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Mid week storm talk continued


mitchnick

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So if I gave you an over/under of 0.10 inches of ice on the ground in metro DC at peak rush hour (8-9am?), would you take the under?

I would definitely take the under as even if temps are 31, moderate to heavy rainfall with a warm layer temp of 45 would probably not accumulate as raindrops freezing instantaneously since the drops would be above freezing.

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Yeah, I'm leaning that way too.

I get it... the models have trouble handling the CAD signatures. Trends for last weeks storm had the temperature DROPPING. For this one they've gotten higher everytime. Even LWX mentions that from 11:27AM today: "ENTIRE MRNG HAS BEEN SPENT ON DECIDING WHAT TO DO REGARDING TNGT'S WX. EVERYTHING KEEPS TRENDING WARMER. AM NOT SEEING TEMPS WL BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE AMT OF ACCRETION NEEDED TO JUSTIFY A WRNG. IF THAT TREND CHGS THE AREA WHERE AN UPGRADE WOULD BE MOST LKLY WOULD BE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE MD BORDER."

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Despite the hype from the local TV mets, at least most of us knew for days not to take this threat seriously. People in areas like Pittsburgh and southern Ohio are peeved. They apparently were told to expect a massive ice storm, and went out and spent hundreds of dollars on supplies, and now the forecasts over there are looking more and more like rain.

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It's impressive that New England is on the (relatively) warm side of the storm, yet they'll get pummeled with snow/sleet. We in the mid-Atl almost never enjoy that scenario with such heavy accums as they're seeing in ALB, ORF, etc. in this type of set-up.

Thats not entirely true, the problem for us is the low goes NORTH of us...that is NEVER a good setup. Places north of the NY/PA border the low goes to their west, then south. We can get a big storm in setups like that. Many storms have a primary get up into southern Ohio then transfer to the mid atlantic coast and this area can get signifficant snow/ice.

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