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NE OK/ NW AR/ SE KS/ SW MO Winter 2011 Part 2


okie333

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I still see 12 or so from them. Where are you getting this?

Grided forecast:

Total snow accumulation 10 to 17 inches

Tuesday...Snow and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow through the day. Windy. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches. Total snow accumulation 10 to 17 inches. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wind chill readings 2 to 7.

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Trend of short term models, the HRRR and SREF, is to drop very heavy snow further west in Oklahoma. Baroclinic Instability, a poster in the larger regional forum, posted a water vapor/satellite image of phasing of the jet streams already occuring, which could result in this storm being more amped further south in our region, and taking a more NW course. We shall see. I now I'm glued to the laptop like the rest of you are. :popcorn:

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Trend of short term models, the HRRR and SREF, is to drop very heavy snow further west in Oklahoma. Baroclinic Instability, a poster in the larger regional forum, posted a water vapor/satellite image of phasing of the jet streams already occuring, which could result in this storm being more amped further south in our region, and taking a more NW course. We shall see. I now I'm glued to the laptop like the rest of you are. :popcorn:

Going to be interesting by BI has a known bias of being too strong/far NW. I think it may come back a bit west though.

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Looks like nws upped the totals here as well again....total snow accumulations 17-21"....INSANE! They are saying for it to begin after midnight. My temp is 32.6 now allready. Steadily dropping and will continute to monitor it. JoMo i still cant get intellicast to work :( . I hope its just my internet cause im missing that site badly....I love their wx radar map

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hard for me to distinguish tulsa county on that map to me it appears between the 10-15 and 15.

Our Ice Damage Index has been raised to Cat. 4. This was the level of the devastation Jan 2009 ice storm.

post-742-0-45662600-1296523793.jpg

I have spent considerable time today getting everything lined up for a worst case scenario, somewhat hoping it was a reverse jinx. Wood on porch, all vehicles topped off, propane canisters for camp stove, batteries, anti-gel added to diesel fuel, generator pre-started, generator fuel with fuel stabilizer added, everything that can be charged is charging, fridge loaded, work from the office brought home, cash from bank. This was all part of a plan developed arising out of the chaos from a 10 day outage in the 09 storm. If you have never lived through that sort of thing (and been responsible for making sure others in the home are OK) it is understandable some of you poke fun at those making some form of preparation. It was truly sad when our elderly neighbor was caught completely flat-footed got very stressed out by the difficult conditions, and soon thereafter suffered a stroke from which she never recovered.

At another level of course, having a big snowstorm is fun and I hope we get one. Just be careful and look out for those who may lack the physical or mental resources to safely weather a major storm.

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Our Ice Damage Index has been raised to Cat. 4. This was the level of the devastation Jan 2009 ice storm.

post-742-0-45662600-1296523793.jpg

I have spent considerable time today getting everything lined up for a worst case scenario, somewhat hoping it was a reverse jinx. Wood on porch, all vehicles topped off, propane canisters for camp stove, batteries, anti-gel added to diesel fuel, generator pre-started, generator fuel with fuel stabilizer added, everything that can be charged is charging, fridge loaded, work from the office brought home, cash from bank. This was all part of a plan developed arising out of the chaos from a 10 day outage in the 09 storm. If you have never lived through that sort of thing (and been responsible for making sure others in the home are OK) it is understandable some of you poke fun at those making some form of preparation. It was truly sad when our elderly neighbor was caught completely flat-footed got very stressed out by the difficult conditions, and soon thereafter suffered a stroke from which she never recovered.

At another level of course, having a big snowstorm is fun and I hope we get one. Just be careful and look out for those who may lack the physical or mental resources to safely weather a major storm.

Nothing wrong with going into a deep preperation plan like that my friend! Ice storms are deadly and I feel bad for anyone that gets them. I been through a few here in missouri and lost power during every single one of them for 7 days or more! What really makes it awful is having no backup heat and freezing. Every single storm we planned out and had everything everytime except a generator or backup heat source cause the stores were all sold out. Sorry to hear about your neighbor that truely is a sad thing. Hang in there and stay safe!

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This run of the NAM is even colder still and is about to the point of a mostly snow 6-8" event.. looks like there might not be much if any ZR for me at all.. Per this run..

Not liking this run so far for me. Those in central OK to SE KS will as they get 2 feet easily.

NAM_221_2011020100_F27_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

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