weathervswife Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Day 10 looks colder too. Nice eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks nice at the surface but the vort shifted north -- 500 looks a little more like the euro not a big deal at this pt i guess If there's one thing I've learned this winter, it's not to let the surface depictions either suck you in or kick you in the gut. If we can keep the vort in a decent place, I'll take it and let things play out as they will. Of course, for someone like me it's a lot easier to look at the Hs and Ls and the pretty greens and blues and purples on the surface map and get my hopes up/dashed from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like the 500 goes right over DC...probably not good but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Day 10 looks colder too. Nice eye candy. It's been showing something there for a while. Getting the Feb MECS on my bday would be a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's been showing something there for a while. Getting the Feb MECS on my bday would be a treat. wait until its 3-5 days out and shows a mix for us and another bliz for NE the models just plain stink this year in the medium range its been like every other NINA where they slam us 5+ days out, only to come to their senses in the short range this has become an exercise in futility and pain, just like every other NINA post 95/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 wait until its 3-5 days out and shows a mix for us and another bliz for NE the models just plain stink this year in the medium range its been like every other NINA where they slam us 5+ days out, only to come to their senses in the short range this has become an exercise in futility and pain, just like every other NINA post 95/96 Everyone keeps repeating this crap, and I don't know why. All this despair over something that's very complex and about a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Everyone keeps repeating this crap, and I don't know why. All this despair over something that's very complex and about a week away. that was in reference to the next week (feb 8-10) "storm" i think. but even that one has looked OK on the GFS. not going to plan on it tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Everyone keeps repeating this crap, and I don't know why. All this despair over something that's very complex and about a week away. except for 7 hours on Wednesday, the winter has sucked you call it despair, but its fact and very typical of NINA's for the computers to show snow in the med range only to pull the system north (even Wes confirms that it happens) the complexity does not change the outcome for us I feel very comfortable saying that the storm Ian pointed out will not hit us as progged since not one this year at that range has and all but one in any range has missed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 4-8 maybe for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 except for 7 hours on Wednesday, the winter has sucked you call it despair, but its fact and very typical of NINA's for the computers to show snow in the med range only to pull the system north (even Wes confirms that it happens) the complexity does not change the outcome for us I feel very comfortable saying that the storm Ian pointed out will not hit us as progged since not one this year at that range has and all but one in any range has missed us you're talking about the d10 storm? that's an easy assumption if so. we've only got a few weeks left to be optimistic... i still like the general pattern the gfs has been advertising over the CONUS at least following this next system. there are issues but we can't dictate what we're giving unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 except for 7 hours on Wednesday, the winter has sucked you call it despair, but its fact and very typical of NINA's for the computers to show snow in the med range only to pull the system north (even Wes confirms that it happens) the complexity does not change the outcome for us I feel very comfortable saying that the storm Ian pointed out will not hit us as progged since not one this year at that range has and all but one in any range has missed us You are above normal to date. I like you mitchnick but please don't make these Ji-like remarks. You are better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you're talking about the d10 storm? that's an easy assumption if so. we've only got a few weeks left to be optimistic... i still like the general pattern the gfs has been advertising over the CONUS at least following this next system. there are issues but we can't dictate what we're giving unfortunately. We have about 3 weeks left I would think... after about Feb 25 it starts getting dicey for us in regards to big time snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You are above normal to date. I like you mitchnick but please don't make these Ji-like remarks. You are better than that. Ok... if you consider having 10-15 inches above normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok... if you consider having 10-15 inches above normal... To date it is slightly above normal for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok... if you consider having 10-15 inches above normal... Season to date it's probably close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have about 3 weeks left I would think... after about Feb 25 it starts getting dicey for us in regards to big time snows i'd prob extend into the first week or two of march this yr but you get diminishing returns with time most likely at least near the cities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you're talking about the d10 storm? that's an easy assumption if so. we've only got a few weeks left to be optimistic... i still like the general pattern the gfs has been advertising over the CONUS at least following this next system. there are issues but we can't dictate what we're giving unfortunately. in all honesty, I just want the calender to fast forward to April and end it I let my guard down and got optimistic for a day or 2 starting Wednesday and that was a mistake I may have busted on my call of no more than 5" at BWI for the rest of the winter, but I won't be surprised if it ends up being a near missed stellar forecast NINAs really do suck around here no matter how we try (and we all do) to convince ourselves otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Oh god....grumpy MItch is back....has he yelled at the kids to get off his lawn yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 in all honesty, I just want the calender to fast forward to April and end it I let my guard down and got optimistic for a day or 2 starting Wednesday and that was a mistake I may have busted on my call of no more than 5" at BWI for the rest of the winter, but I won't be surprised if it ends up being a near missed stellar forecast NINAs really do suck around here no matter how we try (and we all do) to convince ourselves otherwise wasnt it you saying this wasnt a nina to compare to past ninas last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 in all honesty, I just want the calender to fast forward to April and end it I let my guard down and got optimistic for a day or 2 starting Wednesday and that was a mistake I may have busted on my call of no more than 5" at BWI for the rest of the winter, but I won't be surprised if it ends up being a near missed stellar forecast NINAs really do suck around here no matter how we try (and we all do) to convince ourselves otherwise Um, no. Considering climo, this winter has been decent around BWI. Nothing like NYC and the north, but we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 You are above normal to date. I like you mitchnick but please don't make these Ji-like remarks. You are better than that. wanna bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This discussion about how "good" the winter has been motivated me to look back a little more closely. I am terrible at keeping stats, so help is appreciated. I recall the following events with roughly the amount of snow I recorded. I am sure I received some snow on Dec 26th, but can't find any final obs report. Did I forget anything? Jan 26 - 14 Jan 21 - 2 Jan 11 - 4 Dec 26 - 2 Dec 16 - 2 Basically, I have about 24 inches now, give or take. That is actually well above strong La Nina climo averages. I think this winter hurts mostly because we missed the Dec 26th event. Had we gotten even 4-8 in that we'd be cheering this winter, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Um, no. Considering climo, this winter has been decent around BWI. Nothing like NYC and the north, but we take what we can get. ppl can call last week a fluke and say it doesnt matter compared to the rest of the winter but a lot of our winters are like that. these next two weeks are historically quite snowy in the area. considering where we are avg-wise i would hold off any additional assessments for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Um, no. Considering climo, this winter has been decent around BWI. Nothing like NYC and the north, but we take what we can get. there's climo comparisons, then there are results if you look at all the storm chances we have had, we have cashed in on only 1 those are terrible statistics this winter has been evil to snow lovers and by the way, you've done much better than me this winter, probably 50%+ more, so I can understand your disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 This discussion about how "good" the winter has been motivated me to look back a little more closely. I am terrible at keeping stats, so help is appreciated. I recall the following events with roughly the amount of snow I recorded. I am sure I received some snow on Dec 26th, but can't find any final obs report. Did I forget anything? Jan 26 - 14 Jan 21 - 2 Jan 11 - 4 Dec 26 - 2 Dec 16 - 2 Basically, I have about 24 inches now, give or take. That is actually well above strong La Nina climo averages. I think this winter hurts mostly because we missed the Dec 26th event. Had we gotten even 4-8 in that we'd be cheering this winter, IMO. logically it's hard to say this winter totally sucks at this pt. one issue for sure is that we've missed a lot of events but that's because there has been something to track just about every 3-5 days. a lot of winters have less activity to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This discussion about how "good" the winter has been motivated me to look back a little more closely. I am terrible at keeping stats, so help is appreciated. I recall the following events with roughly the amount of snow I recorded. I am sure I received some snow on Dec 26th, but can't find any final obs report. Did I forget anything? Jan 26 - 14 Jan 21 - 2 Jan 11 - 4 Dec 26 - 2 Dec 16 - 2 Basically, I have about 24 inches now, give or take. That is actually well above strong La Nina climo averages. I think this winter hurts mostly because we missed the Dec 26th event. Had we gotten even 4-8 in that we'd be cheering this winter, IMO. 2" on Dec 26 sounds way too high even though you live a bit further east. I got a dusting. It really was that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This winter has been more active than I could of ever imagined given the fall forecasts. However...missing the Dec 26 was an absolute killer that ruined the winter for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2" on Dec 26 sounds way too high even though you live a bit further east. I got a dusting. It really was that bad. Not sure, but the difference between a dusting and 2 inches is maybe another hour or three of snow. Not that much of a delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 there's climo comparisons, then there are results if you look at all the storm chances we have had, we have cashed in on only 1 those are terrible statistics this winter has been evil to snow lovers and by the way, you've done much better than me this winter, probably 50%+ more, so I can understand your disagreement I was one of the loudest complainers after the Dec 26 shaft, but I can't agree with you that this winter still sucks. Yes, we missed out on a lot, and no we're not getting anything close to what the north is getting. We just have to suck it up, take what we can get, and hope we end up above average by the end. We live in an area where a 7-14" storm with lightning, thunder, and 3"/hr rates should change the way you think about a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This winter has been more active than I could of ever imagined given the fall forecasts. However...missing the Dec 26 was an absolute killer that ruined the winter for me There have been a ton to track that's for sure...January hasn't been horrid compared to many January's of the recent past...again our winter stinks only when we start comparing it to other regions so far....if no internet we would probably think this winter has been decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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