Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It;s the typical thing before any storm here. The usual camps line up..the pessimistics, the too optimistics and the one or two middle roaders. Things don't look spectacular now, but I don't see any reason to bail right now. Well, things are different here now compared to last week's storm, we just don't have the right synoptic set-up. Even though the models looked "warm" last week, I think the general consensus here was that the set-up was a lot more favorable-looking and a lot of people reasonably expected things to change as a result. Fact is, being realistic here for this event (not optimistic or pessimistic), the models have fairly consistently shown no blocking, no real cold high (or cold air even), and have been simply too warm at 850/sfc for a little while now. Besides, it also looks to get quite warm almost right after whatever kind of event this turns out to be ahead of the next cold front. Not saying it won't work out, but I'm not exactly feeling good about it to be honest. And neither are a lot of others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tulsa has set their all-time single snowstorm record. I do want to see Chicago do the same--- amazing storm. Has there been (in recorded history) a single storm to cause such widespread 12"+ amounts in the urban midwest? And this was with temps in the teens for most of the storm. I hope this storm gets a NESIS rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And this was with temps in the teens for most of the storm. I hope this storm gets a NESIS rating. Wrong thread for this discussion, of course, but it's possible it could get a low one... Boston west through Buffalo plus much of upstate NY as well as much of NH and VT will get possibly 12-18" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Wrong thread for this discussion, of course, but it's possible it could get a low one... Boston west through Buffalo plus much of upstate NY as well as much of NH and VT will get possibly 12-18" plus. Whew! Thank god Boston is getting hit. I was afraid they miss out on this one. NH and VT really need the snow for the economy. Even thought the NE hass been pummelled, ski country hasn't and that's a shame. Maybe they can salvage a good late season and build a good spring base. This weekend is going to be tough to eek out for us. The trough is still positive at the end of the NAM run so that is good but man, we really need the trough to dig more and the NS energy to move its butt or we'll have another rainer on our hands. A lot has to happen for the southern stream vort to pass to our south and keep us cold enough for snow. Guidance really needs to trend in that direction in a hurry. Maybe 0Z will be the start of the epic needle threader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Whew! Thank god Boston is getting hit. I was afraid they miss out on this one. Do we really need to post this same stupid line in every page of our threads? Boston gets more snow than DC.. this shouldn't be news to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, the 18z GFS isn't tragic. 1006 low around VA Beach. Light precip in the area. 850 line in Garrett Co not looking to promising. Too bad the high in Canada is only 1013. If it was a 1031 on the other hand..... At least it still isn't "impossible" for us to get snow on Sat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Do we really need to post this same stupid line in every page of our threads? Boston gets more snow than DC.. this shouldn't be news to anyone. Yea ive got to second this. If anybody wants to know how boston or new england is doing they can click their way over to that thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 997 low off of ACY @ 96. 850 line running pretty much along I-81. Maybe we get into the serious wrap around? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 vort keeps backing nw.. in another 24 hours we should be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 vort keeps backing nw.. in another 24 hours we should be done It sure looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 For those thinking the end of winter is here the 18zGFS doesn't warm things up that much in the extended thru 200hrs. Don't think it gets all that warm until maybe next weekend. It's just the same old...cold-dry/wet-just a little to warm for snow. As for this weekends storm if things stay where they are or get worse by tomorrow night 0z we're not going to get a snow storm. Maybe some mix but not accumulating snow. ATM I think areas west of I81 have a decent chance at a pretty substantial snow. Will be interesting to watch. Still some time but we've got to have the 500 vort start trending in our favor fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No one should be thinking winter is over right now. It's Feb 1 for Christ's sake. At least wait until early March before the doom and gloom posts. I'm actually rather optimistic for another shot of decent/good snow in the 15-45 day range. As far as this event is concerned... it's getting "meh" written all over it. I'll keep an eye on it, but I'm not terribly concerned about the DC/BWI area for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 No one should be thinking winter is over right now. It's Feb 1 for Christ's sake. At least wait until early March before the doom and gloom posts. I'm actually rather optimistic for another shot of decent/good snow in the 15-45 day range. As far as this event is concerned... it's getting "meh" written all over it. I'll keep an eye on it, but I'm not terribly concerned about the DC/BWI area for Saturday. i put it in the subhead sort of in jest but i have little faith in march imby in general. i think we have a better shot this yr than most tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 H5 seems better with each run, with a decent vorticity maximum north of Atlanta this run. Just a little