natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FYI, this is a cool site...it takes similar setups at 500mb and shows you what occurred...this is based off this morning's 12Z GFS run 500mb heights over the central US at 72 hours...some events of note are 3/9/94, 11/30/06, 01/01/96, 01/18/95 and 12/04/02 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL That is a cool site, thanks! I think us central OK folk are nervous that the GFS hasn't budged with it's outcome of ramping up precip east of OKC. Hopefully you're right and this thing gets its' act together earlier, kind of like what the NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM is slightly better than the 12z run but still pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is a cool site, thanks! I think us central OK folk are nervous that the GFS hasn't budged with it's outcome of ramping up precip east of OKC. Hopefully you're right and this thing gets its' act together earlier, kind of like what the NAM is showing. The analogs do not favor central OK as you can see but the bottom line is if that southern wave does not get pulled north by the system in the northern branch of the jet you should see snow there...it probably won't be a very big storm since the 500 low is not closed off when it passes to the south but the developing surface low over AR helps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GGEM is slightly better than the 12z run but still pretty meh. Is it just me or does tonites GGEM look almost identical to the 0z run from last night. Same LP in MS and same precip field north of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is it just me or does tonites GGEM look almost identical to the 0z run from last night. Same LP in MS and same precip field north of the low. I have no idea, I don't remember that run so it must have sucked, lol NOGAPS is beautiful though tonight, lol GFS Ens mean is very NAMlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the better if its closer to the NAM on temps. I have no idea, I don't remember that run so it must have sucked, lol NOGAPS is beautiful though tonight, lol GFS Ens mean is very NAMlike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have no idea, I don't remember that run so it must have sucked, lol NOGAPS is beautiful though tonight, lol GFS Ens mean is very NAMlike. Yeah. Ens mean shows a 998 low over W TN, similar to NAM. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the outlier is the GGEM still.. 30 mins until the Euro starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I've got faith in a good Euro run tonite. Prolly not gonna be around for the play-by-play so will catch up in the AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was having a conversation with a met friend from Columbia a few days ago and we were discussing the similarities with the November 30/Dec 1 snowstorm that dropped 18 inches of snow in parts of west central/central Missouri. It's interesting to see it as analog #3 at SLU. I still lean to the GFS, but it'll be interesting to see the differences in the models tomorrow. I still don't think the system off the CA coast is well-sampled by the RAOB network and it may not be until the 00z runs tomorrow that it is completely sampled. I think we'll see a stronger system in the models tomorrow night and a slight trend northwest. Heaviest axis of snow will run from Lamar to Boonvile to Hannibal on northeast from there, but a large area of real estate will get very healthy snow amounts! I was on-air in Columbia during the 06 storm and was so focused on the 18" of snow we received that I don't recall the effects of the system to the south. What did southern Missouri experience with that storm? EDITED to change Kahoka to Hannibal (after thinking about it Kahoka was too far north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was having a conversation with a met friend from Columbia a few days ago and we were discussing the similarities with the November 30/Dec 1 snowstorm that dropped 18 inches of snow in parts of west central/central Missouri. It's interesting to see it as analog #3 at SLU. I still lean to the GFS, but it'll be interesting to see the differences in the models tomorrow. I still don't think the system off the CA coast is well-sampled by the RAOB network and it may not be until the 00z runs tomorrow that it is completely sampled. I think we'll see a stronger system in the models tomorrow night and a slight trend northwest. Heaviest axis of snow will run from Lamar to Boonvile to Kohoka on northeast from there, but a large area of real estate will get very healthy snow amounts! I was on-air in Columbia during the 06 storm and was so focused on the 18" of snow we received that I don't recall the effects of the system to the south. What did southern Missouri experience with that storm? This: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=2006_nov30dec1_snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Bufkit/Cobb is out for the GFS.... Everything and the kitchen sink: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This: http://www.crh.noaa....0dec1_snowstorm Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Can I just take the average of BUFKIT from the GFS (2") and the NAM (11") and call it a day? 6.5", I'm done, take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks! Same