mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think BWI is above average for snowfall for this point in the season, and we know how cold its been. Not a bad winter, really. its all relative so, so close to being a great winter, yet the numbers say so far away there's still time, so we'll see if anything can come out of the changing pattern over the next few weeks that might save it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 By looking at the Euro through 120, I'd guess it will try to phase the storm into a biggie- I see the closed 500mb LP ejecting through TX (quite far ahead of the GFS) and nothern stream energy moving SSE through the western Dakotas. WAA has started so the precip probably isn't far away (I don't have access to Euro precip maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 EUro is giving snow then a decent amount of Ice for Tues morning over .3" for all 3 airports Is that over .3 ice or combined ice and snow?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 its all relative so, so close to being a great winter, yet the numbers say so far away there's still time, so we'll see if anything can come out of the changing pattern over the next few weeks that might save it Well, that's a 'glass half-empty' way to look at it, I guess. But if I had been able to promise you in Nov. we'd be MBN temps and AN snow this season, I'm sure you'd have taken that, with -1.5C+ in Nino 3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is that over .3 ice or combined ice and snow?. my guess would be for us, an inch, 2 at the very most, of snow followed by ice with total qpf a hair over .3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is that over .3 ice or combined ice and snow?. Makes since for more freezing/frozen Tues/Tues night. The trend to track the LP and upper energy further west Tues would make it have less scouring power east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 my guess would be for us, an inch, 2 at the very most, of snow followed by ice with total qpf a hair over .3" Ok thank you, i will take whatever frozen i can get plus with the Euro usually to warm we may get a little longer period of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro not quite as favorable at 500 as the gfs but the euro has been behind the ball on this one so far looks like all rain around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro is ugly just pack it in for awhile looks like we are just heading into a bad pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In a much similar fashion to last week, everyone's bringing up the "no cold air," "no high pressure" and all that crap back into the game. Are all of your memories that short? deja-friggen-vu Oh and Fozz, FWIW the last storm was supposed to happen on the 25th about 5-6 days out and it happened over a day later. 1.5 days won't be too hard to get this far out I'm not saying that I'm right... I'm just looking at the recent pattern trends. Modelcasting this one will probably burn a lot of people again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 euro is ugly just pack it in for awhile looks like we are just heading into a bad pattern It looks almost exactly like it did a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 In a much similar fashion to last week, everyone's bringing up the "no cold air," "no high pressure" and all that crap back into the game. Are all of your memories that short? deja-friggen-vu Oh and Fozz, FWIW the last storm was supposed to happen on the 25th about 5-6 days out and it happened over a day later. 1.5 days won't be too hard to get this far out I'm not saying that I'm right... I'm just looking at the recent pattern trends. Modelcasting this one will probably burn a lot of people again. yep. as long as the gfs looks like it does right now the people upset about surface output need to go back to class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think that vortex over Hudson's Bay is going to be doing us any favors over the next week or 2 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's still been a good winter in northern MD. It hasn't been all that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It hasn't been all that good. What is your snow average and how much do you have so far this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think that vortex over Hudson's Bay is going to be doing us any favors over the next week or 2 http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest I agree, however that still doesn't preclude a thread the needle deal fro saturday. It's certainly a long shot without having a negative nao but is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Jma says delayed but snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Like Phineas says..."Warm and wet, followed by cold and dry"....stinks but he's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We want the storm to come out no later than Fri impacting us Fri night/ Saturday. Better chance of a HP area to the north of the storm. Guidance seems to want to bury the storm in the SW, causing it to be delayed in kicking out. I'm not sure we've had a case where it cuts off or lingers down there- so it'll be interesting to see the evolution over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We want the storm to come out no later than Fri impacting us Fri night/ Saturday. Better chance of a HP area to the north of the storm. Guidance seems to want to bury the storm in the SW, causing it to be delayed in kicking out. I'm not sure we've had a case where it cuts off or lingers down there- so it'll be interesting to see the evolution over time. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z looking alot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z has the s/w coming out quicker..this is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z has the s/w coming out quicker..this is good nice 3-6 dc -ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here's comes Midlo with the rain smiley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Here's comes Midlo with the rain smiley Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good call 4-8 maybe for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Phin left a nice comment in the sne thread, but good luck with the low next week guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks nice at the surface but the vort shifted north -- 500 looks a little more like the euro not a big deal at this pt i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The cold air must be all dynamics. Not crazy about the setup at all, but the surface is purdy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z DGEX destroy us... with mild rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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