Joplinmet Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's the Euro QPF amounts: JLN: 1.72" TUL: 1.73" OKC: 1.10" Amazing JoMo. Are you excited? I am and lets hope this holds. I just want to get blasted and this will satisfie me. Our chances for a storm to come together this winter are so slight. However, this one just might beat the odds and I would be so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh just so everyone knows, In the pattern this year with my theories this is the storm system we had on Dec. 10th and 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Then the bomb storm we had back in late October is the storm next Sunday and Monday. However, that could affect us, but mainly should be north of us. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Amazing JoMo. Are you excited? I am and lets hope this holds. I just want to get blasted and this will satisfie me. Our chances for a storm to come together this winter are so slight. However, this one just might beat the odds and I would be so happy. yeah I think this will be the storm that makes me feel like this winter wasn't a complete failure. I'm hoping the models don't underestimate the warm air aloft though. I remember a storm a few years ago that was supposed to be snow but ended up with a lot of sleet. I'm excited to see heavy snow and hopefully some thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah I think this will be the storm that makes me feel like this winter wasn't a complete failure. I'm hoping the models don't underestimate the warm air aloft though. I remember a storm a few years ago that was supposed to be snow but ended up with a lot of sleet. I'm excited to see heavy snow and hopefully some thundersnow. I agree, always a worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 No idea how the 06z NAM pulled this off since it looked pretty much like it's previous run. The backside snows were better which added to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's the Euro QPF amounts: JLN: 1.72" TUL: 1.73" OKC: 1.10" OMG is that all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sheesh. I can't get over the gradients on the models. Joplin might have 20+ inches and Branson might only see 2 inches with lots more ice. I guess the potential is really there for areas south of I-44 in the Ozarks to get a decent icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sheesh. I can't get over the gradients on the models. Joplin might have 20+ inches and Branson might only see 2 inches with lots more ice. I guess the potential is really there for areas south of I-44 in the Ozarks to get a decent icing. It doesn't appear to be as simple as the I-44 dividing line this time... it almost appears to be a sharper NNE gradient with this system, especially if you look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't know if it is right or not but the 12z NAM is closing off the upper low over SW MO at h36, much like the GFS did last night. Also a colder run it would appear. This storm is looking more and more epic for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't know if it is right or not but the 12z NAM is closing off the upper low over SW MO at h36, much like the GFS did last night. Also a colder run it would appear. This storm is looking more and more epic for this area. Surface low induced systems in this region are always more wild than the usual upper low ones, while the upper lows can surprise you they don't generate the moisture a surface low can by pulling in Gulf juice....the 3/6/08 event in N TX is a good example of another pure surface low storm in AR/MO/OK though it missed most of OK and MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I should add most of OK should be under blizzard warnings...this was a huge gaff in the otherwise well forecast 12/24/09 event...the MOS winds are 28-32 for OKC and the MOS notoriously under does wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 OKC back in the game after a nauseating 06z suite... No question, the best model run inside of 24 hours the collective group of us have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's just hope the 12z GFS doesn't pull a switcheroo on us. I do doubt it, however, because the models have been pretty consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Let's just hope the 12z GFS doesn't pull a switcheroo on us. I do doubt it, however, because the models have been pretty consistent with this storm. Its hard to get much movement with this event because the system can't really go north since its in no man's land as far as the big vortex over the Rockies not being close enough to pull it north but at the same time close enough to really prevent the southern shortwave from being able to cut north on its own...also the SE ridge is quite amped which is preventing much of a southward shift...hence I think why there has been little change in 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is crazy.... I hope that's what we're all saying about 24 hrs from now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hope that's what we're all saying about 24 hrs from now lol. just looked at 06z GFS... 24" in SW MO. It's probably not going to be that high, but to just see that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just looked at 06z GFS... 24" in SW MO. It's probably not going to be that high, but to just see that... Yeah I've saved that frame since I may never see a forecast that big again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the GFS is gonna be colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the GFS is gonna be colder as well. Yep, colder than last nights 00z run through 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS isn't going to deviate much. If anything, it is colder which means less ice (thank goodness) and more snow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Shifted east a bit but still a nice 996 bomb over the bootheel on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS isn't going to deviate much. If anything, it is colder which means less ice (thank goodness) and more snow. Wow. Slight shift SE with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah that's far enough. We're prolly just splitting hairs at this point with the surface features. Good news is all the new runs are coming in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 All I can say is "WOW"!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm loving the NAM and GFS this run. Yaaaaaaaaaay! Who can teach on a day like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So I'm curious if we'll see a slight shift SE of the heavier forecasted totals out of SGF and TUL this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Cobb output from the NAM: JLN - 30.6 TUL - 29.0 SGF - 22.6 MON - 18.6 OKC - 19.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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