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Mid week storm talk continued


mitchnick

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06Z GFS really pulls the warm air in. Has the surface freezing line all the way up into central NY state with 50's into central MD. With what it is showing at this point the next batch of moisture would be all rain with no frozen except for the mountains in western MD.

I'm not sure I believe that will be the case.

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I agree. Think the NAM is probably more realistic. Though to be honest I would rather have the GFS verify because I really hate dealing with the ice.

This may be somewhat personal bias/weenieness on my part, but I don't think any of the models are "realistic". All models were Much too warm at the surface with the last Ice event...heck, GFS had me at 44 degrees for the high...the actual temp ended up at 31. NAM was 38. The storm ended up cutting my power.

Not saying the same rules apply here, but models tend to erode the cold air much too quickly at the surface. There being light winds during the timeframe of interest also play into my skeptical view of the "warm" idea.

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This may be somewhat personal bias/weenieness on my part, but I don't think any of the models are "realistic". All models were Much too warm at the surface with the last Ice event...heck, GFS had me at 44 degrees for the high...the actual temp ended up at 31. NAM was 38. The storm ended up cutting my power.

Not saying the same rules apply here, but models tend to erode the cold air much too quickly at the surface.

Models do have a habit of underestimating CAD. I think the one thing we should be looking at is how warm it gets today. If we go above freezing that probably will mean we don't see frozen precip. because I don't see the temps dropping tonight that much if at all.

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Finding it hard to image Wed morning will be worse than Tues morning along the I-95 corridor DC-Balto. Got down to 26 IMBY Tues morning. With a mostly dry daytime progged for Tuesday, temps would get a chance to rise and they will likely go above freezing along the I-95 corridor. Will be hard for them to get back to the 26-29 range Tues nite with heavier precip moving in and SW-ly flow aloft increasing. Low temps along I-95 DC-Balto are forecasted to be more like 30-32 as opposed to 26-29 from what I’ve read. That may cause a little icing but as ground surface temps eventually warms just enuf, I would think the icing will cease well before morning. Guess they’re relying on the alleged weak coastal low bringing a more NE-ly flow during Tues evening (?) – otherwise, don’t see where the cold-for-icing temps are coming from for a widespread icing – again – for the I-95 corridor DC-Balto.

Other possibility is that it stays damp all day and temps don’t get much more than a degree or so above 32.

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Wow.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ILZ014&warncounty=ILC031&firewxzone=ILZ014&local_place1=Cicero+IL&product1=Lakeshore+Flood+Warning

Up to 25 foot waves on Lake Michigan with this storm:

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITHGUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT INWAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT.

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Wow.

http://forecast.weat...e+Flood+Warning

Up to 25 foot waves on Lake Michigan with this storm:

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH THIS EVENING WITHGUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT INWAVES BUILDING TO 14 TO 18 FT...WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25 FT.

so jealous. If we had any blocking, this owuld of been our storm. A long duration monster like last years

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so jealous. If we had any blocking, this owuld of been our storm. A long duration monster like last years

I'm not jealous of the folks who are going to get ice from this storm. I think the residents of Indianapolis would gladly trade places with you. A good chunk of them are going to be without power for days.

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Don't want to talk about ICE! I'm wishing this storm was taking dead aim at us! I was just looking at the dynamics of the beast. WOW!! Some areas of the country are going to unloaded upon. A 2100 mile path of a foot or more, 33 states effected, 9 Blizzard Warnings and a 100 million people under the gun. It's beautiful!! I love of a snow storm of this magnitude ...it is awesome. I guess if your here you do too. I suppose we can take solace in our winter last year. The rest of the country watched US! Just looking back at the pictures of my wife and kids having so much fun playing and enjoying the white that fell all over our area are sweet memories. Good times. Our time will come again. In a way, the challenge of forecasting in the DC metro area is half the fun. Keep the faith.

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Maybe I am sicko, but I'd want the ice to an extent. I'd take being in my apartment without power anyday over being at work with power. Breaks up the montony of everyday living.

Dec 26th storm up in Jersey we got 30 inches of snow, were stranded for 4 days. It was fun. Beats work anyday.

This is a sad turn of events. Rain and warmth for the awhile. Winter seems to be taking a break just in time for Feb.

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