NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Starting to look good for us all. Im getting to bed i wanna rest myself up now before this all happens so im nice and rested the next few days lol....i know im gonna have a few sleepless nights ahead of me soon probly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yep I am out for the night. I will have a big blog posted in the morning hours. Have a great night everyone.. Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yep I am out for the night. I will have a big blog posted in the morning hours. Have a great night everyone.. Doug Heady yeah I'm headed to bed........after the 06z NAM since it's just starting heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tulsa really pressing the throttle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nasty... 06z NAM is identical with precip through 51 but markedly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06z NAM shifted a bit back to the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I CAN'T BELIEVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS SGF says best guess is 8-14"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah defin an interesting forecast to say the least. As long as we can keep that arctic air coming in here quickly we're in great shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM and GFS shifted the track of the surface and 700 mb lows to the NW about 75 miles. I cannot help but wonder if we'll see a NW adjustment in the model tracks of this storm now that it is onshore and has a chance to be fully sampled by the RAOB network. We are still very early in the game and this is still an extremely difficult forecast. One thing the models definitely agree on though, no matter the track, is that somebody is gonna get trucked with very heavy snow (blizzard conditions) and a very damaging ice storm...while others will be left looking into a snow globe. 06z GFS: 06z NAM using Kuchera Method: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6z NAM and GFS shifted the track of the surface and 700 mb lows to the NW about 75 miles. I cannot help but wonder if we'll see a NW adjustment in the model tracks of this storm now that it is onshore and has a chance to be fully sampled by the RAOB network. We are still very early in the game and this is still an extremely difficult forecast. One thing the models definitely agree on though, no matter the track, is that somebody is gonna get trucked with very heavy snow (blizzard conditions) and a very damaging ice storm...while others will be left looking into a snow globe. We don't need a northward shift. The track is fine just where it is on the 00z models... thank you though!! In all seriousness, the 12z and 00z runs tonight interest me. I think these will be the two runs that will either "seal the deal" or will begin a shift in another direction. I am not sure I buy the northward shift yet... but it needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We don't need a northward shift. The track is fine just where it is on the 00z models... thank you though!! In all seriousness, the 12z and 00z runs tonight interest me. I think these will be the two runs that will either "seal the deal" or will begin a shift in another direction. I am not sure I buy the northward shift yet... but it needs to be watched. Lol, I liked your emoticon there....you seem a little apprehensive. Definitely agree on all accounts....I too am not sold on a 6z model suite shifting north but I was stating the fact that now that the system is on shore it jogged N. Unfortunately, I have to work today so I won't be able to analyze and digest the 12z models and inject my input, but I will definitely be ringside for the 00z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Who's going to the store for me today? (Kill me now, please.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the Euro has been consistently north of both GFS and NAM guidance, at least the past couple of days. It would not surprise me at all to see these American models shift N a bit more which would put more of us in a more dangerous ice situation. The Euro continues to show a lot of us in a nice snow situation though, so as long as it verifies somewhat close a lot of people on here will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I need a shift SE again or I'll be in close to PL or Rain turning to PL.. The cold air needs to speed up just a little.. 12Z and 0Z will be the make or break for me. Im going with break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acorntree Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Who's going to the store for me today? (Kill me now, please.) I went late last night and the shelves were already starting to look bare. People buying batteries and flash lights and fireplace logs. After the forecasts coming out this morning, the stores are going to go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Another juicy run of the NAM in progress. I think it will be good. Does appear to be a bit further NW though. A bit slower, further west but excellent precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We're still in the game big time... tks to a good push of cold air I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like alot of mine is going to be PL prob with this run. Then switching to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't know if this is of any consequence or not, but my temp has fallen several degrees just this morning. When I woke up, I had 36º and now sit at 30º. Just something to think about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Entire system looks more organized on 12z NAM run. Ouch that is a pretty big shift NW now that the storm is on land.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is this looking like a more northwest moving back setup to put us in a killer ice setup at Joplin and points just east and southeast ?/? just curious jomo moweatherguy ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is this looking like a more northwest moving back setup to put us in a killer ice setup at Joplin and points just east and southeast ?/? just curious jomo moweatherguy ??? Moweatherguy is in the ice. Joplin is in sleet and 22" of snow. I don't like that NW shift. HPC says they want to confirm with other guidance but it looks like the NAM may be suffering from convective grid-scale feedback which is causing the storm to be slower and stronger then it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Entire system looks more organized on 12z NAM run. Ouch that is a pretty big shift NW now that the storm is on land.......... Yeah hope we dont end up in a bad ice setup here. If the GFS moves NW I'm gonna get more worried for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 morning! tulsa NWS has reduced the ice and increased snow to9"!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Entire system looks more organized on 12z NAM run. Ouch that is a pretty big shift NW now that the storm is on land.......... As I indicated last night, that's what I expected to happen. Now we have to see if it maintains a deeper, more northwesterly track. If lived south of the I-44 in MO, I'd be preparing for a significant ice storm with plenty of snow on top of that. A big concern too is the pressure gradient with this system both for power outages and drifting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gonna start gassin up the generator here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A lil busy this morning, GGEM has come in line with GFS/NAM it looks like. UKMET is stronger with a low in NE Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z NAM BUFKIT for Norman: 18.1" 12z GFS BUFKIT for Norman: 1.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gonna start gassin up the generator here Man thank goodness you got one. We have nothing no generator no backup heat source nothing. Money is tight and our jobs is iffy so we are so careful right now. It sounds like more snow maybe a tad bit of ice here but I wish I knew something for sure on the ice situation. I also dont like how some models having been shifting this somewhat nw now it scares me. Ice is nothing to play with i have been through so many ice storms out here now and it dont take much to knock out power. Its getting so borderline here now for more ice it sounds like. This county is always borderline it seems and thats what gets me nervous. What to do what to do lol....maybe i should get to wally world and try and find some kinda heat source. This new rental is nice but the heat registers are at the ceiling and it gets cold fast in this sucker. Ok sorry for being off topic guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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