stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty sad to see a 1034 high parked over southern Ontario and have it result as rain... I think it will trend colder for Wednesday. It usually does..nobody is relying on super CAD or any stupid stuff said in this thread, but even experienced mets have said CAD does hang in a bit longer. Probably not enough to make a huge difference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At the end of the day, this does look to be a minor event for most of us south of counties bordering the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It usually does..nobody is relying on super CAD or any stupid stuff said in this thread, but even experienced mets have said CAD does hang in a bit longer. Probably not enough to make a huge difference though. You also have to account for the low-level WAA going on, which is also underdone on the models. The CAD+WAA combo. is what's creating those crazy temp. gradients to the south, and if one can edge over the other we'll either see freezing rain a little more south (similar to what my forecast looks like now, though I'm thinking of changing it), or we'll see the rain move a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah teachers are like preparing to have a day off and all, whereas last week no one thought we'd have a day off and were totally caught off guard. Funny how this works. I'm trying to tell them but they won't listen. My brother and his wife are teachers and this is their mindset exactly. I wonder if the local mets are calling for ice storm to cover their backsides after last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, the talk of "ice storm" is in the air. If anything, stuff is going to close down around here just for the simple fact people will see it raining and assume its freezing cause that is what the weather people have been saying for the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Updated the Wednesday map... Lifted that crap a bit further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeannapolis Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At the end of the day, this does look to be a minor event for most of us south of counties bordering the M/D line. And that is probably just as well. Snow = happiness sleet = bitterness because your so close to snow. freezing rain = nothing redeeming about it. If I have a day off...I want to enjoy it. Plus it causes just too much damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 RGEM basically has nothing frozen/freezing for anyone south of the M/D line except for a round of light snow/flurries in northern and central MD tonight. All rain for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm sure all the schools will be closed tomorrow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Updated the Wednesday map... Lifted that crap a bit further north. thanks for the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, schools likely will be closed based on the forecast, at least Tuesday. Everyone is expecting something big.... I bet LWX is hoping for an ice storm at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HiltonHeadWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hope so, though It can be pretty but is way too destructive. I sufffered though nearly a week without power following an October ice storm in Garrett County several years agao. That got old real fast and it was a lot warmer then! RGEM basically has nothing frozen/freezing for anyone south of the M/D line except for a round of light snow/flurries in northern and central MD tonight. All rain for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like LWX issued new WSW's Frederick VA/Clarke/Montgomery/Loudoun/Howard added to WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm sure all the schools will be closed tomorrow anyway. I doubt that. This is not going to amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I doubt that. This is not going to amount to much. That's never stopped the schools around here from canceling/delaying/early releasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS website is crawling for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS website is crawling for me today. Don't worry, it's not just you. I've been having problems with it (work and home) since around 7-8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS website is crawling for me today. Its a bit slow, but I can get stuff on it. Congrats on your winter storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't worry, it's not just you. I've been having problems with it (work and home) since around 7-8am. Yeah I figured there were tech issues. Oh well... I do see they bumped MoCo into the WSW for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Its a bit slow, but I can get stuff on it. Congrats on your winter storm watch Thanks I guess lol. I would think that they're talking more about far northern portions of the county. And it might be bumped back to an adzy knowing LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah I figured there were tech issues. Oh well... I do see they bumped MoCo into the WSW for tomorrow night. Yeah, its in the zones and in the AFM. I am waiting for the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks I guess lol. I would think that they're talking more about far northern portions of the county. And it might be bumped back to an adzy knowing LWX Or upgraded to a warning halfway through the event its going to be an interesting fight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1214 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 MDZ009-010-VAZ027-028-030-031-042-WVZ055-501-502-010030- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0003.110202T0200Z-110202T1600Z/ MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN- HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...WINCHESTER... FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM... PETERSBURG 1214 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah I figured there were tech issues. Oh well... I do see they bumped MoCo into the WSW for tomorrow night. The WSW for MoCo is iffy... I was thinking 0.2" of freezing rain with more risk on getting less compared to getting more. I'm glad they did it, though, since there is a decent chance that it could happen and the public needs to be aware of the potential (though less likely to happen) so they can be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The WSW for MoCo is iffy... I was thinking 0.2" of freezing rain with more risk on getting less compared to getting more. I'm glad they did it, though, since there is a decent chance that it could happen and the public needs to be aware of the potential (though less likely to happen) so they can be prepared. They jumped down into Loudoun as well for the WSW. Anywho, I expect either FZRN adv tonight or WWA's for the rest of N VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The WSW for MoCo is iffy... I was thinking 0.2" of freezing rain with more risk on getting less compared to getting more. I'm glad they did it, though, since there is a decent chance that it could happen and the public needs to be aware of the potential (though less likely to happen) so they can be prepared. I begged for my loudoun one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I begged for my loudoun one Remember when Loudoun used to be the snowy county around here...now since Ellinwood has come on it's like we are right next to Richmond or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Upper 30s or upper 50s for DCA. You make the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Remember when Loudoun used to be the snowy county around here...now since Ellinwood has come on it's like we are right next to Richmond or something. I haven't even been here a year (Woo Feb 6!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's much more difficult to identify marginal temp winter threats post-GFS enhancments. IMBY, I could almost always count on the NAM being warmer than the GFS on these setups, a little too warm. Now the GFS is a bit warmer on average in forecasted surface temps. It was 5-6 degrees too warm during the ice event two weeks ago. It was 4 degrees too warm on last Wednesday's event. Since the GFS surface temps never gets below freezing here Tuesday night... curious to see the actual verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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