Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 huge tx/la coast snow http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_288m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 no end of winter on the 15th http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_360m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm GGEM http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg just a bit too far east for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 ggem look is good for this range and really the gfs is not horrible. last wed looked like this on some runs around this range -- strung out positive vort with a max passing to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The golden rule this year is to take the opposite of what LWX has on day 4 and that's your weather. On Jan 20 storm, the forecast was snow - and we got nothing Last storm was rain - and we got snow. This upcoming storm was snow - and we're getting rain. All I can say is batten down the hatches! Friday: Sunny, with a high near 33. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16. Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Kicker on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 i wish there were more models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 what's the nogaps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ukie says what storm -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011013100/slp24.png nogaps -- https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=ngp_namer&set=Core strung out POS... no one really gets anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ukie says what storm -- http://moe.met.fsu.e...13100/slp24.png nogaps -- https://www.fnmoc.na..._namer&set=Core strung out POS... no one really gets anything LOL I just busted out laughing reading this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And Ji has now canceled this storm, in the NYC subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a disaster. Not even a storm. Winters over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a disaster. Not even a storm. Winters over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Michnick is right. La nina is la no no for dc. Oh to be in chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Michnick is right. La nina is la no no for dc. Oh to be in chicago You just got 10" of snow last week, weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You just got 10" of snow last week, weenie On 5:1 ratioS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On 5:1 ratioS Which has much more impact than 10" of 15:1 fluff. In fact, you canceled winter right before a 4-8" storm last year, which happened a week before you got 34" from Snowmageddon. If you think winter is over, or this storm is over, please back it up with facts and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 06Z DGEX still shows are weekend storm and has trended colder and east of the 18Z. Very close to an all snow event North and West of Baltimore with a slop fest to rain south. Pretty decent precip totals as well. DGEX gets a bad rap but I do believe it was the first to show this potential storm if it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z Euro looks alright from what I can tell on Ewall. 1008mb low east of Ocean City, MD, at 0z on Sunday. Looks like we get some precip based on the RH charts, particularly areas south and east. Anyone have details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z Euro looks alright from what I can tell on Ewall. 1008mb low east of Ocean City, MD, at 0z on Sunday. Looks like we get some precip based on the RH charts, particularly areas south and east. Anyone have details? Looks pretty blah to me except for around the shore which would have temp issues. Of course the 12Z had a low running to our west and then transferring to the coast so hard to get a feel for what the Euro wants to do. I am in the same boat as you with being able to only look at the freebies with the Euro. Trying to figure out what the Euro is doing between the 24 hour jumps is a b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The golden rule this year is to take the opposite of what LWX has on day 4 and that's your weather. On Jan 20 storm, the forecast was snow - and we got nothing Last storm was rain - and we got snow. This upcoming storm was snow - and we're getting rain. Their long range forecast is based off the GFS. I thought that was blatantly obvious but I guess not for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 our only real hope on this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 our only real hope on this NAM run Wow does that trough look beautiful over West Texas. Where oh where will it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 our only real hope on this NAM run It does look good Mitch. I hope it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It does look good Mitch. I hope it's right with the appearance of the SE ridge, albeit weak, I would be surprised if it passes to our south, though this winter has been kind enough to remind us of the many different ways we can have a chance for snow and it not work out, so never say never I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a disaster. Not even a storm. Winters over Only if the redskins had someone who could punt like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 with the appearance of the SE ridge, albeit weak, I would be surprised if it passes to our south, though this winter has been kind enough to remind us of the many different ways we can have a chance for snow and it not work out, so never say never I guess I think it will..at least the GFS has it going that route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it will..at least the GFS has it going that route Think he means the whole precip shield...not the low pressure center itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it will..at least the GFS has it going that route i think he meant way south. i'd say there's still more a risk it goes too far north than misses south. plus we need good dynamics etc. it wont be simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What a disaster. Not even a storm. Winters over looks like a certain met agrees with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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