Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yeah I noticed what appeared to be a slight 500 vort improvement on the 12z nam. It seemed slightly south of it's previous runs. Am I wrong to think that if the 500 vort were to come just south of us we would have a better chance of a little wraparound? yeah but it still has a bit to go. the 6z gfs was almost tantalizingly close to being interesting. that solution is only valid for a few more min tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i think that was a joke. unless i am like OEM and have an imposter sending out a newsletter. If I come across one, I'll let ya know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 i think that was a joke. unless i am like OEM and have an imposter sending out a newsletter. Issue 1: The naming of storm threats and why that's an awesome idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 And then there's KHOU getting 1-3" of mix on the far NW-ern side of this thing. I'll take my IPs where I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS at 60 is of interest, I think, if you would like to see some flakes fly this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I guess this was a slight improvement from 6z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 I guess this was a slight improvement from 6z on the GFS. it's more or less the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I guess this was a slight improvement from 6z on the GFS. Maybe an hour or two of light/mod snow Sat night? Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 500's look like they have improved. Without going back and comparing it looks like it is bringing the trough in a little farther south. Between the 12Z NAM and GFS I think we have seen some improvement for the chances of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 last week we had a well developed comma way to the west this time we are looking for it to develop right overhead/mainly west. not the best recipe. this is a long thread for a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 it's more or less the same. It's pretty similar and suggests the potential for a brief period of snow at the end of the storm but even then I think the boundary layer temps will be marginal. I think in terms of temps it might not be quite as good as the surface zero line is well to our north and west and 54 and only gets to dc at around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I actually think 6z was slightly better, but its nothing marked vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 last week we had a well developed comma way to the west this time we are looking for it to develop right overhead/mainly west. not the best recipe. this is a long thread for a rainstorm. Yes and we had an 850 low go to our south, this time we had no 850 low and gneral warm advection out ahead of the system and then have to get enough vorticity advection to hope that it overcomes downsloping as the low pulls away. A much different animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Looks pretty similar to 6z. GFS continues to weaken that northern vort, which is good for us. The southern vort also was progged to go to our west for so long and now it basically goes overhead around hour 57. If we can get that pushed even farther south, areas N/W of 95 might be in business. Verbatim, 12z GFS is probably dusting-2" for areas N/W of 95 at the tail end...probably associated with the vort passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 better than what we were looking at yesterday though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Problem I see is even if we can get the 500's to cooperate we are still dealing with very marginal temps at best throughout the lower atmosphere and the surface, and I just can't see enough dynamics to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Problem I see is even if we can get the 500's to cooperate we are still dealing with very marginal temps at best throughout the lower atmosphere and the surface, and I just can't see enough dynamics to overcome that. GFS sounding at 60hr for BWI is above freezing from about 925mb and below. But max temp in that column is 2.6C. So if areas farther N/W are a bit colder, I can see that as snow. Actually...the 57hr (when the precip is likely falling) actually has a colder profile. Below freezing down to 950mb and max temp of 1.7C right at the surface. That should be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 GFS sounding at 60hr for BWI is above freezing from about 925mb and below. But max temp in that column is 2.6C. So if areas farther N/W are a bit colder, I can see that as snow. Actually...the 57hr (when the precip is likely falling) actually has a colder profile. Below freezing down to 950mb and max temp of 1.7C right at the surface. That should be snow. I could see it ending as a brief period of snow but don't see it having any potential to accumlate as I don't see this as having high precipitation rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 the euro looks toasty thru 48.. pops a low in wv at least temprarily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 looks like it spits out a little snow at the end in north md but a good bit warmer on the front end for everyone .25"+ for dc area, .5"+ balt/ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 looks like it spits out a little snow at the end in north md but a good bit warmer on the front end for everyone .25"+ for dc area, .5"+ balt/ne please close this thread. This storm isnt worth wasting another word on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Eh, even a single flake falling out of the sky would be a victory. Nowcasting and obs are going to be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 18z NAM still trying to wrap something around at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM is a bit better with the h5 presentation at 48 vs 12z 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This run just wound that puppy up something fierce off coast of Maine (986 low) and is showing a pretty good dumping across part of SNE and most of NNE. So it's probably onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hooray for boston! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_060m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM is a bit better with the h5 presentation at 48 vs 12z 54. Yes but we still would be fighting downsloping as we never close off an 850 low to our south and the comma head looks to be to our north. That means we have to do it with the comma tail which is always a dicey deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Do not forget in weather the comma head is always better than the comma tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At least it looks a lot better for skiing out in canaan valley, had a hard time believing i'd see much rain at 4200' with the projected setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 At least it looks a lot better for skiing out in canaan valley, had a hard time believing i'd see much rain at 4200' with the projected setup. I think you'll get decent snow out there as the vort comes thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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