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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011 Part 2


okie333

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6z NAM and GFS shifted the track of the surface and 700 mb lows to the NW about 75 miles. I cannot help but wonder if we'll see a NW adjustment in the model tracks of this storm now that it is onshore and has a chance to be fully sampled by the RAOB network. We are still very early in the game and this is still an extremely difficult forecast. One thing the models definitely agree on though, no matter the track, is that somebody is gonna get trucked with very heavy snow (blizzard conditions) and a very damaging ice storm...while others will be left looking into a snow globe.

06z GFS:

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_81HR.gif

06z NAM using Kuchera Method:

CONUS1_MESO-ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

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6z NAM and GFS shifted the track of the surface and 700 mb lows to the NW about 75 miles. I cannot help but wonder if we'll see a NW adjustment in the model tracks of this storm now that it is onshore and has a chance to be fully sampled by the RAOB network. We are still very early in the game and this is still an extremely difficult forecast. One thing the models definitely agree on though, no matter the track, is that somebody is gonna get trucked with very heavy snow (blizzard conditions) and a very damaging ice storm...while others will be left looking into a snow globe.

We don't need a northward shift. The track is fine just where it is on the 00z models... thank you though!! :yikes:

In all seriousness, the 12z and 00z runs tonight interest me. I think these will be the two runs that will either "seal the deal" or will begin a shift in another direction. I am not sure I buy the northward shift yet... but it needs to be watched.

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We don't need a northward shift. The track is fine just where it is on the 00z models... thank you though!! :yikes:

In all seriousness, the 12z and 00z runs tonight interest me. I think these will be the two runs that will either "seal the deal" or will begin a shift in another direction. I am not sure I buy the northward shift yet... but it needs to be watched.

Lol, I liked your emoticon there....you seem a little apprehensive. Definitely agree on all accounts....I too am not sold on a 6z model suite shifting north but I was stating the fact that now that the system is on shore it jogged N. Unfortunately, I have to work today so I won't be able to analyze and digest the 12z models and inject my input, but I will definitely be ringside for the 00z models.

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I think the Euro has been consistently north of both GFS and NAM guidance, at least the past couple of days. It would not surprise me at all to see these American models shift N a bit more which would put more of us in a more dangerous ice situation. The Euro continues to show a lot of us in a nice snow situation though, so as long as it verifies somewhat close a lot of people on here will be happy.

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Who's going to the store for me today? (Kill me now, please.)

I went late last night and the shelves were already starting to look bare. People buying batteries and flash lights and fireplace logs. After the forecasts coming out this morning, the stores are going to go nuts.

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Is this looking like a more northwest moving back setup to put us in a killer ice setup at Joplin and points just east and southeast ?/? just curious jomo moweatherguy ???

Moweatherguy is in the ice. Joplin is in sleet and 22" of snow. I don't like that NW shift. HPC says they want to confirm with other guidance but it looks like the NAM may be suffering from convective grid-scale feedback which is causing the storm to be slower and stronger then it may be.

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Entire system looks more organized on 12z NAM run.

Ouch that is a pretty big shift NW now that the storm is on land..........

As I indicated last night, that's what I expected to happen. Now we have to see if it maintains a deeper, more northwesterly track.

If lived south of the I-44 in MO, I'd be preparing for a significant ice storm with plenty of snow on top of that.

A big concern too is the pressure gradient with this system both for power outages and drifting snow.

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Gonna start gassin up the generator here :thumbsdown:

Man thank goodness you got one. We have nothing no generator no backup heat source nothing. Money is tight and our jobs is iffy so we are so careful right now. It sounds like more snow maybe a tad bit of ice here but I wish I knew something for sure on the ice situation. I also dont like how some models having been shifting this somewhat nw now it scares me. Ice is nothing to play with i have been through so many ice storms out here now and it dont take much to knock out power. Its getting so borderline here now for more ice it sounds like. This county is always borderline it seems and thats what gets me nervous. What to do what to do lol....maybe i should get to wally world and try and find some kinda heat source. This new rental is nice but the heat registers are at the ceiling and it gets cold fast in this sucker. Ok sorry for being off topic guys

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