I got 18" from that monster it was a really awesome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshMO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Same I got 18" from that monster it was a really awesome storm It was awesome. As I was heading into work about 2 AM, I was fresh tracks on Highway 63 in 10" of snow. I was traveling with a meteorologist colleague of mind and we saw so many flashes of lightning it was unreal. There was one that we were confident was CG strike with the loudest crack of thunder I've ever heard out of thundersnow. It was unbelievable! Someone will experience that with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It was awesome. As I was heading into work about 2 AM, I was fresh tracks on Highway 63 in 10" of snow. I was traveling with a meteorologist colleague of mind and we saw so many flashes of lightning it was unreal. There was one that we were confident was CG strike with the loudest crack of thunder I've ever heard out of thundersnow. It was unbelievable! Someone will experience that with this storm. It was one to remember for sure. I heard some thunderclaps with that thing. It snowed so heavy to for awhile. Under the 18" we had a thin glaze of ice as well before it changed over quickly to snow. Would love to see another like that for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The analogs do not favor central OK as you can see but the bottom line is if that southern wave does not get pulled north by the system in the northern branch of the jet you should see snow there...it probably won't be a very big storm since the 500 low is not closed off when it passes to the south but the developing surface low over AR helps out. It doesn't matter if the 500mb low closes or not. I would rather that it doesn't. All you need is the 500mb wave to tilt negitive as it passes and you will get a good banding situation. If it closes off you peak to fast, I would rather see an open wave with a strong closed 850mb low over a closed 500mb low anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 working on a new blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro's coming out........ Not sure about temps but.......... Chicago Storm says: 60hrs: 1004mb SLP in far NE. Texas. WAA snows in the OV/GL. Nice hit for OKC/ICT with main system precip. 66hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. Arkansas. Nice hit for TUL/KC. 72hrs: 1000mb SLP in far S. Illinois. Nice hit for KC/DSM/DVN/ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro's coming out........ Not sure about temps but.......... Chicago Storm says: 60hrs: 1004mb SLP in far NE. Texas. WAA snows in the OV/GL. Nice hit for OKC/ICT with main system precip. 66hrs: Sub 1004mb SLP in NE. Arkansas. Nice hit for TUL/KC. 72hrs: 1000mb SLP in far S. Illinois. Nice hit for KC/DSM/DVN/ORD. Doesn't sound like it deviated too much from the previous run. MoWeatherguy isn't here for QPF though At this point, I think it's safe to say we are looking at a major winter storm, but precip types aren't figured out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Doesn't sound like it deviated too much from the previous run. MoWeatherguy isn't here for QPF though At this point, I think it's safe to say we are looking at a major winter storm, but precip types aren't figured out yet. Yea man I think we are in for something nasty for sure this time. I just dont really want the zr lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alright JoMo, just updated my blog and will post it here in a second. This is so damn exciting. Lets hope this works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have looked over the latest data. I will continue to tweak my forecast over the next 48 hours to give you the most accurate forecast. Here is the good news, I am going to lower ice amounts. Here is the bad news, I am going to up snow amounts. Here is my latest updated blog. http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13934215 Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have looked over the latest data. I will continue to tweak my forecast over the next 48 hours to give you the most accurate forecast. Here is the good news, I am going to lower ice amounts. Here is the bad news, I am going to up snow amounts. Here is my latest updated blog. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13934215 Doug Heady I'm confused, how is increased snow amounts bad news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Chicago Storm says the Euro prints out 1.30" QPF for Joplin. I can't remember if this was less or more than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm confused, how is increased snow amounts bad news? lmao, it isn't bad news. But I copied the link from my facebook and most don't want winter weather. Well except for us weather nerds, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z EURO was between 1.25 and 1.5 for Joplin MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lmao, it isn't bad news. But I copied the link from my facebook and most don't want winter weather. Well except for us weather nerds, lol. yeah, I would much rather have snow than freezing rain. Looks like you are going with NAM temps and GFS precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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