chris21 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I think you'll get decent snow out there as the vort comes thru. Thanks a lot for the feedback Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 please close this thread. This storm isnt worth wasting another word on Then do us all a favor and feel free not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 the 18z gfs is rather underwhelming overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 0z nam? not worth mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 not worth mentioning Why? It has a nice .25-.5" rain total for us....except leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 close http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_048m.gif the gfs is still in the "room for surprise" zone. not sure the surprise would be amazing but.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS still wants to throw some QPF back our way, I know temps are still marginal, but its deff different than the NAM with that feature..the model disagreement continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 close http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048m.gif the gfs is still in the "room for surprise" zone. not sure the surprise would be amazing but.. Thats the upper level low vort thats trying to give us that precip right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 close http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_048m.gif the gfs is still in the "room for surprise" zone. not sure the surprise would be amazing but.. I'm glad you posted this. At least it means I can see something. It looks like that feature is getting better. I expected a little better surface result, but it isn't much different. But, who knows? I do know this. The past two marginal temp events here have both been modeled too warm, at least during the precip stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Thats the upper level low vort thats trying to give us that precip right? yes. it has still been shifting south slightly on the gfs overall. on the max passes just south of d.c. it seems. at this rate it's not making it where we need it but it could still prove to bring some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 yes. it has still been shifting south slightly on the gfs overall. on the max passes just south of d.c. it seems. at this rate it's not making it where we need it but it could still prove to bring some snow. Yeah, I forget, is the EURO more like the NAM or GFS with this? Because I know the NAM looks further north with it...doesnt give us much of anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'm glad you posted this. At least it means I can see something. It looks like that feature is getting better. I expected a little better surface result, but it isn't much different. But, who knows? I do know this. The past two marginal temp events here have both been modeled too warm, at least during the precip stages. Well I think Wes made some points not in it's favor and it is marginal at best. At this pt if I were in elevation NW of the cities I might be slightly hopeful for whitened ground. This vort looks a good bit better than it did in addition to being a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 new gfs run is looking a lot better. Slower and further south with the vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 new gfs run is looking a lot better. Slower and further south with the vort. Problem is still the fact it runs the 500 trough and energy right through MD. Northern MD around the Mason Dixon line would have a shot with that set up for maybe a few inches. Think the rest of the area would be lucky to see more then just a change over to flurries with what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Panhandle of WVa has best shot at white ground. Track just isn't shifting fast enough for there to have much hope for DC proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Panhandle of WVa has best shot at white ground. Track just isn't shifting fast enough for there to have much hope for DC proper When don't they have the best shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Gotta love storms where it snows with single-digit temps in Chihuahua, Mexico, snows in Monterrey, Mexico, and progs to rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 When don't they have the best shot? when the track and energy goes else where as I have observed countless times over the past 30 years still thinking cold may over perform tonight and tomorrow and I end up below freezing for all or most of the event at my cabin in eastern WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12Z NAM looks ugly for any snow chances. Shifted the 500 energy north and now goes through N MD and SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 12Z NAM looks ugly for any snow chances. Shifted the 500 energy north and now goes through N MD and SE PA. And it's getting into the time range where it usually isn't that bad. The vort needs to go south of us enuf to get us in the deformation zone and that doesn't looks like it is likely. Barring that we dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 My Accuweather forecast is LOLworthy. It says I get .25 inches of ice tonight and 9 inches of snow on the 9th-10th. Oh Accuwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS just trended to the NAM everyone through central PA is smoked. vort is further north too...funny how the coastal is really not even the real precip maker for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS just trended to the NAM everyone through central PA is smoked. vort is further north too...funny how the coastal is really not even the real precip maker for anyone. Smoked? 3-6 inches is hardly smoked.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 FRZA advisory issued for tenth inch of ice or less for LWX CWA N and W of I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 18Z NAM pulls the 500 energy even farther north into central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 been getting sleet here on and off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Interestingly, the overhead digital sign on I-95 between 175 and 32 noted that salt pre-treatment was in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I don't see any precip getting in here anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's something how these vorts keep getting amped up- remember how this thing looked 2-3 days ago? And it's a hoss on the latest NAM. Brings some hope for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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