PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No i do not, i have seen him post alot but he never posts about our area so i never paid attention over the years. A month or so ago he made some silly thread where he basically called for a "weather event" somewhere in the the United States over a week-long period and then pretended he verified when there was some weak OTS coastal low. He ignored all of the criticism in his thread and just kept posting to himself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can mock this if you want, but the birds in Northwest DC certainly appeared to be a step ahead of the game during Wednesday's storm. I was sitting at home about 1 p.m. and all the sudden heard all this ruckus outside. Went to patio and the birds were whipped into a frenzy, all gathering in a tree a block away, squawking louder then I have ever heard them. I also recall a similar situation last year on the Friday morning before Feb. 6 began, and commented on it at time. Now, I have no idea and not smart enough to k now whether I buy if animals have sixth weather senses, but recently I have moved into thinking that perhaps they do. Pretty sure if you have some birds in NW DC who are calling for ice or snow for this event three days hence, cage them and make some money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well LWX must think we are getting an ice event by their latest zone forecasts... Who cares? A few hours before the last event started, LWX thought Baltimore would be getting 1-3 inches of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 thru 24 hrs, NAMs a little colder than 18z, but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The lagging energy guys...that's our focus....we're toast on the midweek thing. Remember that troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 The lagging energy guys...that's our focus....we're toast on the midweek thing. Remember that troops. Randy, Euro gives DCA/BWI .25"+ all snow on the front end I'm happy with that and hope Euro gets some add'l support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not giving up yet...I'm willing to endure a couple more hours of punishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Randy, Euro gives DCA/BWI .25"+ all snow on the front end I'm happy with that and hope Euro gets some add'l support ] Blah, that's likely all BS Mitch...look how it did us with the other stuff that came after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 ] Blah, that's likely all BS Mitch...look how it did us with the other stuff that came after. I know, that's why I'm looking for other model support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmmm Wonder what it is they think will happen east of the apps in our neck of the woods. I've never seen Elkins colder than the Shen Valley in this setup. Maybe they think we see snow this side of the mtns? Been posted several times that the EC shows snow up front. Maybe it'll happen and then we dry out. Keep a little snow for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 00Z nam is right, the big story with the midweek system might be the squall line and convection along it. Look at the sounding at 81hrs and compare the temperature line to the moist adiabat (the curved dashed line) note how the temp line slants off the the left more that the moist adiabat. That's instability. I'm surprised Ian is hyperventilating. It's not a sever look but in winter you never know because the wind fields are so much strong and all you need is for a downward transport of momentum to produce strong winds at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from alein weather.com Sother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates... the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 from alein weather.com Sother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates... the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks dc screwed again....dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from alein weather.com Sother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates... the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 00Z nam is right, the big story with the midweek system might be the squall line and convection along it. Look at the sounding at 81hrs and compare the temperature line to the moist adiabat (the curved dashed line) note how the temp line slants off the the left more that the moist adiabat. That's instability. I'm surprised Ian is hyperventilating. It's not a sever look but in winter you never know because the wind fields are so much strong and all you need is for a downward transport of momentum to produce strong winds at the surface. Thunderstorms for the second week in a row in January ? Looks like Nina is finally asserting herself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The squirrels are extra-furry and the birds are all flying south!!! I swear on my dog's left paw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from alein weather.com Sother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates... the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks That would be some sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, this forum is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, this forum is dead. Well seeing as the GFS looks like crap for us im not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well seeing as the GFS looks like crap for us im not surprised. Yea I started loosing interest once I saw the nam.. Unless we get a super turn around by some miracle (though with the way models have performed this year.. it wouldn't surprise me), this threat is dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 00Z nam is right, the big story with the midweek system might be the squall line and convection along it. Look at the sounding at 81hrs and compare the temperature line to the moist adiabat (the curved dashed line) note how the temp line slants off the the left more that the moist adiabat. That's instability. I'm surprised Ian is hyperventilating. It's not a sever look but in winter you never know because the wind fields are so much strong and all you need is for a downward transport of momentum to produce strong winds at the surface. Given that sounding, we could get some elevated convection with low tops. The lower levels are way too stable to allow the mixed layer with the strong/severe winds to reach the surface. Maybe some gusts to 20-30 mph, but nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea I started loosing interest once I saw the nam.. Unless we get a super turn around by some miracle (though with the way models have performed this year.. it wouldn't surprise me), this threat is dead. I am just hoping it cuts so far west that we get very little rain and then we can get a much better storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed at 0z Wed there's a 1032mb high over SE Canada on the GFS (0z). Watch this whole event trend colder/icier if that's for real. Surface temps would almost certainly be colder than shown in the model - and cold air will erode much more slowly than forecast. I'm not at all convinced we're going to get a blow torch. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You must not read his posts very often. He is a joke. +10000000000000 I've given up on him. I honestly tried to help him by asking the questions he should have been asking himself, but apparently he's just fine being in his happy little world with his "research partner" on another forum that he linked that has people humping his theories. We won't buy that crap here. I find it odd that he can take the time to meticulously make ASCII graphs with his data instead of doing a little copy/paste into Excel where it would literally take him one minute to make a much more readable graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS finally joins the Euro tonight at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just caught all three DC area 11 p.m. weather forecasts and they are about freezing rain storm Tuesday. They seem to be going on their own and not buying the models (but its the weekend crew, so who knows if they've even looked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How about that slug of moisture much further east on 00z GFS and coming North at 126 on GFS Guess that is for other thread. Just trying to post something positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS does have a period of very light frozen precip monday night, but it doesn't really amount to anything. I guess it could make the Tuesday morning rush interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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