Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at the Wednesday threat... the freezing rain and sleet contours on my map will probably have to shift 30 miles north of where they are in northern VA and central MD. It's looking like it will be mostly rain for MoCo and other areas after some freezing rain early Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thing I am curious about is whether the models are starting to see the arctic front and trying to decide if it wants to follow that or as in previous runs cut into it. Think the 06Z ensemble maybe hinting at that and if that's the case I think depending on where that is located (looks like it's in southern MD, northern VA right now) I think north of that may do very well. you mean with snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hard to say at this point. All the models are trending colder as it is and if we start seeing the low coming farther south on the models I would think that would also indicate an even colder solution. If these trends continue I wouldn't be surprised to see almost an all frozen event (snow to sleet to freezing rain) down to just north and west of Baltimore and DC especially in the valleys. so you think the low is going to all of a sudden cut south of the path given by most models?? The mean appears to cross cent pa, or md. . That would be a hell of a shift and !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you mean with snow? Was talking generally about a longer duration of a mixed bag of frozen precip (Guess that's not a good thing ). Think once you get deeper into the colder air (maybe 75 to 100 miles?) off of the artic front is where you probably want to be for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Was talking generally about a longer duration of a mixed bag of frozen precip (Guess that's not a good thing ). Think once you get deeper into the colder air (maybe 75 to 100 miles?) off of the artic front is where you probably want to be for more snow. 75-100 miles is farther south than baltimore if the artic front is southern md. That would imply baltimore stays snow, correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 75-100 miles is farther south than baltimore if the artic front is southern md. That would imply baltimore stays snow, correct?? front is south of us, but we're on the southern edge and it will erode with the path of the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 so you think the low is going to all of a sudden cut south of the path given by most models?? The mean appears to cross cent pa, or md. . That would be a hell of a shift and !!! That's been my thinking for a few days now that the low would have a hard time cutting into the arctic air and would be more inclined to follow the arctic front giving us a more southern solution. It looks like the 06Z GFS ensembles do show this. Problem is the 06Z is an off run of the GFS and I am more inclined to believe the 00Z or the 12Z runs. I am curious whether the 12Z will follow that trend or not. If I were a betting man, I would listen to the mets and their thinking over mine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Out to 24, nam w/ light precip and temps in upper 20s around bwi north. Precip and temps near or just below freezing dca? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 75-100 miles is farther south than baltimore if the artic front is southern md. That would imply baltimore stays snow, correct?? The front won't be there it will be farther north. How much further north depends on how the low responds to the arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at the Wednesday threat... the freezing rain and sleet contours on my map will probably have to shift 30 miles north of where they are in northern VA and central MD. It's looking like it will be mostly rain for MoCo and other areas after some freezing rain early Wednesday morning. I thought it looked a little far south when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I were a betting man, I would listen to the mets and their thinking over mine though. Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At or just below freezing through 12z Wednesday morning for areas north of BWI per NAM. And precip amounts of >0.5". >0.75" for HGR and Winchester, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 At or just below freezing through 12z Wednesday morning for areas north of BWI per NAM. Sounds like a good amount of freezing rain north of those areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Lot of precip in there at that timeframe too. Baltimore on edge of significant ice storm, north of baltimore looks good for a lot of ice. Hagerstown to york to elkton best chance I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any chance the artic air will hold and see no change over to rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any chance the artic air will hold and see no change over to rain..... Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 JYO--mostly precip with temps below 32. Oh oh... MON 7A 31-JAN -4.7 -2.1 1031 84 45 560 536 MON 1P 31-JAN -2.6 -2.9 1033 78 66 0.00 561 535 MON 7P 31-JAN -3.3 -2.5 1029 90 96 0.00 560 537 TUE 1A 01-FEB -2.9 -0.8 1027 95 90 0.02 561 539 TUE 7A 01-FEB -2.5 3.2 1024 95 81 0.03 561 542 TUE 1P 01-FEB 1.3 4.8 1021 90 88 0.01 562 545 TUE 7P 01-FEB 1.0 4.2 1021 99 84 0.00 563 546 WED 1A 02-FEB -0.5 3.9 1018 97 100 0.10 561 547 WED 7A 02-FEB -0.3 6.2 1008 97 100 0.74 559 553 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 JYO--mostly precip with temps below 32. Oh oh... MON 7A 31-JAN -4.7 -2.1 1031 84 45 560 536 MON 1P 31-JAN -2.6 -2.9 1033 78 66 0.00 561 535 MON 7P 31-JAN -3.3 -2.5 1029 90 96 0.00 560 537 TUE 1A 01-FEB -2.9 -0.8 1027 95 90 0.02 561 539 TUE 7A 01-FEB -2.5 3.2 1024 95 81 0.03 561 542 TUE 1P 01-FEB 1.3 4.8 1021 90 88 0.01 562 545 TUE 7P 01-FEB 1.0 4.2 1021 99 84 0.00 563 546 WED 1A 02-FEB -0.5 3.9 1018 97 100 0.10 561 547 WED 7A 02-FEB -0.3 6.2 1008 97 100 0.74 559 553 Hagerstown is up chits creek based on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 my 70 and rain here will be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hagerstown is up chits creek based on the NAM Shopping trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hagerstown is up chits creek based on the NAM If the precip starts with temps in the upper 20's...its going to be really hard to budge for us based on previous experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was going to post that the NAM was close to an ice storm in the NW burbs, but you beat me to it. Looks like it's 31 when the main slug of precip heads through. Considering 10,000 ft up is in the 40's, I think for it to be a big deal, we need the surface to be even colder. If the models trend a little colder at the surface... trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM has JYO at heavy rain and 31 so I think we will be ok with this one...if it's off by a degree or so and it's 29 and rain...we might be in trouble. Hagerstown is 28 and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's fun to watch the models battle the CAD vs. the WAA... both are usually underdone, so they may end up canceling each other out and produce the solutions we're seeing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM has JYO at heavy rain and 31 so I think we will be ok with this one...if it's off by a degree or so and it's 29 and rain...we might be in trouble. Hagerstown is 28 and heavy rain. 1.36" falls before it reaches 32 at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 is there any chance the artic air will hold and see no change over to rain..... There's always that chance, but it is very remote and unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Does 32 at the surface even matter much though? With the warm temperatures aloft, shouldn't 30 or so be what is needed for an ice storm? I feel like the rain won't have time to freeze if it's just 32 since its so much warmer up in the air..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 75-100 miles is farther south than baltimore if the artic front is southern md. That would imply baltimore stays snow, correct?? Southern MD is not 75-100 miles south of baltimore. More like 50-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM is definitely pulling a last minute south thing because ORD qpf has been cut in half since yesterday morning. Suicide warnings in Chitown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM has JYO at heavy rain and 31 so I think we will be ok with this one...if it's off by a degree or so and it's 29 and rain...we might be in trouble. Hagerstown is 28 and heavy rain. There's a chance you'll be colder. I've lived around here long enough to have gone through many times where models are way too quick with scouring out CAD.....or the CAD becomes more pronounced as we get closer to an event. Down here in the city, we're toast no matter what...but out where you are and my former home of HGR could be in trouble. Even upper Mont. Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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