ThePhotoGuy Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I knew it! Hey, you better get your game face on. You promised a big Feb snow. Just like the December storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS is warm in long range but looks transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I knew it! Hey, you better get your game face on. You promised a big Feb snow. it could be in trouble.. i thought we'd have a flip warm earlier. i still think we end up with a big storm threat down the line tho it's more likely to be one that misses us and crushes sne i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Just like the December storm long range precip forecasting is mostly a sham. i wasnt that far off tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 if it wasnt for the stupid northern stream... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072m.gif this winter could be a lot better than it is. then it would be a NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Northern stream just killing us this year. Tons of potential but almost every time here come some crazy low out of the Northern stream to keep us out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 it could be in trouble.. i thought we'd have a flip warm earlier. i still think we end up with a big storm threat down the line tho it's more likely to be one that misses us and crushes sne i guess. I don't know. I still feel like we've got some winter to go. Be interesting to see where we are 24 hours from now, both wrt to the weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_162l.gif I love the look of the GFS 500 mb map here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_162l.gif I love the look of the GFS 500 mb map here. We need that trough to tilt negative farther west to pull that low up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_162l.gif I love the look of the GFS 500 mb map here. As it stands here that northern vort is going to kick that thing out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Lol ggem out to ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 We might be done for a bit...precip wise anyway. Cold/dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like GFS through 200 hrs. Seems like it's got a ton of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I like GFS through 200 hrs. Seems like it's got a ton of potential. It does look interesting but I think everyone is fresh out of optimism...we've been kicked in the pills quite a few times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I still like the potential for a rain to snow event this weekend. This upcoming storm has seemed to become more vigorous in the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well I had to go over to the philly/NYC thread to see that the GEFS mean is actually mostly snow for I95. The GGEM brushes the eastern shore but is mostly OTS due to the cold. It looks like it would at the least be a snow/rain solution for I95. UKMET looks to be a double barrel until it phases north of us. It's sad how depressed we MA folks are. I mean at this point I feel like even if we had a storm 24-48 hrs out that showed snow we'd still be in the dumps. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system. Anybody got euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well I had to go over to the philly/NYC thread to see that the GEFS mean is actually mostly snow for I95. The GGEM brushes the eastern shore but is mostly OTS due to the cold. It looks like it would at the least be a snow/rain solution for I95. UKMET looks to be a double barrel until it phases north of us. It's sad how depressed we MA folks are. I mean at this point I feel like even if we had a storm 24-48 hrs out that showed snow we'd still be in the dumps. Still a lot of uncertainty with this system. i dont think so around here at lest. the 0c 850 is well north as the storm moves in and comes back south as it leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well without blocking there is a decent chance that storm on GFS at 168 trends north and west. At this point we have good room for such a trend. Of course it could eventually end up west of the Apps, which seems to be the new pattern we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 the euro is considerably colder at 850 at 66.. 0c south of dc compared to in central pa last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 well by 72 it's back to what it was. right along the md/pa border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 this run is a smidge colder and it looks like the northern 500 vort will make a better pass. trixie might still get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Our next possibility is beginning to show up on radar in NM/Texas. A minor shift eastward up the coast would make it very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 looks like it may try to give us some snow at the very end as it pulls off to hit sne. .5"+ from dc to balt and ne, .25"+ (prob mid/high end) elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 i dont think so around here at lest. the 0c 850 is well north as the storm moves in and comes back south as it leaves. I'd be real surprised if we got anything but rain unless the southern stream were to somehow track 150 miles to our south. The GEFS ensemble mean looks rainy to me as the 850 temps are warm and when you have a low developed over central NC, it usually means when it tracks north you end up getting into some easterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 low tracks from se corner of nc near sc border (1012mb) to just off md/de coast (1004) to just inside benchmark (992).. smacking boston good of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 JYO is very close. Highest 850 temps is 0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 the important thing is that Boston gets another 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 low tracks from se corner of nc near sc border (1012mb) to just off md/de coast (1004) to just inside benchmark (992).. smacking boston good of course. What does the vort do, does it ever get to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 low tracks from se corner of nc near sc border (1012mb) to just off md/de coast (1004) to just inside benchmark (992).. smacking boston good of course. Usually we get excited about that track...usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 looks like it may try to give us some snow at the very end as it pulls off to hit sne. .5"+ from dc to balt and ne, .25"+ (prob mid/high end) elsewhere. Encouraging as it seemed the EURO was the warmest up to this point. Glad to see the 12z models have backed off on the western trend and appear to be slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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