Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Forecasting != modelcasting ... yeah it'll be a bit further south than Frederick, but Loudoun's starting to push it. Not really anything to add at this point... just waiting for us to get a few days closer now Aside from the later trends, I don't think we'll see any significant changes with this storm over the next couple of days. EDIT: This should be in the weekend discussion thread ive never seen an ice storm where it was ice in Fredrick and only rain in Leesburg..but maybe this will be the first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 please dont use GFS temp profiles for Ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 please dont use GFS temp profiles for Ice storm. SREFs are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ive never seen an ice storm where it was ice in Fredrick and only rain in Leesburg..but maybe this will be the first We'll see... I'm looking into it a bit more now (blog update done yay!) and I'll have a Mon-Tue map and a Wed map in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ive never seen an ice storm where it was ice in Fredrick and only rain in Leesburg..but maybe this will be the first There is no more rain/snow line in our region....we either all get snow/ice or we all get rain....it's just not like it used to be anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking at the soundings the 18Z NAM is close to if not all frozen for up here in Hanover,PA. Maybe an inch of snow followed by over an inch of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ji has made those statements ever since he was on Wright Weather. Unfortunately even when the results said he would leave, he didn't The only reason i do not want that is then JI will not leave the board forever. There always comes a time you have to take one for the team . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winter Storm Watch in effect already for York County, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winter Storm Watch in effect already for York County, PA. yeah, a lot of ice stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think those will be extended tonight into the Baltimore area. What a nasty turn of events with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think those will be extended tonight into the Baltimore area. What a nasty turn of events with surface temps. To be honest I dont get it, we root for snow storms and sleet storms which do cause distress obviously. Same with severe storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes which also cause the same types of dillemas. But with ice everyone is totally against it. For me its just another type of winter weather, and as long as everyone is properly notified, Im rooting for it.. Anything is better than rain (unless its severe storms) IMO. As long as we dont loose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 To be honest I dont get it, we root for snow storms and sleet storms which do cause distress obviously. Same with severe storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes which also cause the same types of dillemas. But with ice everyone is totally against it. For me its just another type of winter weather, and as long as everyone is properly notified, Im rooting for it.. Anything is better than rain (unless its severe storms) IMO. As long as we dont loose power it's the definition of a nuisance event until it hits the level that no one in their right mind really wants to deal with it. i could go for the latter just for photography sake. tho i should get more batteries i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 To be honest I dont get it, we root for snow storms and sleet storms which do cause distress obviously. Same with severe storms, hurricanes, and tornadoes which also cause the same types of dillemas. But with ice everyone is totally against it. For me its just another type of winter weather, and as long as everyone is properly notified, Im rooting for it.. Anything is better than rain (unless its severe storms) IMO. As long as we dont loose power I'm fine with ice as long as it's not more than 0.3" or so. I don't have any memory of long power outages due to an ice storm, and I prefer not to experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFs are warm They are polluted with a lot of RSM members that are probably way to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm fine with ice as long as it's not more than 0.3" or so. I don't have any memory of long power outages due to an ice storm, and I prefer not to experience it. It is a shame you are to young to remember 1999, that was probably the most crippling ice storm in Baltimore history. People were without power for 10 days. I remember to get down to the bottom of my block i had to slide on my butt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A lot of folks around here don't seem to understand ice climo in places east of say Winchester. Ice storms that amount to more than a nuisance are quite rare around here, actually more rare at this point than moderate snowstorms. Just because a model shows the blue line south of us and some green over us means nothing. We don't get much ice with moderate precip and 31.5 degrees. We just don't. Yes, it can glaze trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is a shame you are to young to remember 1999, that was probably the most crippling ice storm in Baltimore history. People were without power for 10 days. I remember to get down to the bottom of my block i had to slide on my butt. I remember seeing a lot of ice back then but I don't remember getting a prolonged power outage. I didn't start keeping up with weather until winter 01-02. I read that 1994 was also awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From the blog (http://madusweather.com/?p=788): The strength of the cold air damming