JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not buying into this run of the NAM. Looks like convective feedback issues or something lol. Well a national weather service meteorologist just said "Conceptually not looking right based on the upper levels." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well a national weather service meteorologist just said "Conceptually not looking right based on the upper levels." Says tonites run of the NAM is not looking right based on upper levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Says tonites run of the NAM is not looking right based on upper levels? yeah, and "And based on WV trends right now, I'm not favoring the open wave scenario. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM definitely suffering from convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Guess we'll have to wait and see what the GFS has to say in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Guess we'll have to wait and see what the GFS has to say in about an hour. Man it would seriously suck if it follows similiar to the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6-9" not enought for ya. lol I'll take it in a heartbeat. Man it would seriously suck if it follows similiar to the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 6-9" not enought for ya. lol I'll take it in a heartbeat. Well compared to all the warnings and previous runs.....of course it would be depressing as hell! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yea I guess so.... but for me I havent had that in my forecast so anything over 3" is a bonus for me. Well compared to all the warnings and previous runs.....of course it would be depressing as hell! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's more that so many runs were coming in with a similar solution. I mean, they would move it west and east a bit each run, then suddenly this run comes in and it's way west of where it has been. (the QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A local OKC TV met just went on the air upping his forecasted snow totals to 10-18", stating that we have the potential to break our all-time record set during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009. Wow, talk about going out on a limb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what does that mean jomo that we get the heavy heavy ice scenario or less snow ??/ or is it just a b.s. run on the models .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A local OKC TV met just went on the air upping his forecasted snow totals to 10-18", stating that we have the potential to break our all-time record set during the Christmas Eve blizzard of 2009. Wow, talk about going out on a limb. What station? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 what does that mean jomo that we get the heavy heavy ice scenario or less snow ??/ or is it just a b.s. run on the models .... That means i'm waiting to see what the GFS shows and if any other models follow the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What station? Mike Morgan, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well the RGEM has a 995 in SE MO @ hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Springfield Public Schools has already cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well the RGEM has a 995 in SE MO @ hour 24. Is that a shift NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Is that a shift NW? 12z run had a 994 over S ILL.. 00z run had a 995 just south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12z run had a 994 over S ILL.. 00z run had a 995 just south of there. We're in good shape no panic here. NAM is still the crap model, especially now at the range we really would like to see it stepping up to the plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wowzers just got a huge rumble of thunder here. Soundings off of TwisterData suggest sleet...should be crazy. About to go outside and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0059.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tulsa says everything is on track, NAM is a little slow with the eastward progression of precip and colder, and there may be more snow west of Tulsa with this initial batch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Precip is rapidly expanding... wow... this is beginning to shape up just like we expected. We are at 31º now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS is going to have a lot different QPF output when compared to the NAM I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Oh wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Mr Consistency - the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SLP already at 1002 down in TX tonite. This may come out even stronger than modeling has it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have a YouTube video of the thunderstorm uploading about to go out and take some sleet pics I'll post in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Oh wow. Getting creamed down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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