURS IN. THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO EXASCERBATE THE PROBLEMS BY RESULTING IN BLSN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES FROM THE EARLIER ICING. BITTERLY COLD AIR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO RESULT IN VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO IN AREAS N AND W OF STL METRO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM may be coming in a bit weaker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM looks a little slower? Or weaker, or farther south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 tulsa multi media briefing also mentioned thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think we can be here in Bartlesville in the most active part of the storm, because we recive the cold with more snow early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM looks a little slower? Or weaker, or farther south? Yeah, but it doesnt look any colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 boomer! Sooner! Nice win for the basketball team last night @ Iowa State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, but it doesnt look any colder. Actually somewhat warmer. baroclinic_instability said it's probably not right in the track, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sooner! Nice win for the basketball team last night @ Iowa State. 3 in a row! Better than I expected, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sooner! Nice win for the basketball team last night @ Iowa State. phooey i missed it. when do they play again? how bout them girls!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Another killer run of the NAM for the OKC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 3 in a row! Better than I expected, that's for sure. Absolutely phooey i missed it. when do they play again? how bout them girls!!! Tuesday Night @ home against Baylor...look for me on ESPN2 I'm the crazy guy in the rainbow wig. I went to the girls game against aTm with some friends it was fun too bad they lost. [/ot] NAM looks to hammer a lot of our area, which is nice. Either the NAM or GFS has to give soon for my area. NAM holding steady... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I actually like this run better. Can we keep it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Beefy 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anything close to or exceeding a foot of snow in the metro will paralyze this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 More of that should be snow this run across the rest of SW MO due to more wrap-around in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Absolutely Tuesday Night @ home against Baylor...look for me on ESPN2 I'm the crazy guy in the rainbow wig. I went to the girls game against aTm with some friends it was fun too bad they lost. [/ot] ill do it!! i wish the boys were as good as the girls. then again i wouldnt want them to be kansas love them too! NAM looks to hammer a lot of our area, which is nice. Either the NAM or GFS has to give soon for my area. NAM holding steady... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 JB says up old Rt 66 should get the heaviest amts in this immediate region, from OKC up to STL. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are these the new mods? and are we lookin better or worse for the iceing situation guys around our corner of swmo sekan and neok ???/ and do we think there will be widespread power outages like with the dec08 storm .. soryy about all the questions just getting real nervous .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New OUN AFD posted... PDS Winter Storm Watch? lol 000 FXUS64 KOUN 302032 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are these the new mods? and are we lookin better or worse for the iceing situation guys around our corner of swmo sekan and neok ???/ and do we think there will be widespread power outages like with the dec08 storm .. soryy about all the questions just getting real nervous .... Still could go either way, we are on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New OUN AFD posted... PDS Winter Storm Watch? lol 000 FXUS64 KOUN 302032 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS. Not to mention the BLIZZARD WARNING? And bad or worse than Xmas eve 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 are these the new mods? and are we lookin better or worse for the iceing situation guys around our corner of swmo sekan and neok ???/ and do we think there will be widespread power outages like with the dec08 storm .. soryy about all the questions just getting real nervous .... I honestly still dont have a clue this thing is so borderline. Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 New OUN AFD posted... PDS Winter Storm Watch? lol 000 FXUS64 KOUN 302032 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011 .DISCUSSION... POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS... AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE -15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY 00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE. SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS. ok this is scaring the crap out of me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not to mention the BLIZZARD WARNING? And bad or worse than Xmas eve 2009 Just insane talk in that AFD...I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 KC is the first to officially pull the trigger. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am over here in Joplin MoWeatherguy actually you could say the Joplin WebbCity borderline off rangeline road , so what is that 6-7 miles north of I-44 ??I dont know if I am 44 corridor or what lol thats why I am so concerned about this thing and I have a mother in law living with us that has to have oxygen machines day and night .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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