natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT for Norman: 18.1" 12z GFS BUFKIT for Norman: 1.0" Fortunately, the ensemble mean is much wetter than the op....hope that pans out well for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Time to go pack in the firewood and prepare for the storm. I will be riding the storm out from my grandparent's home since they are not able to shovel snow and/or clean up fallen tree limbs. Wow... I can't even believe I am saying these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my latest blog and amounts. If trends continue, I will up amounts. http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13934767 Doug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro from Chicago Storm: 48hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. texas. Looks a bit stronger than the 0z. 54hrs: 1000mb SLP in C. Arkansas. Nice hit from OKC to KC. 60hrs: 996mb SLP in SE. Missouri. Nice hit from E. Kansas to ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Norman 1.23" QPF all snow. OKC 1.28" TUL 1.03" JLN 1.09" SGF 1.13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my latest blog and amounts. If trends continue, I will up amounts. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13934767 Doug Do you think the high precip rates and lift will cause dynamic cooling and a quicker changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Norman 1.23" QPF all snow. OKC 1.28" TUL 1.03" JLN 1.09" SGF 1.13" Is this the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Norman 1.23" QPF all snow. OKC 1.28" TUL 1.03" JLN 1.09" SGF 1.13" Less precip than the 00z run for here. I'm assuming there was a shift west with QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is this the 12z Euro? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Less precip than the 00z run for here. I'm assuming there was a shift west with QPF? Not sure yet, as I only have access to the stats at this point (AccuPro)...however I did only add up QPF from 06z Tuesday onwards because before that it will all be rain. If you add in the QPF before, it jumps up to 1.22" for JLN but again that extra .13" would all be rain on the Euro I believe...as your surface temps and 850mb temps are above zero, and the 1000-500 thicknesses are above 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 What's the total QPF for Tulsa, and around how much of each type? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What's the total QPF for Tulsa, and around how much of each type? TUL is .07" before 06z Tuesday...which like for everyone else I posted I believe will fall as rain...or if it falls as anything wintry...it would probably melt seeing as how it's .07" falling 24 hours. Then after 06z you get 1.14" almost all of which would be snow...perhaps a little sleet at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One thing to note is that we are NW of the surface low track which is deepening. That usually produces a quicker changeover due to dynamic lift and it will def be dynamic with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hires NAM through 48 Total precip: Simulated radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 TUL is .07" before 06z Tuesday...which like for everyone else I posted I believe will fall as rain...or if it falls as anything wintry...it would probably melt seeing as how it's .07" falling 24 hours. Then after 06z you get 1.14" almost all of which would be snow...perhaps a little sleet at the start. I will ask the same question as Okie, only for Wichita. Many thanks! FWIW, earlier this morning NWS ICT issued a winter storm watch to go up to I-35. They are indicating that a warning will be issued with the afternoon package. Pretty safe to assume that we'll see many other offices go with a warning later today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hires NAM through 48 Total precip: Simulated radar: Gets things cranking ridiculously far west. The WRF-ARW does even more so... hammering Abilene to Altus at 12z Tuesday. What a wild model-watching ride, and it ain't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I will ask the same question as Okie, only for Wichita. Many thanks! FWIW, earlier this morning NWS ICT issued a winter storm watch to go up to I-35. They are indicating that a warning will be issued with the afternoon package. Pretty safe to assume that we'll see many other offices go with a warning later today as well. 0.63" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hires NAM through 48 Total precip: Not a bad thing to have the Hires models on your side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gets things cranking ridiculously far west. The WRF-ARW does even more so... hammering Abilene to Altus at 12z Tuesday. What a wild model-watching ride, and it ain't over yet. yeah, that's what I'm worried about. Euro was a bit farther west as well. Should only be small movements of 30 or so miles either way since this bad boy is mostly on shore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tulsa has tweaked again. Not sure what their deal is because the ice maps aren't very impressive, maybe they think warmer temps or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tulsa has tweaked again. Not sure what their deal is because the ice maps aren't very impressive, maybe they think warmer temps or something? I'm excited but nervous...looks like it could be one of those situations where there's a huge gradient in snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC's QPF amounts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm excited but nervous...looks like it could be one of those situations where there's a huge gradient in snow totals. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Annnd Springfield updated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Annnd Springfield updated: I'll be really surprised if SLP ends up SOUTH of Little Rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Time to see what the 18z NAM craps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry map....... We're all going to be rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed. I think you're in good shape WRT precip type... us down here just 30 mi. to the S probably have a lot more reason to be worried on that front. If I could pick anywhere in OK to be for this right now, it'd be a tossup between Stillwater and Bartlesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro continues to look good for JLN. Around .90 all snow. SGF around 1.05 total and maybe half of that snow, depending on how quick it can change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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