Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 What does the vort do, does it ever get to our south? the maps i have are not terribly easy to decipher accurately compared to the gfs/nam etc. it looks like it passes closer than previous but not south. overall it's pretty miller b'ish. there is a surface reflection near nc initially but it sorta is undefined till about our latitude when it starts going to town. i sent you an e-mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Usually we get excited about that track...usually I see no reason to not be cautiously optimistic at this point. yeah we need the vort to be further south but compared to what things were looking like yesterday this is atleast worth watching now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I see no reason to not be cautiously optimistic at this point. yeah we need the vort to be further south but compared to what things were looking like yesterday this is atleast worth watching now. Agree. At least it is something to track along with next week. I am trying to keep my expectations at near 0 levels. Not sure I ever recovered from X-mas going from a WSW to flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I see no reason to not be cautiously optimistic at this point. yeah we need the vort to be further south but compared to what things were looking like yesterday this is atleast worth watching now. im hoping for a 37 degree rain instead of a 41 degree rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the maps i have are not terribly easy to decipher accurately compared to the gfs/nam etc. it looks like it passes closer than previous but not south. overall it's pretty miller b'ish. there is a surface reflection near nc initially but it sorta is undefined till about our latitude when it starts going to town. i sent you an e-mail. Thanks, I'm not very excited about the prospects for weekend. My blog will be coming out shortly. Next week might be interesting. At least we'll have cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Thanks, I'm not very excited about the prospects for weekend. My blog will be coming out shortly. Next week might be interesting. At least we'll have cold air. models are interesting today. JMA is off shore and would imply mostly a snow event(hard to tell with 24 hour maps only. JMA also has a monster APP Runner next week which would be rain for us. GGEM is out to sea for this weekend. Next week could be interesting if the timing is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 winter cancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 winter cancel cancel? winter cancel uncancel works too..weird right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 winter cancel cancel? The groundhog canceled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS looking interesting at 72hrs. Maybe some snow I95 north and west. The real issue here is that the phase as depicted on the Euro, GFS, and NAM is happening just to our north so by the time 850's crash we don't have any precip. Basically the story of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS looking interesting at 72hrs. Maybe some snow I95 north and west. The real issue here is that the phase as depicted on the Euro, GFS, and NAM is happening just to our north so by the time 850's crash we don't have any precip. Basically the story of the winter. At least it looks better, maybe things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think the gfs is still largely rain maybe some flakes to end... precip probably happens before 850 reaches 0c. however the vort looks better positioned this run than it has in many runs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think the gfs is still largely rain maybe some flakes to end... precip probably happens before 850 reaches 0c. however the vort looks better positioned this run than it has in many runs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072m.gif It does, if we can get it to move another 100 mile south we might have a chance. Right now the low deepens too late for us and the fort track is one that might give a few flakes at the end but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think the gfs is still largely rain maybe some flakes to end... precip probably happens before 850 reaches 0c. however the vort looks better positioned this run than it has in many runs. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072m.gif Is it the seperation between the northern vort and the southern that's helping here? If so, and even if not, that's quite a difference in the position of that northern feature from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i think the gfs is still largely rain maybe some flakes to end... precip probably happens before 850 reaches 0c. however the vort looks better positioned this run than it has in many runs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_072m.gif It does, if we can get it to move another 100 mile south we might have a chance. Right now the low deepens too late for us and the fort track is one that might give a few flakes at the end but that's about it. I love you guys, but remind me to never go mountain climbing with you. Me: Looks like we are near the summit finally. I think we might just make it! Ian/Wes: Maybe. Probably another 4-5 miles I would think. Not sure about our supplies, though maybe we will be dead from a rockfall before that becomes an issue. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I love you guys, but remind me to never go mountain climbing with you. Me: Looks like we are near the summit finally. I think we might just make it! Ian/Wes: Maybe. Probably another 4-5 miles I would think. Not sure about our supplies, though maybe we will be dead from a rockfall before that becomes an issue. I dunno. You forgot thread the needle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I love you guys, but remind me to never go mountain climbing with you. Me: Looks like we are near the summit finally. I think we might just make it! Ian/Wes: Maybe. Probably another 4-5 miles I would think. Not sure about our supplies, though maybe we will be dead from a rockfall before that becomes an issue. I dunno. lol hey you should be happy there is anything positive to report. sadly it's the gfs on it's own for now and we still need a good bit more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 lol hey you should be happy there is anything positive to report. sadly it's the gfs on it's own for now and we still need a good bit more help. Don't we always need a good bit more help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Don't we always need a good bit more help? often but we're within range now where we'd want more than one piece of guidance close but still 100 miles off. if we are looking for a surprise we want a lot more to join forces with it tonight. i would say the 'hoffman storm' did not really become a snow thump on the models till about now, but the 500 setup was better for sure at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 nam continues to be awful.. at least it rains on sne tho. i guess interior ny and nne is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 nam continues to be awful.. at least it rains on sne tho. i guess interior ny and nne is due. It is, the 500h pattern really stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It is, the 500h pattern really stinks. Wes are you still looking at this weekend? Terrible. Put the NAM down and walk away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 what the hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 the gfs keeps dampening out that northern wave. the vort may be a smidge left of 18z tho not much. i dunno if the nam is wrong.. it might be. the other globals need to back the gfs. we still need a se shift which does not seem extremely likely without a block. it is looking thumpy though.. just west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 what the hell? is gfs now giving a shot a snow/rain ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2011 Author Share Posted February 3, 2011 is gfs now giving a shot a snow/rain ?? freezing rain to start.. maybe some sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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