Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 NAM is looking warm and wet. this is no way to run a miller A just unacceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I remember when I posted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I remember when I posted that cheer up it's heavy snowing in BOS!! SPECI KBOS 011509Z 36008KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT +SN FZFG VV001 M08/M11 A3042 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 P0001 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I remember when I posted that I do too... <sigh> ... the good old days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 cheer up it's heavy snowing in BOS!! SPECI KBOS 011509Z 36008KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT +SN FZFG VV001 M08/M11 A3042 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1/2 P0001 $ the pattern has changed and their time is running short from NYC south, I'm thinking its done parts of NE will still see snow, but that's not unusual maybe we get a fluke in a crappy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 weekend looking good... (last year, that is....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 don't shoot the messenger, but it looks like we may have lost the CFS on a cold February http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/usT2mMon.gif \July looks comfy for a change however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 weekend looking good... (last year, that is....) Oh you TEASE. Good looking map though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 12Z GFS holds with the idea of keeping the 850mb 0C line to my east on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That gfs run wasn't bad at all, all things considered. A coastal, and temps close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 don't shoot the messenger, but it looks like we may have lost the CFS on a cold February http://www.cpc.ncep....s3/usT2mMon.gif \July looks comfy for a change however Because the CFS is sooooooo reliable Good thing we have -10 departures waiting in the wings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 noaa needs to fix their servers asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 this run might be more legit since it smacks boston http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_108m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 There is that, Ian. I am at work and could only quickly glance at the precip and 850 maps, but that was a better run, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 There is that, Ian. I am at work and could only quickly glance at the precip and 850 maps, but that was a better run, right? yeah i think it's a bit better than the last few at 500 tho the northern stream might be problematic still. keeps me from bailing for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yup, I was in the process of mentally unpacking running shorts to welcome the SE ridge and giving up on the wkend, but that will hold me. Until the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah i think it's a bit better than the last few at 500 tho the northern stream might be problematic still. keeps me from bailing for now at least. Indeed...I think that clipper-looking system with the northern stream is screwing everything up. Temperatures are barely borderline...and that is being kind of optimistic. 850-mb temps are above zero most of the event from what I saw, 2-m temps are around freezing then go well enough above by 18Z Saturday. That's been indicated now for awhile, hasn't it? Don't feel overly good about this one unless things start changing a fair amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Apps runner at 162. That will have buckeye's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And gracious, do I have the cold modeled behind the apps runner read right? SE ridge cancel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Has anyone else noticed (or cared??) that the ensemble means on the GFS for a little while have been hinting at what appears to be a -NAO trying to form? Maybe I saw that wrong, but it kind of looked like it. Along with a broad flow around the vortex in Canada. This, despite some of the strong southeast ridge that a couple of deterministic GFS runs have shown yesterday and today. Looks like things are in a bit of flux come mid-month, previously it looked awfully cold for around that time, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And gracious, do I have the cold modeled behind the apps runner read right? SE ridge cancel... Yeah, sharply colder (and dry) for a brief time behind that system before the flow quickly lifts again, it appears to me. Trough generally sets up well west of us. And the SE ridge is far from canceled, quite the opposite if you take the 12Z GFS literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 And gracious, do I have the cold modeled behind the apps runner read right? SE ridge cancel... temporarily IF JB is correct and the weekend event is a close one, a mt special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 temporarily IF JB is correct and the weekend event is a close one, a mt special Thought I saw somewhere that JB was calling for a warm Feb. It would figure that the one time he gets something right this winter, that would have to be the one. Grrrrrr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Canadian is close for weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Canadian oh so close and we would see "some" snow I would think highlands of Carroll County would get rocked I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This threat seems colder than the last one at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we still have a shot here guys, no point in bailing 100 hours before any event. I like that the Canadian, which usually runs too warm, is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we still have a shot here guys, no point in bailing 100 hours before any event. I like that the Canadian, which usually runs too warm, is close. We can't bail. This is all we have till next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 canadian looks mild to me -- not sure i like the 500 -- but i hate those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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