gymengineer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i hear ya. im not saying they are wrong. i already stated i'd rather not touch a freezing rain forecast unless i was forced to. in this instance with this low track i still tend to think that there is a greater shot of ice being 'less than' rather 'greater than' forecast. wasnt the 12z nam colder than it had been though? if so i'd be nervous it was one of it's burps in the short range. it is not very consistent lately. It looks like the 6Z NAM was the coldest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Paraphrasing the NWS link that was provided in that thread, it said to take a "very small twig" and measure the full width of ice. I assume you could do this with a larger branch and than subtract the diameter of the branch. really? i thought it was only one side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It looks like the 6Z NAM was the coldest run. Wasn't yesterday's 18Z NAM the coldest of all the runs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wasn't yesterday's 18Z NAM the coldest of all the runs?. Yes. I was talking about today, but yesterday's 18Z NAM was colder much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 really? i thought it was only one side... Yeah I thought it was take the top and bottom and then average or something like that. No clue. Meanwhile - I think NinjaWarrior should be 5ppd until he/she posts their location. And it should be mandatory to become a member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think the 06Z nam was also pretty cold when I looked at the soundings. The 18Z nam looks very much like yesterday's 12Z run and really shows an unstable layer. Note how the temperature line above the inversion tilts back to the left faster than the curved dashed lines near it. That's a more impressive unstable layer than during our thundersnow event. The surface temps are a little above freezing all the way to HGR on the 18Z nam though I suspect back there the temps might still be right at freezing. Still heavy rain falling at 32 degrees rarely produces freezing rain as the droplets will not be supercooled because the cold layer probably won't be deep enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah I thought it was take the top and bottom and then average or something like that. No clue. Meanwhile - I think NinjaWarrior should be 5ppd until he/she posts their location. And it should be mandatory to become a member. it is... maybe just confused with ellinwood's phrasing. The best way to measure ice accumulation is to break off a very small branch/twig from a tree. Use a ruler to measure the thickness of ice in tenths of an inch. There may be one side of the branch or twig with a greater thickness of ice than the other side. In this instance, please report the average thickness of ice buildup. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/measuringnewsnow_ice.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it is... maybe just confused with ellinwood's phrasing. The best way to measure ice accumulation is to break off a very small branch/twig from a tree. Use a ruler to measure the thickness of ice in tenths of an inch. There may be one side of the branch or twig with a greater thickness of ice than the other side. In this instance, please report the average thickness of ice buildup. http://www.erh.noaa....newsnow_ice.htm Heh you guys are right. I read it wrong. Sorry, I'm exhausted right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone around Winchester getting anything from that batch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone around Winchester getting anything from that batch? Obs thread says there's stuff N of Winchester: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone around Winchester getting anything from that batch? Yes. Mostly sleet, with just an occassional snow flake mixed in. Deck covered. Temp at my house is 24.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe NW MD, certainly not NE... Indeed. Typo on my part. it's mostly a battle that's been going on for yrs. both sides are at fault. OEM and I traded a message or two, we are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm an addict, lurking in the central threads, taking hits off of their excitement and end-of-days advisories. Lucky bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm an addict, lurking in the central threads, taking hits off of their excitement and end-of-days advisories. Lucky bastards. A friend of mine had to travel to O'Fallon, IL for work this week. When he landed this morning, I sent him the forecast from St. Louis NWS office for there. 0.75-1.00" ice tonight, 12-18" snow with 40 mph winds tomorrow and tomorrow night. He didn't seem too pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Winter Storm Warnings up for PA....including the counties bordering MD. 2 to 4 inches of snow with up to 1/2 inch of ice for York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreezyDog Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It just started snowing in SP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'll be curious to see what the DPs do before the precip gets here tomorrow evening. Since the temps probably wont get far above if at all past 32, I know we'll be in trouble out here in the western burbs with a DP of about 27 or lower. If it's above that, I think we'll be OK in general. 18Z NAM IAD forecast (at 18Z Tues): 0.2C/-0.9C 18Z GFS IAD forecast (at 18Z Tues): 1.9C/1.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Starting to snow here in Brooklyn Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Goofy NAM - that's a pretty big difference on feature placement out at 18hrs (across the board), comparing the 18Z run with the 0Z run. Wonder if one had initialization errors in it. Anyways we shall see if it makes a difference around here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Can someone direct me to a thread where I can cry. Watching TWC,browsing accuweather and hearing all the hype about this storm has depressed me.Id kill to be in the midwest. Im on the verge of a maryland winter cancel.Looks like our next few threats currently shown wont materialize.Next thing you know it will be mid February with nothing to show for it.Thats why I always had reservations about hinging the whole winter on February like most on here always seem to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Can someone direct me to a thread where I can cry. Watching TWC,browsing accuweather and hearing all the hype about this storm has depressed me. Im on the verge of a maryland winter cancel.Looks like our next few threats currently shown wont materialize.Next thing you know it will be mid February with nothing to show for it.Thats why I always had reservations about hinging the whole winter on February. go post in the winter complaint thread. Are you like actually crying? Odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 go post in the winter complaint thread. Are you like actually crying? Odd. No im not actually crying.Im just distraught and snow/blizzard envious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow........even Worcester is getting what we would call a HECS.......18-24" of snow, with Boston getting a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I might be one of the few, but I'm grateful for what I get snow wise. The storm last week was a pleasant surprise in a rather hit (and mostly) miss winter. I'm more concerned about travel the next few days, me getting to work and getting my wife to the doctor's for an antepartum checkup this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I might be one of the few, but I'm grateful for what I get snow wise. The storm last week was a pleasant surprise in a rather hit (and mostly) miss winter. I'm more concerned about travel the next few days, me getting to work and getting my wife to the doctor's for an antepartum checkup this week. I suspect you are at your seasonal average or close as I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wow........even Worcester is getting what we would call a HECS.......18-24" of snow, with Boston getting a foot. ORH gets 20 inches twice a week. Nothing new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I like me rain at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I suspect you are at your seasonal average or close as I am. I would guess im at seasonal avg or slightly above but I still want more. Im sick, i have a snow dependency.Im like Ji times 100.I lose sleep over snow I cant help it.I wish I could not let it bother me but i cant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I like me rain at 36 and maybe thunder. the soundings in waldorf Wednesday morning have a nice unstable layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Can someone tell the people in the NY thread an "ice storm" in the New York and its immediate burbs, probably is not going to be like they think it is. I'm sorry, I have a heard time believing Manhattan is going to be encased in a half-inch of ice. Maybe it will happen, but seems doubtful consider they are surrounded by three bodies of water, and sit atop a mega heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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