Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 But not .5 worth of ice. i dunno.. if it was cold this is a lot of precip http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_048m.gif regardless everyone is probably too cold with the forecasts so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i dunno.. if it was cold this is a lot of precip http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_048m.gif regardless everyone is probably too cold so whatever. I guess we shall wait and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I guess we shall wait and see what happens. I'm telling you people...Ian clones are coming. Stock up and be vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wet rain as opposed "dry rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 DT gracious: Wxrisk.com *** ALERT *** Folks I have to take time out to say... BEFORE the Midwest event actually begins... that Meteorologist Larry Cosgrove's forecast for this Midwest Blizzard has been stellar!! My ORIGINAL idea was more of Ohio valley storm with the NEXT one being a more classic Midwest track. L...arry argued otherwise and he will be 100% correct... FABULOUS forecast LC !!!!!!!!!. Stop reposting DT's stuff here. We all know how to get to facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 as opposed "dry rain" Also, as opposed to "frozen rain"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW OR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. http://weather.noaa....e/md/mdz006.txt I am not interested in your thoughts or reposts, I just talked to them. You are about to look like an idiot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Where is OEM1 getting his information? The NWS. Ill tell you what Randy, why dont you sit in on the damn call and let a few of these idiots call you a liar. If your interested, just let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I am not interested in your thoughts or reposts, I just talked to them. You are about to look like an idiot here. potential.. dwindling as per new nam and pretty much all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The NWS. Ill tell you what Randy, why dont you sit in on the damn call and let a few of these idiots call you a liar. If your interested, just let me know. Calm down buddy - you may be correct. NWS told you .5 of ice for N Central MD. That would warrant an Ice storm warning... so... if that is what they are telling you, then they better get on the ball with issuing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, on 36 hour panel, plenty of rain and temps back to being really on edge for a shot of ice, particularly along m/d line and even down to BWI areas. At 42 when the deluge arrives, looks like rain for all in our area, no ice. Im sure the 0z nam will come back with mostly ice, its been flip floping for a few runs.. another forecasting nightmare lol. The only ice storm I can think of this year was the one in mid january where nearly everyone on this board thought we were getting pretty much nothing and the cold air stuck around longer than expected. Given that and the tendency for CAD to linger longer than what model's prog, I dont see why the precautionary solution which NWS is taking as well as most other mets is being bashed. It looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 potential.. dwindling as per new nam and pretty much all other guidance. Thats why when they said it, two of us (Montgomery and Baltimore) asked for clarification and they again came back with the potential for OVER .50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Calm down buddy - you may be correct. NWS told you .5 of ice for N Central MD. That would warrant an Ice storm warning... so... if that is what they are telling you, then they better get on the ball with issuing that. Ive let some of you guys sit in on calls before, hell, Ian has been on an OPM call with me before. I have other things to do than go around exaggerating and I am certainly not happy with being called dishonest or a liar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt082005 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thats why when they said it, two of us (Montgomery and Baltimore) asked for clarification and they again came back with the potential for OVER .50". If I remember correctly at some point between the WWA and WSW it said Northern Baltimore for .1-.2 then possible .25+, so that is kind of close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok time to stop this conversation about the nws potential forecast. most of us know how to read a model or a forecast at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ive let some of you guys sit in on calls before, hell, Ian has been on an OPM call with me before. I have other things to do than go around exaggerating and I am certainly not happy with being called dishonest or a liar. Well perhaps your post regarding .5 for N Central MD came off a bit misleading. What exactly were you told? .50 QPF or .50 of ICE accumulation? There is a very big difference between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wouldn't surface temps need to be in the low to mid 20's for a .50 of ice? Upper 20's / low 30's would require very long duration of very light precip for that type of accretion. Mod rain wont accrete with temps in the upper 20's / low 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok time to stop this conversation about the nws potential forecast. most of us know how to read a model or a forecast at the very least. Sorry Ian - just don't want people to be confused over .5 of ice or .5 of qpf. I'll drop it and just watch the models and see what NWS issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Zone forecast for Balt and for DC: Rest Of This Afternoon...Snow or sleet likely. Highs in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wouldn't surface temps need to be in the low to mid 20's for a .50 of ice? Upper 20's / low 30's would require very long duration of very light precip for that type of accretion. Mod rain wont accrete with temps in the upper 20's / low 30's. The last ice storm was temps at 29-31 and I was able to get maybe ~.4'' ice accretion. It was during the night though so That does matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thats why when they said it, two of us (Montgomery and Baltimore) asked for clarification and they again came back with the potential for OVER .50". Confirmed by the discussion: "Significant ice accretion /on the order of half an inch/ is expected across northern Maryland from Harford to Allegany County as well as portions of the eastern West Virginia Panhandle and northern Shenandoah Valley." Additionally, why does the zone forecast say snow and sleet likely THIS AFTERNOON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The last ice storm was temps at 29-31 and I was able to get maybe ~.4'' ice accretion. It was during the night though so That does matter. We had a discussion after that storm with BethesdaWx...he had measured around that too but it was determined he was measuring both sides of the surface (branch both sides) only measure the top when reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 FWIW I guess Master Of Disaster is owed an apology by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I guess Master Of Disaster is owed an apology by some. Meh. What's it a picture of? My phone doesn't like it and wont render. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We had a discussion after that storm with BethesdaWx...he had measured around that too but it was determined he was measuring both sides of the surface (branch both sides) only measure the top when reporting. ah.. Well in my case I broke a slab of ice off of the grass.. so Id recon definately at least .2-.25'' of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why are people posting NWS forecasts? We come here to get information beyond those forecasts. Let everyone else live by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Meh. What's it a picture of? My phone doesn't like it and wont render. It is a map from the NWS of the chances of .50 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is a discussion and map from Eric Horst at Millersville. http://snowball.millersville.edu/~cws/SpecialWeatherDiscussion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It is a map from the NWS of the chances of .50 of ice. Indeed. But it looks like the worst is in NE MD, not Central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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