Winterson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's crazy looking those highs should crush this to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 AT 84, maybe trying to change any lingering precip back to light frozen precip for extreme NE part of our area, but not really anything to look twice at. Attention then shifts to the southwest and the other thread to see if that energy will do something for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is a weird looking storm and always has been. Not sure why those high pressure areas give up so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's crazy looking those highs should crush this to the south If there was a block to keep them in place.. then yes.. but the pv in canada which is holding the highs in pllace is retrograding east.. so we loose them when the real precip starts. Id still say we see maybe an inch or 2 with another few tenths of an inch of ice before rain. What could happen is the strength of the highs+ the snow pack could lower temps enough that the warmup might be just above freezing so when the storm lifts east of us the northwest winds will quickly get us down below freezing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sucks that this is the better of the runs as between this event and the next weekend threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just let the rain get here quickly. Some light frozen stuff at the start would be fine. But we know its gonna be rain so let it start raining before we lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All the trees are already caked with heavy dense snow add a quarter inch of zr and it's lites out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nam through 54 is 32 and below for central maryland north.. By then around .1-.25 has fell through the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Through 60. 2m temps actually drop slightly, central md back into upper 20s.. but there is a lul in precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Woah.. temps stay steady in the upper 20s @ 66 with another .1-.25'' spreading into the region.. Nam=ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is smoking something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is smoking something. What do you think this time, do you think the surface temp makes it up to 32.1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 By 72 most of central md and nova (loudon county) are just above frzn.. in total .25-.5 frozen precip across region. Northern md and west are still below freezing however in upper 20s.. with over .25-.5 falling during that time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We barely get above freezing on NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If nam is showing it that cold at 72...ice storm looks likelly because it will trend colder and be slower to move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If nam is showing it that cold at 72...ice storm looks likelly because it will trend colder and be slower to move out We knew with the CAD that is was likely to have a longer period of icing then the GFS and Euro showed but i cannot imagine the NAM is correct and it is this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We thought that last ice storm. This is better cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CAD 8 out of 10 times over performs, particularly in the northern & western areas. I like my odds for the next few days in eastern WV. The wait is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We knew with the CAD that is was likely to have a longer period of icing then the GFS and Euro showed but i cannot imagine the NAM is correct and it is this cold. Nobody ever likes the NAM temps on this forum, and I don't know why... Right now I would be going 50/50 with the NAM/GFS temps for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nobody ever likes the NAM temps on this forum, and I don't know why... Right now I would be going 50/50 with the NAM/GFS temps for this system. I do not have such a great memory on prior seasons verification like others but if memory serves me is not the NAM usually to cold at the surface?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Both NAM and GFS have been running a bit warm during the last 2 precip events IMBY. Keep the trend up - slower storm further west; allows HP to nose down the Apps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I do not have such a great memory on prior seasons verification like others but if memory serves me is not the NAM usually to cold at the surface?. It has to really be viewed on a case-by-case basis. In most mesoscale-sized events, I would take the NAM's numbers over the GFS. Examples would include CAD and also warmer temps just ahead of a cold front that has strong southerly winds in the lower levels.The NAM also seems to do a better job during nights with broken/overcast skies and southerly winds (wamer lows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It has to really be viewed on a case-by-case basis. In most mesoscale-sized events, I would take the NAM's numbers over the GFS. Examples would include CAD and also warmer temps just ahead of a cold front that has strong southerly winds in the lower levels.The NAM also seems to do a better job during nights with broken/overcast skies and southerly winds (wamer lows). Well you know a lot more than me, and if that is correct we could be having the making's of a severe ice storm here if it keeps trending a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well you know a lot more than me, and if that is correct we could be having the making's of a severe ice storm here if it keeps trending a little colder. For areas around Frederick and Baltimore and north I could see significant icing. DC and south will have a harder time keeping the SFC cold enough for significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18Z nam is quite a bit colder out towards Frederick, md than the previous run and would support freezing rain Wed morning which would be a mess since that when the heavier precipitation will be falling. even rockville looks like they would be below freezing at the surface. Here's the nam sounding for frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For areas around Frederick and Baltimore and north I could see significant icing. DC and south will have a harder time keeping the SFC cold enough for significant accumulations. Well you know me i am a IMBY type of guy , i was talking about my area. I hope you are wrong though i hate ice, my dish usually goes out and obviously the power as well. Then my kids are always home and i cannot even spend so much time on the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure I believe it 63 02/02 09Z 30 30 102 6 0.07 0.00 545 562 3.5 -16.6 1021 100 FZRN 000OVC373 0.0 1.1 66 02/02 12Z 30 29 87 11 0.19 0.00 547 561 3.5 -14.8 1018 100 FZRN 000OVC432 0.0 0.8 69 02/02 15Z 31 30 91 12 0.24 0.00 549 561 5.6 -15.6 1014 100 FZRN 000OVC411 0.0 0.7 72 02/02 18Z 32 32 15 3 0.22 0.00 548 556 5.5 -14.4 1009 100 FZRN 000OVC117 0.0 0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not sure I believe it 63 02/02 09Z 30 30 102 6 0.07 0.00 545 562 3.5 -16.6 1021 100 FZRN 000OVC373 0.0 1.1 66 02/02 12Z 30 29 87 11 0.19 0.00 547 561 3.5 -14.8 1018 100 FZRN 000OVC432 0.0 0.8 69 02/02 15Z 31 30 91 12 0.24 0.00 549 561 5.6 -15.6 1014 100 FZRN 000OVC411 0.0 0.7 72 02/02 18Z 32 32 15 3 0.22 0.00 548 556 5.5 -14.4 1009 100 FZRN 000OVC117 0.0 0.7 Out here doesn't get in on the initial batch of precip...fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Out here doesn't get in on the initial batch of precip...fringed There is a pretty decent chance your area get's a pretty nasty ice storm. Those numbers are from JYO correct?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There is a pretty decent chance your area get's a pretty nasty ice storm. Those numbers are from JYO correct?. Yes JYO...nothing on Tuesday all of it on Wednesday so I am skeptical of the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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