okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Time for a new topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Marking... NAM starts at 7:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my latest blog and thoughts. Alright everyone. We have the potential for a big winter storm. However, the track is crucial and it is still uncertain. Here is what I am thinking right now. http://www.koamtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=13933154 Doug Heady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my latest blog and thoughts. Alright everyone. We have the potential for a big winter storm. However, the track is crucial and it is still uncertain. Here is what I am thinking right now. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13933154 Doug Heady Interesting, there were some individual ensemble members more wrapped up and farther NW than the 18z operational GFS run. I'm pulling for the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here is my latest blog and thoughts. Alright everyone. We have the potential for a big winter storm. However, the track is crucial and it is still uncertain. Here is what I am thinking right now. http://www.koamtv.co....asp?S=13933154 Doug Heady Great writeup as usual Doug. I really like your blogs they make it so much easier for me to understand things. Thank you! Im glad we have you in this forum man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thanks for the new thread. the calm before the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is out to 6. If the 21z SREF is any indication, I don't expect it to be like the 18z FUBAR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is out to 6. If the 21z SREF is any indication, I don't expect it to be like the 18z FUBAR run. Not seeing much diff thru 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not seeing much diff thru 42. Comparing to 12z NAM: I'm through 60, precip is a lot different. MUCH MUCH more of it in OK to MO. Also temps are colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Comparing to 12z NAM: I'm through 60, precip is a lot different. MUCH MUCH more of it in OK to MO. Also temps are colder than 12z. Ok gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run is gonna produce nearly 2 feet somewhere in our area!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joplinmet Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam is trending to 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking good so far. Wow... massive QPF this run over parts of our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, that is 2 ft in far NE OK along the border with Arkansas and far SW MO. Have to wait a bit for the extracted to see what the temps look like and whether this will be some sleet mixed in or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Holy crap!!! Never before have I seen one like that in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run is gonna produce nearly 2 feet somewhere in our area!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe more.. Hey All, Hope you don't mind if I intrude on your thread. I have been keeping an eye on this system as my Mom moved to Joplin last year. Certianly looks like the 18z NAM was a hiccup. Very Impressive qpf totals on the 0z run for sure. Models seem to be coming together pretty well for you in SW MO at this stage of the game. Looks like someone might get bombed out there. Mom has no idea what is in store for her as she moved from Ft Lauderdale. Good luck to all the snow lovers! Back to lurking Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Total QPF through the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IF that is SNOW..LOCK IT IN! To bad its prob PL here. Yes, that is 2 ft in far NE OK along the border with Arkansas and far SW MO. Have to wait a bit for the extracted to see what the temps look like and whether this will be some sleet mixed in or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Nam is colder for my area for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow what a fast sharp cutoff.....looks like you guys may be in for one hell of a snowstorm down there! Looks like 7-8" here maybe less....starting to look better for you extreme southern guys. Have any of you's ever seen more then a 12" snowstorm? Someone better take pics to if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just by looking at the 850 temps, I think OKC is mainly snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM extracted: JLN is way below freezing at the surface before precip ramps up. There is a tiny warm layer between 750-850 that maxes at 1.6 C on the 800 MB layer so it may be sleet but turn quickly to snow, or since there is such great lift it may be all snow. TUL: Below freezing when the precip starts, Tiny warm layer at same time as Joplin but it should disappear pretty quickly. Probably starts as sleet but turns to snow pretty quickly. OKC: Below freezing, Looks like it may be all snow. SGF: Looks like all snow. Fayetteville... Mix of sleet changing to all snow pretty rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It could be its close at the first.. As for me its looking like light rain quickly changed to PL and then decent snow. But I cant say for sure until the extracted data comes in. Just by looking at the 850 temps, I think OKC is mainly snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Better save this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM extracted: JLN is way below freezing at the surface before precip ramps up. There is a tiny warm layer between 750-850 that maxes at 1.6 C on the 800 MB layer so it may be sleet but turn quickly to snow, or since there is such great lift it may be all snow. TUL: Below freezing when the precip starts, Tiny warm layer at same time as Joplin but it should disappear pretty quickly. Probably starts as sleet but turns to snow pretty quickly. OKC: Below freezing, Looks like it may be all snow. SGF: Looks like all snow. Fayetteville... Mix of sleet changing to all snow pretty rapidly. I hate asking such questions but whats your thoughts for up my way jomo? NWestern tip of polk county on st.clair county border almost OMG just saw that nam map you posted....yikes whats that 20" i see wholly crap if that verifies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It could be its close at the first.. As for me its looking like light rain quickly changed to PL and then decent snow. But I cant say for sure until the extracted data comes in. I think there's a slight warm layer at 800 MB at 0.6 degrees, but that really isn't enough given the progged lift... it will cool quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I hate asking such questions but whats your thoughts for up my way jomo? NWestern tip of polk county on st.clair county border almost See above snow map ^ You gonna get buried this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ive never seen a foot of snow i wont know what to do with myself if i see that. the video from nws the briefing metnioned the B word!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 See above snow map ^ You gonna get buried this run. Yep sorry to ask such a dumb? I seen it after i was done typing lol! The biggest snow from one storm i saw was when i was about 17.....26" with 6 foot drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I notice the mood here has brightened considerably after the 18Z Debbie Downer NAM. Does this qualify as model porn? Better save this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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