JPete Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Indeed. But it looks like the worst is in NE MD, not Central MD. Maybe NW MD, certainly not NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Indeed. But it looks like the worst is in NE MD, not Central MD. I am not going to fight over the map because we can all clearly see it, but there is still a chance in Central and especially North Central MD on that map so he is definitely owed an apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am not going to fight over the map because we can all clearly see it, but there is still a chance in Central and especially North Central MD on that map so he is definitely owed an apology. it's mostly a battle that's been going on for yrs. both sides are at fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am not going to fight over the map because we can all clearly see it, but there is still a chance in Central and especially North Central MD on that map so he is definitely owed an apology. looks like from the map no more than 40-50% chance of >.5 ice in those areas. the preponderance of model data suggests plain rain. an apology is premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that's kinda bullish this far south. did they see the new nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that's kinda bullish this far south. did they see the new nam? It's a colder forecast than the 12Z NAM too. They are deliberately going colder than the models verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that's kinda bullish this far south. did they see the new nam? Maybe they are putting to use that Meteorology degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe they are putting to use that Meteorology degree. Why would a Government employee do that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's a colder forecast than the 12Z NAM too. They are deliberately going colder than the models verbatim. i mean ~40% chance is not that great but it's still kinda bullish imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Maybe they are putting to use that Meteorology degree. zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to ask the same thing as a previous poster. Why is the NOAA/NWS saying this for DC/Arlington for today Rest Of This Afternoon...Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like from the map no more than 40-50% chance of >.5 ice in those areas. the preponderance of model data suggests plain rain. an apology is premature Maybe the pros at HPC see something that most of us don't. I think the thing to do here ( on this forum ) is discuss what we think about what we can see, but realize that our mets and pros and those at HPC and NWS know more than just about any of us do, and, therefore, it's probably unwise to "throw off" on their forecasts and opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ESullivan, I am going out on a limb and saying .25 of ice tonight and tomorrow for you as temps continue to lag behind the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to ask the same thing as a previous poster. Why is the NOAA/NWS saying this for DC/Arlington for today Rest Of This Afternoon...Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Not sure. If I didn't know any better and checked that forecast, saw a winter weather advisory, went outside saw the cloud cover and felt the cold air, it would be hard to believe that we wouldn't be in for some winter weather shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's mostly a battle that's been going on for yrs. both sides are at fault. Yes i know i have been on the boards and have seen the fighting for years. I know both sides are at fault. But after seeing how in this case he just got attacked for speaking the truth i thought an apology was in order. I hate getting involved in fights that are not mine so i will step back now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 looks like from the map no more than 40-50% chance of >.5 ice in those areas. the preponderance of model data suggests plain rain. an apology is premature What the hell does that mean lol. Were not getting plain rain, some snow to Freezing Rain to Cold Rain for Northern MD/Northern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is going to be an interesting delineation zone... THE FREEZING ISOTHERM /DIVIDEBETWEEN FREEZING RAIN AND PLAIN RAIN/ LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ROUGHLY FROM HWY 1 NORTH FROM DC AND I-66 WEST FROM DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to ask the same thing as a previous poster. Why is the NOAA/NWS saying this for DC/Arlington for today Rest Of This Afternoon...Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. well, it looks like some precip is developing overhead. I drove through a brief sleet/snowpellet shower at the I-395/I-495 junction around 4pm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergeek Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why are so many people discounting the actual temps? There are NOT (edit) going to be rise in temps overnight. The QPF is there now. Rain/ What the hell does that mean lol. Were not getting plain rain, some snow to Freezing Rain to Cold Rain for Northern MD/Northern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What the hell does that mean lol. Were not getting plain rain, some snow to Freezing Rain to Cold Rain for Northern MD/Northern VA lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What the hell does that mean lol. Were not getting plain rain, some snow to Freezing Rain to Cold Rain for Northern MD/Northern VA Why are so many people discounting the actual temps? There are going to be rise in temps overnight. The QPF is there now. Rain/ If anyone can decipher either of these please help me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hope my NWS forecast is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hope my NWS forecast is right Where are you located? Would be nice if people put their locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i mean ~40% chance is not that great but it's still kinda bullish imo For the last ZR event, they put us (NW suburbs) into the moderate risk range as well. The way I see it, we are 36 hours out from the onset of the main event, which is still plenty of time for model adjustments in the surface temp fields. I personally think that the position of the high depicted on both the NAM and GFS around 6Z Wednesday should keep the weathermen who have to make a forecast sweating, even if we end up as warm as depicted. That's not to say I expect it to stay ZR--just will be something to keep watching. And as for the secondary low developing off the surface in the last storm, that's definitely not a necessity for a resilient wedge in our area, but as has been mentioned several times in here the midwest low would probably have to stay further to the west to keep our wedge (see 1/27-28/94-- ice storm in the entire area with temps forecasted to be in the 50's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where are you located? Would be nice if people put their locations. FantasyLand, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where are you located? Would be nice if people put their locations. He has been asked that a million times and he always ignores that question. It must be because he is a ninja warrior . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We had a discussion after that storm with BethesdaWx...he had measured around that too but it was determined he was measuring both sides of the surface (branch both sides) only measure the top when reporting. Paraphrasing the NWS link that was provided in that thread, it said to take a "very small twig" and measure the full width of ice. I assume you could do this with a larger branch and than subtract the diameter of the branch, but you do measure the full width of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 For the last ZR event, they put us (NW suburbs) into the moderate risk range as well. The way I see it, we are 36 hours out from the onset of the main event, which is still plenty of time for model adjustments in the surface temp fields. I personally think that the position of the high depicted on both the NAM and GFS around 6Z Wednesday should keep the weathermen who have to make a forecast sweating, even if we end up as warm as depicted. That's not to say I expect it to stay ZR--just will be something to keep watching. And as for the secondary low developing off the surface in the last storm, that's definitely not a necessity for a resilient wedge in our area, but as has been mentioned several times in here the midwest low would probably have to stay further to the west to keep our wedge (see 1/27-28/94-- ice storm in the entire area with temps forecasted to be in the 50's). i hear ya. im not saying they are wrong. i already stated i'd rather not touch a freezing rain forecast unless i was forced to. in this instance with this low track i still tend to think that there is a greater shot of ice being 'less than' rather 'greater than' forecast. wasnt the 12z nam colder than it had been though? if so i'd be nervous it was one of it's burps in the short range. it is not very consistent lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at the 18z gfs 2m temps from 36-42 it's hard to fault NWS for being a little cautious. That freezing line never gets too far north of us and it just kinda remains stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.