Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 basically, ridge in Alaska turns into a trough and SE ridge pops he's basing it all on the Euro ensembles he does say that its warm for about 3-4 weeks until it gets cold again around 3/10-3/15 a lot of good that does us i would have liked to have already had the flip warm or be doing it about now to ensure we'd have a chance after, but maybe this winter doesnt flip warm. the gfs has still looked pretty chilled. the limited sample of mod/strong ninas has one of the strongest signals for 1"+ snow (a sizeable cluser) near mid-month March. they were all pretty pedestrian tho. we did 6" on 3/21/1943. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 sorta reminds me of the 2/87 storm, if not its evolution, its marginal temps I think it got to 42 at BWI the day before it snowed fwiw, JB thinks big cities, except Bos, turn to rain Clearly it will be all snow then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i would have liked to have already had the flip warm or be doing it about now to ensure we'd have a chance after, but maybe this winter doesnt flip warm. the gfs has still looked pretty chilled. the limited sample of mod/strong ninas has one of the strongest signals for 1"+ snow (a sizeable cluser) near mid-month March. they were all pretty pedestrian tho. we did 6" on 3/21/1943. I throw out any WWII-era data. Too many bombs going off disrupting the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i would have liked to have already had the flip warm or be doing it about now to ensure we'd have a chance after, but maybe this winter doesnt flip warm. the gfs has still looked pretty chilled. the limited sample of mod/strong ninas has one of the strongest signals for 1"+ snow (a sizeable cluser) near mid-month March. they were all pretty pedestrian tho. we did 6" on 3/21/1943. What about the sun angle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i would have liked to have already had the flip warm or be doing it about now to ensure we'd have a chance after, but maybe this winter doesnt flip warm. the gfs has still looked pretty chilled. the limited sample of mod/strong ninas has one of the strongest signals for 1"+ snow (a sizeable cluser) near mid-month March. they were all pretty pedestrian tho. we did 6" on 3/21/1943. March 84 had a surprise snow with a clipper that went crazy (that was a weak NINA I Believe) wasn't very good for DC, but BWI had 4ish and PHL had 10"+ I drove down to Alexandria to a friend's home and almost got killed on BW Pkwy during the height of it maybe an inch in Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 March 84 had a surprise snow with a clipper that went crazy (that was a weak NINA I Believe) wasn't very good for DC, but BWI had 4ish and PHL had 10"+ I drove down to Alexandria to a friend's home and almost got killed on BW Pkwy during the height of it maybe an inch in Alexandria That clipper yielded a slightly lesser version of what the DC area just went through last Wednesday--- heavy snow right during evening rush hour, with traffic paralyzed and many abandoned cars. But you don't have to go that far back for the best of Nina March's-- 3/99 was an incredible snow month for the NW suburbs (widespread 14-18" montly totals from three separate storms) and a good snow month for downtown DC (8-9" in the miracle stripe from the dying midwest low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That clipper yielded a slightly lesser version of what the DC area just went through last Wednesday--- heavy snow right during evening rush hour, with traffic paralyzed and many abandoned cars. But you don't have to go that far back for the best of Nina March's-- 3/99 was an incredible snow month for the NW suburbs (widespread 14-18" montly totals from three separate storms) and a good snow month for downtown DC (8-9" in the miracle stripe from the dying midwest low). that 3/99 event was terribly underwhelming at BWI compared to how DCA did; I think we were around 4", give or take LWX has the snowfall map for that event on their winter page but a quick look yielded no results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Not LWX's map, but here's the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 LWX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Phineas screwjob on that map. That was before Elkton became the snow magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This forum is dead. I guess winter really was canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This forum is dead. I guess winter really was canceled. what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 meh -- the trend is not our friend http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_114m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 meh -- the trend is not our friend http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_114m.gif its fine. every model is giving a different solution every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 its fine. every model is giving a different solution every run the gfs has been slowly backing nw with the energy. hopefully the nam is right... but i dont have much faith in that. this pattern supports rain unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0z GFS.... its snow. relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Winters over its fine. every model is giving a different solution every run Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Which is it? its fine. Winter is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I named the storm the Hoosier storm on the board and as soon as Ian hastily removed the name, the storm fell apart for us. When you name a storm and you get a MECS, you dont mess with the juju for the next one. thanks ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 I named the storm the Hoosier storm on the board and as soon as Ian hastily removed the name, the storm fell apart for us. When you name a storm and you get a MECS, you dont mess with the juju for the next one. thanks ian that was the storm currently hitting hoosier.. you did well i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 early call for the weekend storm DCA 0 IAD 4 Leesburg 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 its fine. Winter is over I have to admit this made me chuckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 im going to say the gfs erroneously lifts this thing too fast .. if it's stronger it will bowl to our south http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_102m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 im going to say the gfs erroneously lifts this thing too fast .. if it's stronger it will bowl to our south http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_102m.gif agree...all of the sudden it went from there to north and west for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the first 174 hours of the GFS tonight are pure hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the first 174 hours of the GFS tonight are pure hell it gets worse after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 agree...all of the sudden it went from there to north and west for us that's about our sweetspot both on modeling and in actuality ... the euro blizzards always pivoted right through there.. last week did. the se ridge is starting to flex at 500 tho lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 major pattern change coming and i dont know if it will recover in time to give us chance for that last hurrah. Last week may have been our first and last snow event this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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