mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro ensembles are colder than the operational run for next weekend's threat and the following week. MDstorm how do they look for Mon night.Tues morning? I may be dead by next week for all I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My only remaining hope for the Tuesday threat is that somehow the data from the reconaissance flights makes some huge dramatic difference in how it is modeled. And that is as weenie a hope as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My only remaining hope for the Tuesday threat is that somehow the data from the reconaissance flights makes some huge dramatic difference in how it is modeled. And that is as weenie a hope as it gets. I wouldn't be shocked if tonight the the models jumped on the Euro idea of an initial slug of snow and then basically nothing else as the main storm misses us to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how do they look for Mon night.Tues morning? I may be dead by next week for all I know They look a little colder than the op around here. Looks to stay below 0 at 850 until early Tuesday before temps climb. Surface low into eastern OH. Hopefully we see a little front end snow Monday night into Tuesday. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 They look a little colder than the op around here. Looks to stay below 0 at 850 until early Tuesday before temps climb. Surface low into eastern OH. Hopefully we see a little front end snow Monday night into Tuesday. MDstorm thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Boy don't we miss that blocking this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if tonight the the models jumped on the Euro idea of an initial slug of snow and then basically nothing else as the main storm misses us to the NW. I would take that. Plus, as one must always note, as long as NE and NYC get theirs, we're all winners... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Boy don't we miss that blocking this year... Not really. The mega block hosed us pretty good early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldn't be shocked if tonight the the models jumped on the Euro idea of an initial slug of snow and then basically nothing else as the main storm misses us to the NW. 0z tonight will bring us all back in. All solutions will take a hard right to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not really. The mega block hosed us pretty good early on. The strength of the northern stream has hosed us this year (and lack of southern). This overrunning event initially had some eerie similarities to 2003 until the models have shown a weak high to the NE and the trough too far to the west. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z tonight will bring us all back in. All solutions will take a hard right to the east. Wish we could keep that block over Hudson Bay...also further south would be lovely. Think you see that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z tonight will bring us all back in. All solutions will take a hard right to the east. This is probably why MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1219 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID JAN 29/1200 UTC THRU FEB 02/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NEW CANADIAN AND PREFERENCES ...UPPER TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: UKMET THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTION WHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVE POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...AND GIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLE INITIALIZATION...PRODUCES THE MOST PREFERRED SOLUTION. I wouldnt be surprised if models are significantly different come 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Like Tracker commented - You know it is BAD when we are praying we get dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Have model errors or new data ever really helped us to more snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Have model errors or new data ever really helped us to more snow? Nah, just gotten us real excited like on boxing day. I still maintain those westward shifts were errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Have model errors or new data ever really helped us to more snow? There's always a first time, right? At the least, "initialization errors" plus "reconaissance data" means I will stay up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Have model errors or new data ever really helped us to more snow? actually, I believe 1/25/00 there was missing data off the SE coast that turned out to be crucial I could dig it up somewhere, but others may also recall it being discussed afterward but one out of how many storms admittedly ain't good odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z tonight will bring us all back in. All solutions will take a hard right to the east. Agreed this will all get shoved to the south maybe tofar south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from LC: This is going to be one BRUTAL storm. Did I leave anything out? Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 5:10 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-29-2011-at-5-10-p-m-ct#ixzz1CTPHRJc8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 From Roger Smith: So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Roger Smith is a bozo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 from LC: This is going to be one BRUTAL storm. Did I leave anything out? Continue reading on Examiner.com: WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, January 29, 2011 at 5:10 P.M. CT - Houston Weather | Examiner.com http://www.examiner....t#ixzz1CTPHRJc8 Not very promising for our area. I guess we knew that may be the case. I was more bummed out over his thoughts on the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Roger Smith is a bozo. All we need now is for someone to post about how the squirrels are extra-furry or the birds are all flying south as further signs for our impending doom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed this will all get shoved to the south maybe tofar south On a list of concerns with this set-up, too surpressed is somewhere lower than a worry that we will get five feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Roger Smith is a bozo. I am taking it that means you do not agree with his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All we need now is for someone to post about how the squirrels are extra-furry or the birds are all flying south as further signs for our impending doom... You can mock this if you want, but the birds in Northwest DC certainly appeared to be a step ahead of the game during Wednesday's storm. I was sitting at home about 1 p.m. and all the sudden heard all this ruckus outside. Went to patio and the birds were whipped into a frenzy, all gathering in a tree a block away, squawking louder then I have ever heard them. I also recall a similar situation last year on the Friday morning before Feb. 6 began, and commented on it at time. Now, I have no idea and not smart enough to k now whether I buy if animals have sixth weather senses, but recently I have moved into thinking that perhaps they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am taking it that means you do not agree with his thoughts. You must not read his posts very often. He is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You must not read his posts very often. He is a joke. No i do not, i have seen him post alot but he never posts about our area so i never paid attention over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You must not read his posts very often. He is a joke. Yea, I've read that stuff through the years but I'm too much of a realist to buy into a lot of crap that goes beyond science. A lot of his posts go into the realm of what I consider for entertainment purposes only unless you believe in the "extra sensory" or "paranormal" world. I remember some of his posts on eastern talking all about the electrical connections in the atrmosphere driving storms and he is always talking about the lunar phases having a serious impact on the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well LWX must think we are getting an ice event by their latest zone forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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