Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 hmm the ggem doesnt look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 hmm the ggem doesnt look that bad. Now if the Euro does not look to bad in about 50 minutes then maybe we can squeeze a little snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Now if the Euro does not look to bad in about 50 minutes then maybe we can squeeze a little snow out of this. 12z was a bit better than 0z... the gfs has really de-emphasized that northern vort the last few runs (12, 18, 0z). still got a bit to go tho. even then it could be marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 o6Z Nam has a closed 500 low running through Pittsburgh. Needless to say it is a little warm for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 6z nam is eeewwwwwwwwwww Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 03Z SREF Looking ugly as well. Shows no snow for anybody except for maybe some tail end flurries as the low ramps up for the interior of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yuck. So is it GGEM/GFS/EURO vs NAM/SREF?? EURO warm at surface, but it always is anyway. NAM looks pathetic, I tend to worry when the SREF & NAM agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Yuck. So is it GGEM/GFS/EURO vs NAM/SREF?? EURO warm at surface, but it always is anyway. NAM looks pathetic, I tend to worry when the SREF & NAM agree. Nam after 48 hours gets a little iffy on whether you want to trust it or not. As far as the SREF I am kind of Blah when it comes to trusting it in the longer range. That said, the other models aren't looking much better when it comes to snow with probably the GFS leading the way with what looks like it may be some half decent back end snow. I did have hopes up my way in Hanover, PA of seeing a semi decent snow event even though areas south of me would probably be mostly rain. The way it is looking at this point though I will be very lucky if I see an inch of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 06Z GFS looks better with the 500's with it swinging the trough through the MD area. It also shows a decent slug of back end snow. Not an expert on Norlun features but have to wonder if that is what it is showing with a band of .25-.5 just north and west of DC, Baltimore corridor when the 850's look good for snow. Does have .1 to .25 of precip around 95 but think that would be a rain to snow situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 6Z GFS is still far out to nail the sfc temp profile, bit it looks like ice/rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody got the 6z ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 6Z GFS is still far out to nail the sfc temp profile, bit it looks like ice/rain to snow? Don't take much stock in the off runs of the GFS so I really don't look to hard at the temp profiles. Think the 12Z and especially tonight's 00Z will give us a better idea on where we stand. NAM is also getting into it's 48 hour range and I feel has a better handle on temp profiles then the GFS so the next couple of runs will be telling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody got the 6z ensembles? Looks colder then the Op. Has the 850 running maybe 35 to 40 miles NW of the cities as the storm is passing through. Looks like a general .25-.5 throughout the area. 500's look similar to the op with it bringing the trough through MD. Maybe a touch south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Anybody got the 6z ensembles? They're on Ewall. All of them have the 850 0C contour to our north/west when the precip arrives, but several of them do bring it back south far enough to end as snow for most of us...definitely those north of I-95. Some of those members also still have a fair amount of precip over us when that happens. Some of the GFS members have a monster of a storm next week for the Ian's B-day threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 They're on Ewall. All of them have the 850 0C contour to our north/west when the precip arrives, but several of them do bring it back south far enough to end as snow for most of us...definitely those north of I-95. Some of those members also still have a fair amount of precip over us when that happens. Some of the GFS members have a monster of a storm next week for the Ian's B-day threat. The mean looks better then the individual members that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The mean looks better then the individual members that's for sure. The 00z ensemble mean looked very nice some accumulating snow on the backside of the storm this weekend (always suspicious of that, however). 06z mean has a similar temp drop, but less precip on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 00z ensemble mean looked very nice some accumulating snow on the backside of the storm this weekend (always suspicious of that, however). 06z mean has a similar temp drop, but less precip on the tail end. The GFS Op has been advertising backend snow with what looks to be a norlun feature, maybe? I would think the chances are greater if that were the case but you never know exactly where that will set up. I am with you as far as general back end snow though. Doesn't matter what the models show it just never seems to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM still doesn't care about what the GFS is trying to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The 00z ensemble mean looked very nice some accumulating snow on the backside of the storm this weekend (always suspicious of that, however). 06z mean has a similar temp drop, but less precip on the tail end. The only way that happens is for the vort to get a couple of degrees south of us when it comes east. The gfs has been trending south and the 06Z version would end as a period of snow at least for those west and north of the city. The Nam would dry slot us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 The only way that happens is for the vort to get a couple of degrees south of us when it comes east. The gfs has been trending south and the 06Z version would end as a period of snow at least for those west and north of the city. The Nam would dry slot us. Not to trust the NAM simulated radar at hr 60 or anything but it does bring precip back into the area after we have been dry slotted and after 850's would support snow north and west of the cities. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_060s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not to trust the NAM simulated radar at hr 60 or anything but it does bring precip back into the area after we have been dry slotted and after 850's would support snow north and west of the cities. http://www.nco.ncep....am_ref_060s.gif I can't believe there are 36 pages for a rain threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 the nam is moving toward the gfs imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 NAM still doesn't care about what the GFS is trying to do. the nam is moving toward the gfs imo Not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not sure... just trace out where it's put the 500 vort in our neck the last few runs to where it is at 12z. the gfs is still not that great tho maybe 12z will be another step better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I can't believe there are 36 pages for a rain threat. I wouldn't say it's a total rain threat areas west of I95 via NWS have mixed precip in the forecast. If you were to take the blend of say the GFS/GGEM we'd be in business. That's a big "if" though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Not sure... As between me and Ian, to be clear, side with Ian (duh, I know). I am interested in what he has to say, and will be subscribing to his newsletter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 just trace out where it's put the 500 vort in our neck the last few runs to where it is at 12z. the gfs is still not that great tho maybe 12z will be another step better. Yeah I noticed what appeared to be a slight 500 vort improvement on the 12z nam. It seemed slightly south of it's previous runs. Am I wrong to think that if the 500 vort were to come just south of us we would have a better chance of a little wraparound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 just trace out where it's put the 500 vort in our neck the last few runs to where it is at 12z. the gfs is still not that great tho maybe 12z will be another step better. Thank you sir As between me and Ian, to be clear, side with Ian (duh, I know). I am interested in what he has to say, and will be subscribing to his newsletter... Ian? Newsletter? Where can I sign up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 Ian? Newsletter? Where can I sign up? i think that was a joke. unless i am like OEM and have an imposter sending out a newsletter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 I wouldn't say it's a total rain threat areas west of I95 via NWS have mixed precip in the forecast. If you were to take the blend of say the GFS/GGEM we'd be in business. That's a big "if" though You and I are definitely sitting this one out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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