PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Jumped ahead in time quite a bit it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well, the good thing is that we still have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Again, no HP ANYWHERE! Yeah, those HPs really helped us out last Wednesday. Thank goodness they were there to assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 850 low forms... right where we like it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_850_132l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 500 looks like it is going to go right through DC again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, those HPs really helped us out last Wednesday. Thank goodness they were there to assist. he only got 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 18z was better than 12z...that's good. im not really looking at the surface.. the 500 vort was better at 12z. the northern stream is flexing this run--already. :-/ http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_114m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Fine, I'll be happy until 6Z dammit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im not really looking at the surface.. the 500 vort was better at 12z. the northern stream is flexing this run--already. :-/ http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_114m.gif Why is it good for the H5 vort to be held back if cold air is limited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 500 looks like it is going to go right through DC again if the storm was tomorrow that might be an ok spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Why is it good for the H5 vort to be held back if cold air is limited? well in that respect it's not but i'd still like it south of us in this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I guess I'd buy http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p24_138l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if the storm was tomorrow that might be an ok spot Is the vort steadily going north? Seems like it is just bouncing around a little. I understand the idea of tracking it, but I don't get the angst over the exact positioning. Over DC is OK at 130 hours, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 On to the Ian Birthday storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is the vort steadily going north? Seems like it is just bouncing around a little. I understand the idea of tracking it, but I don't get the angst over the exact positioning. Over DC is OK at 130 hours, no? Don't we want it south of the area for a good storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is the vort steadily going north? Seems like it is just bouncing around a little. I understand the idea of tracking it, but I don't get the angst over the exact positioning. Over DC is OK at 130 hours, no? i dont think it's done much .. it was only like 1 run that closed it off and shot it south of us. but we dont have much room with it from here out if it stays there. the euro isnt as good either though i guess i'd favor the gfs? with a +nao it's going to want to try to rain on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't we want it south of the area for a good storm? I guess we want it in a certain spot for Wes to get all lathered up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't we want it south of the area for a good storm? Ian will know better than me but as long as it is not north of us it is ok. Of course south would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ian will know better than me but as long as it is not north of us it is ok. Of course south would be much better. But not too far south, because then we get screwed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 But not too far south, because then we get screwed! we threaded the needle once so im hopeful it's a pattern that can repeat. but we still have to do it again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 But not too far south, because then we get screwed! Yes but 50 to 100 miles south of where it is now would be optimal for us i think. Ian is just worried about the inevitable north trend at the end, which if it does this time we will be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 we threaded the needle once so im hopeful it's a pattern that can repeat. but we still have to do it again... Pretty much. I am with you on focusing on the 500 vort mostly. Hope it stays where it is or drifts south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 we threaded the needle once so im hopeful it's a pattern that can repeat. but we still have to do it again... This thread the needle crap is not good for my heart or my sleep patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This thread the needle crap is not good for my heart or my sleep patterns. The term is a bit abused around here. Every storm is thread the needle for us basically. Really, only the LES zones don't have to worry much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The term is a bit abused around here. Every storm is thread the needle for us basically. Really, only the LES zones don't have to worry much. Yea but whatever happened to the old Miller A which just comes up the coast with a nice HP of 1040 in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 The term is a bit abused around here. Every storm is thread the needle for us basically. Really, only the LES zones don't have to worry much. i think it's more that we dont run into an ideal setup that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i think it's more that we dont run into an ideal setup that often. It does seem like there is always a problem, though. Even in the biggies last winter I remember a few folks stressing over this or that. If there was ever a storm that was "impossible to miss" I suppose it was the first FEB HECS. The second storm was actually touch and go for a while and a much trickier setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Good lord, the Ian Birthday storm just sped up by 36 hours, but still snowstorm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 still got the next week event but it looks miller b ish motherlode http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_240m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 In the NYC thread it was mentioned that 2/6/2003 was a possible analog for this storm..........that brought us a nice 6-8" snow. I am optimistic about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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