aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So now all of the sudden the NAM is dropping around .25 in the hood with temps ranging from 27 at start to about 32....previous runs had less than .05....my bet is it is not done yet juicing up and cooling down a bit with the overrunning...12z GFS will be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll come along, but I'm low on cash. Whole Foods per diem? All the free tofu you can eat and wheatgrass you can drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks like it's going to make this an 1" plus qpf event....two wet ones in a row during a mod/strong nina??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So now all of the sudden the NAM is dropping around .25 in the hood with temps ranging from 27 at start to about 32....previous runs had less than .05....my bet is it is not done yet juicing up and cooling down a bit with the overrunning...12z GFS will be telling Yeah...front end dump that will get slathered with rain. Sat, 02/05 looks interesting. If the GFS still has a bias to the east, our area is in business when the low trends a tiny bit closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah...front end dump that will get slathered with rain. Sat, 02/05 looks interesting. If the GFS still has a bias to the east, our area is in business when the low trends a tiny bit closer to the coast. For the record, I don't think anyone on here is on board with an all frozen event. The discussion has mainly been over what if anything will fall as frozen before the heavy rain and warm temps of Wednesday get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For the record, I don't think anyone on here is on board with an all frozen event. The discussion has mainly been over what if anything will fall as frozen before the heavy rain and warm temps of Wednesday get here. Yes, the NAM shows brief a very borderline boundary layer so brief snow to brief sleet to brief FR to drizzle and then rain in part two of the storm. The GFS is cooler so all of the frozen stuff would be slightly increased. In the end, the large second part of the storm is clearly rain. 2/5 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll come along, but I'm low on cash. Whole Foods per diem? I could contribute $89 one way, Southwest, just to see what you would do to get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know it's silly but the NAM at 72 is not that warm at the surface here...I would be some places NW of here could be looking at a terrible ice storm...NAM also only gets into the lower 40's at best before dropping temps again IMBY. I still think this thing trends a bit colder....big rainstorm yes but an icy surprise for some???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM gives ORH a nice thumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know it's silly but the NAM at 72 is not that warm at the surface here...I would be some places NW of here could be looking at a terrible ice storm...NAM also only gets into the lower 40's at best before dropping temps again IMBY. I still think this thing trends a bit colder....big rainstorm yes but an icy surprise for some???? So a quarter-inch of ice Mon p.m. through Wed a.m. to harden up the snow pack, a rainy day Wednesday with upper 30's that will not do damage, then back into the freezer ? Looks like we stay white all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 40 hours of snow in Chicago totaling 2' and close to 2' in Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ..big rainstorm yes but an icy surprise for some???? The last two panels show that 850 temps crash just as the moisture exits stage right. Just at rush hour! Balto. to Philly could have another white knuckle rush hour at sunset Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 devastating ice storm for Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 devastating ice storm for Cleveland at hr. 72? How do you know it is ice; do you see colder air undercutting temperatures just above freezing on the 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 devastating ice storm for Cleveland My home town! Grew up in northeast Ohio. This storm will suck for us, but I still find it interesting to follow vicariously as it's going to affect that area. With the uncertainty right now, it could be either heavy snow and ice, or a major ice storm up there from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So a quarter-inch of ice Mon p.m. through Wed a.m. to harden up the snow pack, a rainy day Wednesday with upper 30's that will not do damage, then back into the freezer ? Looks like we stay white all week. According to the NAM...i think that's right...any bets the GFS comes in even cooler now at 12z? And no I am not predicting a snowstorm for our area...but I do think the NAM is still shifting a bit and yes I am looking for a nice little pre thump before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at hr. 72? How do you know it is ice; do you see colder air undercutting temperatures just above freezing on the 850? I'm talking the over .60 that falls prior to 72 with 2m temps in the mid 20's...72 is wetter and 32 and may be just plain rain with the upper levels so warm but prior to that is pretty icy looking to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Somehow, as disappointing for us as this storm is turning out...I can see it giving just bad enough ice to cut the power off yet again, right before the changeover to rain, as a final slap in the face! Seriously though...I haven't seen anything in the comments, but once we reach our highest temperature on Wednesday, anyone have an idea how quickly they'll drop? Not saying I expect any snow at the end, but from what I saw in the GFS, the surface temperatures crash big time toward evening. A quick re-freeze?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm talking the over .60 that falls prior to 72 with 2m temps in the mid 20's...72 is wetter and 32 and may be just plain rain with the upper levels so warm but prior to that is pretty icy looking to me I'm impressed, you are climbing the leaderboard of advanced weenies. The GEFS has a dominant precip type map and here it is for 06Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS out to 42: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Interesting, still looks like light frozen precip at 48 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like some frozen precip trying to hang on at 54 for Phineas and maybe even down to BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS basically still advertising 6-12 hours of light frozen precipitation across the area from the frontrunning stuff before the rain takes over. And the rain that takes over is not particularly heavy through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 54 is definitely borderline light frozen here....certainly is frozen around MRB/HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 54hr would be sleet or FZRA for most of the area, except NE MD, given the 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like some frozen precip trying to hang on at 54 for Phineas and maybe even down to BWI. Surface temps still below freezing across northern Md through h60 on GFS. QPF through that time 0.25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The heavy rain arrives at 72 DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This looks to be much further south and east he 54 temps still below freezing mostly snow baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They are going to need boats in NYC if this verifies at 78. Heavy rain on top of that snowpack? Wet, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This looks to be much further south and east he 54 temps still below freezing mostly snow baltimore no not snow...frozen yes...not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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