will be a big player in determining where the different areas set up. Based on recent guidance and trends, I've come up with the following maps depicting the first event (with light precip. totals over most of the region) and for the second event (which will have QPF in the 0.4-0.8" range for the most part in MD/North VA and 1"+ QPF possible in PA): Please note the word MOSTLY in the mixed precipitation and rain categories. This indicates that these areas will fluctuate a bit during the events. Some mixed precipitation is also possible in the snow areas. EDIT: I forgot to add a 4-8" contour to the second map... fixed now (8:21pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I remember seeing a lot of ice back then but I don't remember getting a prolonged power outage. I didn't start keeping up with weather until winter 01-02. I read that 1994 was also awful. I have no memories of a 1999 ice storm. I do vividly remember the 1994 events. They were incredible. So much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have no memories of a 1999 ice storm. I do vividly remember the 1994 events. They were incredible. So much ice. It has been a long time since I have had to chip ice off of the windshield...eh...I'm up for a big sleet storm...I enjoyed VD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have no memories of a 1999 ice storm. I do vividly remember the 1994 events. They were incredible. So much ice. You have a short memory here you go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Storm_of_January_1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is a shame you are to young to remember 1999, that was probably the most crippling ice storm in Baltimore history. People were without power for 10 days. I remember to get down to the bottom of my block i had to slide on my butt. I remember how awful it was.. couldnt even go down my front steps.... people were wearing golf shoes to get traction! I dont want that kind of ICE ever again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You have a short memory here you go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Storm_of_January_1999 That link tells me a bunch of people in DC lost power. Not really a big help in jogging my memory, but thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That link tells me a bunch of people in DC lost power. Not really a big help in jogging my memory, but thanks. Ok cranky here is another description: January 14-15, 1999: A low pressure system pushed northeast from the Tennessee Valley spreading rain across the Baltimore-Washington Region. At the same time, an arctic front had sagged south from Pennsylyvania dropping temperatures at the surface below freezing. The rain instantly froze to surfaces creating a glaze. After a half to three-quarter inch of ice accumulated on trees and wires, 40 mph winds was enough to bring many of them down. Trees fell on cars, houses, utility lines and roads. The Governor declared a state of Emergency in Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, Howard and Montgomery Counties. About a half a million customers were without power and 800 pedestrians were reported injured from falls on ice. Washington Hospital treated 250 patients for storm-related injuries on the 15th. Montgomery County was particularly hard hit. Some people were without power for a week and 30 school buses slipped off the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You have a short memory here you go: http://en.wikipedia....of_January_1999 1/3 of Pepco's Customers without power, Suprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's the definition of a nuisance event until it hits the level that no one in their right mind really wants to deal with it. i could go for the latter just for photography sake. tho i should get more batteries i guess. Well I guess it differs from person to person. For me the added slipperyness of the ice can be pretty fun as long as it isnt too slippery and on every sidewalk, and of course if we dont get any power outages It would really make for nice pictures. Snow of course is more enjoyable and beautiful but again it beats plain rain at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok cranky here is another description: January 14-15, 1999: A low pressure system pushed northeast from the Tennessee Valley spreading rain across the Baltimore-Washington Region. At the same time, an arctic front had sagged south from Pennsylyvania dropping temperatures at the surface below freezing. The rain instantly froze to surfaces creating a glaze. After a half to three-quarter inch of ice accumulated on trees and wires, 40 mph winds was enough to bring many of them down. Trees fell on cars, houses, utility lines and roads. The Governor declared a state of Emergency in Harford, Baltimore, Carroll, Howard and Montgomery Counties. About a half a million customers were without power and 800 pedestrians were reported injured from falls on ice. Washington Hospital treated 250 patients for storm-related injuries on the 15th. Montgomery County was particularly hard hit. Some people were without power for a week and 30 school buses slipped off the road. It sounds bad but I seriously have no memory of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1/3 of Pepco's Customers without power, Suprising Heh...the more things change, and all that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It sounds bad but I seriously have no memory of this... The funny thing is i only have a slight memory from 1994 but from reading about both of them the 1994 storms seemed a bit worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The only memory of the 1999 ice that I have is seeing every leaf of grass encased in ice. But somehow I don't remember the power being out, or much of anything else, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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