Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The snowfall porn map..... Better save this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK... back to reality.. on to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Indeed.. back to Rain/IP and a dusting for me. As much as I hate it.. lol. OK... back to reality.. on to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cobb output for Monett... .45 sleet and 34 inches snow. WTF!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cobb output for Monett... .45 sleet and 34 inches snow. WTF!! lol yeah I saw that. There is some cold cold air which really cranks the ratio. Pretty crazy. What happens is the initial precip generates a lot of it, but also the low explodes over W TN and puts us in the deformation zone with really cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I guess this isnt reality on the snow porn maps huh ? I was gonna say its definitely better than ice.. So I guess that means there is still a decent chnace of getting butts handed back to us on sig amounts of ice then huh guys???????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArkieOkie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Um. If I'm reading that right, that's 8-10 inches for us? The dark blue strip? I will seriously LOL if that really happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I guess this isnt reality on the snow porn maps huh ? I was gonna say its definitely better than ice.. So I guess that means there is still a decent chnace of getting butts handed back to us on sig amounts of ice then huh guys???????????? Yeah its still just model magic at this point so IMO any and everything is still on the table for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Um. If I'm reading that right, that's 8-10 inches for us? The dark blue strip? I will seriously LOL if that really happens. Dark blue strip is 8-10, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK... back to reality.. on to the GFS. Yes, I don't believe in the last run of NAN, I rather go for the GFS, looks more consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Okay, home after a long day on the job. I can't believe my eyes as I catch up on all of these posts. Am curious to see what the GFS sees. If this system doesn't perform, however, I will be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, I don't believe in the last run of NAN, I rather go for the GFS, looks more consistent Why do you keep on calling it the NAN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Okay, home after a long day on the job. I can't believe my eyes as I catch up on all of these posts. Am curious to see what the GFS sees. If this system doesn't perform, however, I will be shocked. Welcome back - we have had some fun on here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Welcome back - we have had some fun on here today. More like 12z fun..... 18z Tragedy 00z Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 More like 12z fun..... 18z Tragedy 00z Fun Yeah that noon run of the NAM got me a little worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z UKMET at 72 has a 997 low over W TN. NAM was slightly S of that and not as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS may be slightly colder than 18z. (thru h48) We need it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At H+60, GFS is definitely colder than 18z and similar in its placement of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850's may not be low enough though up here. Not gonna be as awesome as the NAM I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 850's may not be low enough though up here. Not gonna be as awesome as the NAM I don't think. I'll take 1/2 as awesome as the NAM. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 At hour 84: QPF: Snow Depth: Modified Kuchera Snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not as juiced as the NAM but I think a good hit for sure. Very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't like your modified Kuchera okie... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is still awful for the central OK crew. NAM and UKMET showing more love back to the west. It may all come down to the deformation band for us, which is a bit scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is still awful for the central OK crew. NAM and UKMET showing more love back to the west. It may all come down to the deformation band for us, which is a bit scary. I think the GFS is developing the storm too late and the NAM is way overdoing the precip. We'll have a better handle on tomorrow, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS never gets this LP any lower than 1000 MB. I believe NAM was at 998 and Ukie at 997 for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS just doesnt have the push of cold air I need fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At H+60, GFS is definitely colder than 18z and similar in its placement of precip. I'm really starting to like your chances there...the southern wave appears as if it will be able to avoid phasing with the northern one and be able to track far enough south to give a good chance of snow into and south of the I-40 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS just doesnt have the push of cold air I need fast enough. I'm not sure that's won't change. It did speed it up from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 FYI, this is a cool site...it takes similar setups at 500mb and shows you what occurred...this is based off this morning's 12Z GFS run 500mb heights over the central US at 72 hours...some events of note are 3/9/94, 11/30/06, 01/01/96, 01/18/95 and 12/04/02 http://www.eas.slu.e...COSN&sort=FINAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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