backdoorfront Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Springfield, MO A COUPLED JET WILL ACT TO PRODUCE EXTREME AMOUNTS OF LIFT OVER THEREGION. AS THIS OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR EXISTS. MUCAPE VALUES AROUND100J/KG ARE INDICATED BY SHORT RANGE MODELS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL BEGINNINGS OF A TROWAL STRUCTURE DEVELOPING. THIS WOULDACT TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES PER HOUR WHERE THIS CAN BE REALIZED. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ANTICIPATE THEEXTREME AMOUNTS OF LIFT WITH OMEGA VALUES AROUND 20 -UBARS INDICATED FOR NEARLY A 12 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILLISOLATED SNOWFALLS EXCEEDING A FOOT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO ACT TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH OR GREATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hires NAM precip through 39: And this is just crazy: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_l.shtml And the WRF-ARW: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_m.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SGF Zone forecast for Joplin: Tuesday...Windy...colder. Snow and isolated thunderstorms. Areas of blowing and drifting snow in the morning. Blowing and drifting snow with visibility one quarter mile or less at times in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 11 to 12 inches. Highs in the lower 20s. Lowest wind chill readings of around zero late in the afternoon. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. It's drizzly, cool, and dark out today. Actual precipitation is falling... weird! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 May I ask about ICT, TOP, and CNU if you have those available? Thanks! ICT - .60 TOP - 1.19 CNU - 1.44 Sorry for the delay. All snow of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its really foggy up here....drizzly and misty temp. is right at 37 and still climbing slowly for now. So far this forecast is spot on with dougs writeups! Hes doing such an excellent job keeping us up to date with his blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ICT - .60 TOP - 1.19 CNU - 1.44 Sorry for the delay. All snow of course. Much appreciated. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well should we be expecting power outages around our areas and especially in joplin monet humansville ???/ lets hope not maybe we should all pray this afternoon just in case but i dontmean to sound religious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Temperature is almost 10 degrees different at work 20 miles north of home here! Girlfriend said its freezing drizzle and freezing fog up that way. Man the forecast is changing alot i see. NWS dropped totals off some. Im starting to get confused now lol! Time to just read here and listen to you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well should we be expecting power outages around our areas and especially in joplin monet humansville ???/ lets hope not maybe we should all pray this afternoon just in case but i dontmean to sound religious Heavy snow with wind would probably cause some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does anyone here use intellicast wx radar? Mines not loading so not sure if its the site or just my slow pokey internet acting up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does anyone here use intellicast wx radar? Mines not loading so not sure if its the site or just my slow pokey internet acting up again Loading here fine. Nice WWA snow breaking out east of us with the first little impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Loading here fine. Nice WWA snow breaking out east of us with the first little impulse. Thanks jomo i figured it was probly just me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It just me or is HPC going with even more QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It just me or is HPC going with even more QPF? Its not just you. Thats just insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow thats about dbl the Euro output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z NAM is coming alive... sort of...... well ok, about as alive as the NAM can get. Surface and 850 temps colder through 18 across most of if not all the area. SW MO, NE OK getting pounded. Also stretching down into OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM just continues to impress with the cold. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Needing a track to the bootheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Needing a track to the bootheel. This run is probably going to be somewhat like the GFS run, it'sa little farther south and less intense from it's 12z run. Massive comma head on this mofo though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is still my friend, has been the whole time.. . lol Its even colder then before. Looks like it be more snow then ZR on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM really likes I-44 this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tulsa HWO A MAJOR WINTER STORM...PRODUCING RECORD BREAKING OR NEAR RECORD BREAKING SNOWFALL WILL UNDERWAY TUESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. SNOWFALL MAY REACH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 18 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF TULSA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard warnings up for KC area. I wonder........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sorry,I'm excited lol NAMMMMM Sorry, but this is annoying to me... lol It's NAM. N...A... EM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warnings in Joplin now... am I next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard warnings up for KC area. I wonder........... Just looked at Joplin & it looks like a Blizzard Warning from 6 am Tues thru 6 pm Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Blizzard Warnings in Joplin now... am I next? Knowing Tulsa, Nope... But I bet they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't ever recall being under a blizzard warning before here in SW MO. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't ever recall being under a blizzard warning before here in SW MO. Can anyone confirm? I don't remember any myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This may truly be historic for this region. I am in awe guys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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