North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Glancing at the surface/850 from the 12z nam, maybe a chance at backside snow over in hagerstown? Otherwise, still not looking hopeful. With regard to the missing cold air, is that lingering/cutoff low over the great lakes one of the culprits? Eta: at work and cannot peer at other maps. Any improvement at 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 looks like another late phase on the nam. It does seem to be slightly colder than 6z and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 NAM's not very good. Looks a bit colder ahead of the storm than previous runs, but still all rain. Storm phases and the vort goes wide left. Consolation prize is it doesn't look like we get much precip at all, so the snowpack remains intact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Glancing at the surface/850 from the 12z nam, maybe a chance at backside snow over in hagerstown? Otherwise, still not looking hopeful. With regard to the missing cold air, is that lingering/cutoff low over the great lakes one of the culprits? Eta: at work and cannot peer at other maps. Any improvement at 500? 12Z is quicker bringing the trough through. That aside, the placement looks pretty close at where it takes the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 09 SREF is pretty blah. Dampens out the trough as it moves east. Surface reflection has a weak low moving out to sea off the southeast coast with minimal precip Central VA northward. Rain of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 A weak low might work for some of us because it wouldn't bring so much warm air northward with it. At the same time, a really wrapped up coastal might create enough dynamical cooling to keep things snowy. Unfortunately the in-between solution (inland phase) seems to be the one models are keying on, and that's definitely rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 09 SREF is pretty blah. Dampens out the trough as it moves east. Surface reflection has a weak low moving out to sea off the southeast coast with minimal precip Central VA northward. Rain of course. Actually, that sounds good. I'd rather have cloudy/cool rather than be sitting east of a rain/snow line. Might keep our remaining snowpack intact longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 hilarious twitter from DCfireEMS: dcfireems dcfireems Foggy conditions in DC & Metro area - Visibilty reduced - Walk w/ Caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 this "threat" is dead for DCA/Balt metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 hilarious twitter from DCfireEMS: dcfireems dcfireems Foggy conditions in DC & Metro area - Visibilty reduced - Walk w/ Caution i hate bumping into things while walking in the fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Difference maker? Or just noise? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/12297-model-initialization-error/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Difference maker? Or just noise? http://www.americanw...lization-error/ Snow depth errors over a relatively small region are not going to invalidate the entire model runs. At most, I'd be suspect about surface temp forecasts in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Difference maker? Or just noise? http://www.americanw...lization-error/ weenieisms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 weenieisms When I saw Baro agree, I thought it might have some merit. I don't think we're done. This weekend might not work out, but I'll bet we see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This one is done. On to the uber Arctic front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 *Sigh*...994mb low sitting off ACY and it's all rain Maybe some snow for HGR and Winchester, VA. Gives all of us a little wraparound snow...ya right. 987 near the Benchmark. BOS looks like maybe rain or mix. Another solid snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12z gfs is somewhat colder and drops the northern LP further south. Interesting. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 12Z GFS looks like an improvement with the 500's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 *Sigh*...994mb low sitting off ACY and it's all rain Maybe some snow for HGR and Winchester, VA. Gives all of us a little wraparound snow...ya right. 987 near the Benchmark. BOS looks like maybe rain or mix. Another solid snow for SNE. Um...I know it looks horrible etc etc but this was a good step compared to yesterday's runs and the 0z and 6z. All we need is a 50-100 mile shift in 24 hrs. With that said, ATM it would seem that the best case scenario for the I95 corridor would be rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 *Sigh*...994mb low sitting off ACY and it's all rain Maybe some snow for HGR and Winchester, VA. Gives all of us a little wraparound snow...ya right. 987 near the Benchmark. BOS looks like maybe rain or mix. Another solid snow for SNE. I like it when you talk dirty. At least its a little bit of an improvement. 3 days to go. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Small positive trends, folks. Don't let them suck you in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 if it wasnt for the stupid northern stream... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072m.gif this winter could be a lot better than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This one is done. On to the uber Arctic front! different look this run snow breaking out in hr NC 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 cape hatteras jack pot this run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 GFS just doesn't want to let winter end. WOW! I kind of like the fact that we're not in the bulls eye on any storm in the long range. There are a lot of chances in the next 2 weeks at some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Sweet! Flurries at 192hr. This run is nothing but big (cold) NADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 if it wasnt for the stupid northern stream... http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_072m.gif this winter could be a lot better than it is. Same thing at 168: http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_168m.gif It so DESPERATELY wants to turn the corner and come up... then the northern stream comes in and kicks it out. Aaahh.. winter of 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Did someone hack the GFS? Doesn't look remotely the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 Did someone hack the GFS? Doesn't look remotely the same. must be the missing snowfall depth data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 must be the missing snowfall depth data. I knew it! Hey, you better get your game face on. You promised a big Feb snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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