North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 nice dump of cold behind that system working east GFS was also advertising an apps runner to make buckeye happy and then cold behind it. Hurray model agreement 8 days out. For snow for someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 All we need for the weekend threat is for the 850's to move about 50 miles east and we're back in business. Yeah I know all the mets are saying that's looking unlikely but they also said the psuhoffmann storm was going to be all rain and um... As for the long range, up to this point we haven't hardly had any snow while temps have been well below normal the majority of the winter. Don't see how a warmer period makes things any worse. I just see the upcoming long range period going back to normal temp wise. It's not like it's going to be a torch. Still plenty of time for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is anyone reading the midwest board or is this too painful? It must be nice to get 1.25 of liquid with 850 temps at -8 to -12:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm reading it ji. For those that are getting it, bliss, but there's a lot of pain from some where their 12-18 inches is turning into sleet that won't flip to snow with temps around 25. St. Louis folks appear to be in that pickle at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm reading it ji. For those that are getting it, bliss, but there's a lot of pain from some where their 12-18 inches is turning into sleet that won't flip to snow with temps around 25. St. Louis folks appear to be in that pickle at the moment. In 1994- i was forecast to get a foot of snow. I got 5 inches of sleet instead. I was so bitter even though my temps were in the mid 20's. Thats painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is anyone reading the midwest board or is this too painful? It must be nice to get 1.25 of liquid with 850 temps at -8 to -12:( Definitely painful to read, so instead I have been tuned into TWC all day. The live reports definitely hurt to watch. MAN I would love to trade places with Jim Cantore though for the next 24 hours. Screw off Chicago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is anyone reading the midwest board or is this too painful? It must be nice to get 1.25 of liquid with 850 temps at -8 to -12:( I've been in there all day reading... epic snowstorm for them! Poor Indy though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In 1994- i was forecast to get a foot of snow. I got 5 inches of sleet instead. I was so bitter even though my temps were in the mid 20's. Thats painful Yeah, that happened to me in Richmond, IN during my college years. 8-12 inches of progged snow turned into 3 or so inches of sleet with an inch of light snow on top. Very disappointing. Worst thing for folks that's happening to now is that it appears not too far north and west of them it is pounding snow, so close they can almost taste it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 there's a lot of pain from some where their 12-18 inches is turning into sleet that won't flip to snow with temps around 25. St. Louis folks appear to be in that pickle at the moment. That was RIC in February 2003, only the surface temps were closer to 20*F for most of the long duration event. Massive bust and very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I've been in there all day reading... epic snowstorm for them! Poor Indy though... The 22 degrees and freezing rain? Yeah, that's gonna be a huge disaster if the rain gets heavy as it is supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In 1994 - i was forecast to get a foot of snow. I got 5 inches of sleet instead. I was so bitter even though my temps were in the mid 20's. Thats painful Think I remember that storm, Ji - and how badly it sucked when the somewhat unexpected switchover to sleet occurred so early in the storm. Sleet is like the Snooki of the winter weather precip types... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tulsa has set their all-time single snowstorm record. I do want to see Chicago do the same--- amazing storm. Has there been (in recorded history) a single storm to cause such widespread 12"+ amounts in the urban midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Tulsa has set their all-time single snowstorm record. I do want to see Chicago do the same--- amazing storm. Has there been (in recorded history) a single storm to cause such widespread 12"+ amounts in the urban midwest? This storm is truly amazing. I hope we see several cities break snowfall records! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Still may pull out something for this weekend. Days away. Why so ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man, SREFS hold that energy in the SW waaaay back down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is everyone so down on the weekend threat? It still seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Man, SREFS hold that energy in the SW waaaay back down there. What are the implications of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 What are the implications of that? that looks pretty funky. i dont think any other models show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is everyone so down on the weekend threat? It still seems legit. Couldn't agree with you more. We really need this storm to move out. Tomorrow's 12z and tomorrow nights 0z's will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 While we wait for 18z NAM and GFS, thought you all might find this amusing...I picture the mets at this office in Indiana just saying "eff it" and covering all their bases: INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KOKOMO 259 PM EST TUE FEB 1 2011 ..ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... TONIGHT...BREEZY. FREEZING RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 10 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION OF TWO TENTHS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES AROUND 19. NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY BREEZY. SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 3 TO 14 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 3 to 14 inches of snow? That about covers it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is everyone so down on the weekend threat? It still seems legit. we need a powerful vort to go to our south and nothing shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Why is everyone so down on the weekend threat? It still seems legit. It;s the typical thing before any storm here. The usual camps line up..the pessimistics, the too optimistics and the one or two middle roaders. Things don't look spectacular now, but I don't see any reason to bail right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 It;s the typical thing before any storm here. The usual camps line up..the pessimistics, the too optimistics and the one or two middle roaders. Things don't look spectacular now, but I don't see any reason to bail right now. this is too simple a breakdown.. i was one of the first on this threat and have liked it compared to many this season. but we need a lot of help. sure it's not over. it is stacked against us in the coastal plain tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this is too simple a breakdown.. i was one of the first on this threat and have liked it compared to many this season. but we need a lot of help. sure it's not over. it is stacked against us in the coastal plain tho. That's pretty much what I just said in so many words. It doesn't look great now, but there is no reason to bail this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM really jazzed up again with the vort. Looks better at h5 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 -9C temps at 850 in MEXICO at 72 hrs oh, the humanity http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_850_072l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That's pretty much what I just said in so many words. It doesn't look great now, but there is no reason to bail this early. No there isn't and I suspect I'll be doing a blog tomorrow on it. It's another thread the needle deal and we need the northern stream to get out ahead of the southern to force it just to out south. That's a tall order but the nam seems to have trended a little that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 No there isn't and I suspect I'll be doing a blog tomorrow on it. It's another thread the needle deal and we need the northern stream to get out ahead of the southern to force it just to out south. That's a tall order but the nam seems to have trended a little that way. it looks better but it's still pretty north (the southern vort) at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 if you run the loop, it almost looks like the N & S are trying/starting to phase http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_500_l_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 it looks better but it's still pretty north (the southern vort) at 78 You're right, the model would still take the vort to our north but it's still clser to what we need than the last run. I'm still mostly negative on the threat but think the door isn't completely shut. though as it stands now, it's a really narrow opening in the needle that needs to be threaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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