stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is definitely pulling a last minute south thing because ORD qpf has been cut in half since yesterday morning. Suicide warnings in Chitown? They should be fine with some lake enhancement. At least, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM usually overdoes qpf but if correct this thing drops 1-2' of snow on a ton of places from MO all the way up to ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 31F is probably not going to be cold enough for ice accumulation with heavy rain, particularly on road surfaces. Probably some trees, metal railings and that sort of thing might see some ice develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wonder if Hagerstown could be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I don't know, during the valentines day 2007 storm it poured rain in my area at 32F and while there was a collection of water in areas there was also a significant ice accumulation on just about everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 With such a thick warm layer sleet seems a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 THINK SLEET!!!!! otherwise, UGH. Amen. Pray for some depth to that cold air. I just looked at the NAM on the NCEP site and saw all that precip, then checked over at Allan's for ground temps and was stunned to see those temps. Winchester to Martinsburg to Hagerstown would be in deep doo doo if this model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not fair.. so much whining in sne and so much payoff http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_p60_078m.gif i guess we have to start ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Southern MD is not 75-100 miles south of baltimore. More like 50-60. The distance from just inside the northen Baltimore beltway due south to the Potomac is more than 80 miles. It's further if you draw the line a little further SE to the true southern tip of MD west of the Bay (close to 90-95+ miles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The distance from just inside the northen Baltimore beltway due south to the Potomac is more than 80 miles. It's further if you draw the line a little further SE to the true southern tip of MD west of the Bay (close to 90-95+ miles). thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The distance from just inside the northen Baltimore beltway due south to the Potomac is more than 80 miles. It's further if you draw the line a little further SE to the true southern tip of MD west of the Bay (close to 90-95+ miles). Having made the drive for my job, Columbia to La Plata is about 55 road miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 thanks No worries - I think the "truth" lies somewhere in between the 55-60 you cited and the 75-100 number that the other poster threw out. While 80-100 (depending on how and where you measure) might be technically accurate, the distance from downtown Baltimore to many of the "major" cities in Southern MD is much less - and is probably more like the 55-60 number you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's funny how the public is way more aware of this storm than the last. People are convinced DCPS is gonna be closed at least 1 day this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is a whiff on the first batch below central md...a tad wormer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's funny how the public is way more aware of this storm than the last. People are convinced DCPS is gonna be closed at least 1 day this week. we've become a society of pansies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's funny how the public is way more aware of this storm than the last. People are convinced DCPS is gonna be closed at least 1 day this week. Yep pretty funny - not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Non event coming folks...shift your attention to the weekend and on congratulating the entire Midwest and NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This doesnt look all that impressive to me for Northern MD....Looks like 10-40% chance of .25 ice or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is critically warmer than the NAM for central MD and the mountains. Only would be FZRA concerns for NE MD (probably Balt or Carroll County eastward). I'd lean toward the NAM's temps in a CAD situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty sad to see a 1034 high parked over southern Ontario and have it result as rain... I think it will trend colder for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Non event coming folks...shift your attention to the weekend and on congratulating the entire Midwest and NE but CAD is always colder than modeled CAD!!11!!11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 but CAD is always colder than modeled CAD!!11!!11 Good luck....I'm gonna go be bitter for a bit now....be back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's funny how the public is way more aware of this storm than the last. People are convinced DCPS is gonna be closed at least 1 day this week. Yeah teachers are like preparing to have a day off and all, whereas last week no one thought we'd have a day off and were totally caught off guard. Funny how this works. I'm trying to tell them but they won't listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good luck....I'm gonna go be bitter for a bit now....be back later. i hope you get 1" of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good luck....I'm gonna go be bitter for a bit now....be back later. I thought you lived for rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty sad to see a 1034 high parked over southern Ontario and have it result as rain... I think it will trend colder for Wednesday. frustrating storm indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 your the 4th person wishcasting for this Just because he said he thinks things may still trend colder and models are underdoing the cold air - which we saw 2 weeks ago - doesn't mean he's wishcasting. Did you ever consider he's using experience or instinct, which many still value instead of just whipping back and forth with ever model run? No where did I see him predict a crippling ice storm. A period of freezing rain, perhaps enough for some WSW in some northern locales could still be in the cards. If I was giving a forecast I wouldn't look at the GFS and say, oh, ok, nothing to see here, move along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anybody think Va Beach has a shot at 80 this week? Jeez, the temp gradient across Va is going to be crazy at some point on Wed. East/west and North/South. Mid day Wed has temps in the 20's in the west, 70's in the east, and near freezing in the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just because he said he thinks things may still trend colder and models are underdoing the cold air - which we saw 2 weeks ago - doesn't mean he's wishcasting. Did you ever consider he's using experience or instinct, which many still value instead of just whipping back and forth with ever model run? No where did I see him predict a crippling ice storm. A period of freezing rain, perhaps enough for some WSW in some northern locales could still be in the cards. If I was giving a forecast I wouldn't look at the GFS and say, oh, ok, nothing to see here, move along. Hmmmmmm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good luck....I'm gonna go be bitter for a bit now....be back later. Seriously. I knew this was going to mostly be a whiff for immediate metro area, but continued to hope for an 11th hour change. How fitting (for me) that I'm doing hot dogs on the grill tonite for dinner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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