more digging please? There doesnt seem to be a shortage of moisture with these last couple storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well, things are different here now compared to last week's storm, we just don't have the right synoptic set-up. Even though the models looked "warm" last week, I think the general consensus here was that the set-up was a lot more favorable-looking and a lot of people reasonably expected things to change as a result. Fact is, being realistic here for this event (not optimistic or pessimistic), the models have fairly consistently shown no blocking, no real cold high (or cold air even), and have been simply too warm at 850/sfc for a little while now. Besides, it also looks to get quite warm almost right after whatever kind of event this turns out to be ahead of the next cold front. Not saying it won't work out, but I'm not exactly feeling good about it to be honest. And neither are a lot of others. It looks more sleety/zr type event as surface temps seem to stay below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 It looks more sleety/zr type event as surface temps seem to stay below freezing. this weekend? i dont think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 this weekend? i dont think so. East of I-81 I think this will be the painful but likely mid 30s and rain scenario...doubt sleet or ZR will be in the mix...just my thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 H5 seems better with each run, with a decent vorticity maximum north of Atlanta this run. Just a little more digging please? There doesnt seem to be a shortage of moisture with these last couple storms. h5 vorts often improve down to the wire especially once it's better sampled etc. it's close enough that if we see a move the next run or two we're solidly back in it. the "trend" of the last 24-48 has not been awesome. even then we still probably need killer dynamics and this just does not have the oomph of last week's thus far. i think by now we were seeing a good bit better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Wow. Not sure where to post this. I am sure being talked about in Midwest thread but am sure not going to mention there. Jim Cantore and Mike Bettis (sp?) on weather channel at top of hour live in Chicago and thinking that snowfall estimates may be a bit high. Mike said he thought only way going to verify at 24 inches was with the correct call on lake enhancement. Cantore started pointed on radar how dry air was working its way in to the south. Not that any of us wouldn't take 15 inches 100 times out of 100, but I am sure if true at least a bit of let down to some weenies. Still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 vort keeps backing nw.. in another 24 hours we should be done its only "backing" on the GFS, its been like that for a while on the Euro and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 its only "backing" on the GFS, its been like that for a while on the Euro and GGEM Yeah the GFS (and DGEX!) has really been the only to show much snow which is one reason why I have favored rain throughout. This could be it for tracking for a while tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Yeah the GFS (and DGEX!) has really been the only to show much snow which is one reason why I have favored rain throughout. This could be it for tracking for a while tho... Well, if it's over, it ends as it started -- half of the country getting blitzed by a major HECS storm while DC gets nothing. Oh well, I will remember that storm last Wednesday for awhile. But I would add I still would bet DC at least reaches average. I think we have 8 now. I bet we get to 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ioke09 Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I believe the official snowfall for the season at DCA is 8.5". So it wouldn't take much to get to the average of about 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Well, if it's over, it ends as it started -- half of the country getting blitzed by a major HECS storm while DC gets nothing. Oh well, I will remember that storm last Wednesday for awhile. But I would add I still would bet DC at least reaches average. I think we have 8 now. I bet we get to 15. I almost feel like mother nature gave us a bone to chew on. Poor DC Balto. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2011 Author Share Posted February 2, 2011 I believe the official snowfall for the season at DCA is 8.5". So it wouldn't take much to get to the average of about 15". 9.4 7.3 in Jan, 2.1 in Dec i guess the fear is ... right now is sorta how nina should look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 9.4 7.3 in Jan, 2.1 in Dec i guess the fear is ... right now is sorta how nina should look. I still think we get 6 to 8 in a surprise storm that isn't well forecasted or modeled. LIke it sort of springs up on us within 24 hours or so. That may be wishful thinking, but would be fitting to prove it doesn't always pay to sit on this computer tracking something for a week only to be let down more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I almost feel like mother nature gave us a bone to chew on. Poor DC Balto. Too bad. I am at almost 20" for the season and my seasonal average is 24" so i am almost there. I am sure by the time the season is over i will either be at or over my average, so for a La Nina winter it is pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 9.4 7.3 in Jan, 2.1 in Dec i guess the fear is ... right now is sorta how nina should look. I am already pretty much at my average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Average 25.5" '10-'11: 15.8" Even with a thaw progged on the models, still plenty of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anybody want to break down the nam other than saying it's horrible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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