Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hush. I just saw it Yeah but you're an admin not a mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Per gfs all snow through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this might be the first time i've ever dreamed of being in MO http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SL/SN mix currently in EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this might be the first time i've ever dreamed of being in MO http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_048m.gif That is sweet, i am truly jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking less than epic for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this might be the first time i've ever dreamed of being in MO http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_048m.gif Wow...impressive looking, even though I wish it was me will still be fun to watch manifest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS looks the same.. It really wouldn't take much for this to be a significant ice storm for this area so Im still not throwing that solution out.. Definately not 50 and rain though.. More like 40 and rain warmest.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 this might be the first time i've ever dreamed of being in MO http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_048m.gif Yeah, St Louis looks to be obliterated on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, St Louis looks to be obliterated on that map. West of St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, St Louis looks to be obliterated on that map. Places like Tulsa could get 30" unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You still don't seem to understand the dynamic of our region... Oh I understand it, but it doesn't mean that there's no room for change. Something as simple as taking OT discussion to a new thread when there's getting to be an extended discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z looks like it has trended colder then the 00Z GFS. The surface 32 degree mark doesn't reach the Mason/Dixon line until the 54 hr on the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z Nam has also trended colder compared to the 00Z. North and west of Baltimore are very close to an all frozen event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Snow chase to St. Louis...looks like they may get the brunt more than Chicago. Freezing rain today and tonight, over to sleet and then snow tomorrow. Ice accumulations followed by 12-18 inches of snow with 40 mph winds during the snowfall. 36 hours or more of precip. Wow. Although Chicago is under a blizzard watch for potentially 'life-threatening conditions'. Amazing reading the details from the NWS for the affected areas of the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From Baltimore northward a WSW issued (but no love for Leesburg or Winchester from Sterling): ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET MAY OCCUR AT THE ONSET. * ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOPING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY AND REMAINING IN THE LOWER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. Still not seeing it myself in terms of a big deal, but I guess it has a chance to be more than a nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looking at the radar which has shown precip through northern VA and southern MD and the temp map with the sharp temp gradient down to that same location I would have to think that is the leading edge of the arctic air. Think locations south of that would be all rain for the event except for some isolated spots of freezing rain in some of the valleys. Anyone between that and the Mason Dixon line would be a snow to slop to rain with more slop and less rain the farther north you go. Being deeper into the arctic air it looks like locations around the Mason Dixon line could be talking a half decent shot of snow before changing over to a moderate sleet and ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still think its going to be nasty here in the morning. We all know how the CAD likes to hang on longer than modeled. I hope it changes to rain quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still think its going to be nasty here in the morning. We all know how the CAD likes to hang on longer than modeled. I hope it changes to rain quickly though. Central md and loudon county dont go above 34 the entire event per nam... We stay below 32 until around 53 hours when there is a brief warm up to above 32 and then the storm lifts out and we are dropping temps. TBH Seeing how CAD is undermodeled I definately see this being close to all frozen at least up to frederick, caroll, and baltimore counties. Moco and howard and loudon may also be in this as well but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just looked over the 06GFS mean. It has brought the low farther south through central MD compared to the 18Z and the 00Z which have the low going through central PA. The individual members are not out for the 06Z yet so am not sure if that mean is because of some members showing a transfer to the coast thus skewing the placement of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just looked over the 06GFS mean. It has brought the low farther south through central MD compared to the 18Z and the 00Z which have the low going through central PA. The individual members are not out for the 06Z yet so am not sure if that mean is because of some members showing a transfer to the coast thus skewing the placement of the low. Actually the members are out and it looks like they have shifted south with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wxrisk.com *** ALERT FOR MIDWEST FOLKS & TRADERS*** HISTORIC BLIZZARD OF exceptional INTENSITY LIKELY for Northeast OK... eastern KS MOST (not all) of MO ...all of western central and Northern ILL... Northern Third of IND... southern MI ...20 to 30 inches snow winds to 50+ mph 7 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Actually the members are out and it looks like they have shifted south with the low. all that does is insure Boston/SNE stay snow and we have more ice to deal with gimme the rain and let me keep my power; snow cover can't stay around forever so what's a few extra days of it if the price is God-awful ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Actually the members are out and it looks like they have shifted south with the low. What does this mean precip wise? More ice, sleet, or longer duration of it before the switch to rain (if there would be one at all)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to drive from Winchester to inova fairfax for doctors appts tomorrow? You guys think I should reschedule? Are we looking at another gridlock situation post 3pm or a more typical traffic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If there's any inkling of bad weather, there will be gridlock, no matter what shape the roads are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have to drive from Winchester to inova fairfax for doctors appts tomorrow? You guys think I should reschedule? Are we looking at another gridlock situation post 3pm or a more typical traffic pattern. the way it looks now, yes but as you know, the problem is, freezing rain forecasts are usually not very accurate it could turn out to be very dangerous, or it might not I would wait until later today, if you can, before canceling as there should be more consensus after 12Z models, and better yet, 18Z NAM (assuming you can wait that long) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 all that does is insure Boston/SNE stay snow and we have more ice to deal with gimme the rain and let me keep my power; snow cover can't stay around forever so what's a few extra days of it if the price is God-awful ice Thing I am curious about is whether the models are starting to see the arctic front and trying to decide if it wants to follow that or as in previous runs cut into it. Think the 06Z ensemble maybe hinting at that and if that's the case I think depending on where that is located at that time (looks like it's in southern MD, northern VA right now) I think north of that may do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What does this mean precip wise? More ice, sleet, or longer duration of it before the switch to rain (if there would be one at all)? Hard to say at this point. All the models are trending colder as it is and if we start seeing the low coming farther south on the models I would think that would also indicate an even colder solution. If these trends continue I wouldn't be surprised to see almost an all frozen event (snow to sleet to freezing rain) down to just north and west of Baltimore and DC especially in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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