Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The DGEX/GFS evolution would suit us best, IMO. -Quicker in- greater chance of the HP being to our north and colder air remaining in the region. -Not all phased up and west of here. -Snows at night. GGEM from today is probably the worst possible scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A 200HR rainstorm on the 18Z GFS tends to not generate much interest. The 18Z GFS looks awful pretty much in the entire medium to extended range...rather warm looking througout essentially the entire east with a decent ridge. And not too long ago, it looked quite cold for the same general period...go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 gfs ens mean looks ok at 18z http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12108.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12132.gif 500 mean sorta looks like it's washing out the energy a lot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I took a look at the EURO closer and think that the 12Z run is crap at Day 5 and should be tossed. The problem is that it phased the northern system with the southern energy coming of the southwest. That phase serves to yank the southern vort apart. Euro probably holds the southern vort back too much and is inconsistent with the 0Z run. 12Z Euro: With such a fast flow at 500mb and the fact that we cant get a storm to phase all year (this current system is a great example- the southern vortmax has outrun the northern energy diving in, hence why we are left with energy in the 4 corners for this storm!) I just don't see a phase of any kind happening. No phase is an important factor, and we need the southern wave out front of the vort diving in through the plains. Why? That will promote a high pressure north of the storm in NE/ME/ and southern Canada, giving us a northerly flow for the storm, and maybe allowing it to slow down enough so the northern vort can catch it late. While I don't trust any guidance in this pattern past 48 hours, and certainly not any model thermals at all... the 18Z GFS ensemble members show a decent storm and snow event in these parts if the set up is occurs with the southern vort out infront of the "clipper" behind it. Thread the needle maybe, but maybe one of the "seasonal trends" (lack of or delayed phasing) will help us out on Friday night. 18Z GFS Members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREFS have got that h5 energy hanging way back there at 87 hours fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 SREFS have got that h5 energy hanging way back there at 87 hours fwiw yeah, I don't know wassup' w/dat still has precip breaking out over the GOM, but looks to have it shear east at this range and with this system, I'm not thinking reality will be anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 looks like the nam wants to hold it back a bit too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 per JB's latest post, after the weekend possibility and another cold shot next week, winter as we have come to know it in the south and east will be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 per JB's latest post, after the weekend possibility and another cold shot next week, winter as we have come to know it in the south and east will be over yea it's not looking to good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good. Lets just get this Nightmare of a winter over with and play some golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 kinda funky but that vort is supercharged this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 meh, i see 50 in the forecast for monday and that seems awesome. i could go for an early spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice fiery whip look, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 meh, i see 50 in the forecast for monday and that seems awesome. i could go for an early spring... Yeah I wouldn't mind some warmer weather for the middle of feb and then one more shot at a snowstorm towards the end of feb beginning of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Nice fiery whip look, Ian. is that meteorological slang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 this weekend is looking to be it on the foreseeable future if JB is onto something I'm trying to figure out on the NAM if that northern energy helps or hurts it would bring in some fresh cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 per JB's latest post, after the weekend possibility and another cold shot next week, winter as we have come to know it in the south and east will be over I better gas up the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I better gas up the snowblower. he changed his tune when the Euro weeklies came out last week; other modeling seems to be trending toward it the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 he changed his tune when the Euro weeklies came out last week; other modeling seems to be trending toward it the past few days What does he say? The thing I see is mor tendency for a SE ridge but I'm not a long ranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 After we get a hecs during the last week of Feb JB will claim victory and insist he meant southeast only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 is that meteorological slang? I could see it buried in a random NWS forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 JB has been trying to cancel winter for about a month. He's bound to be right at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What does he say? The thing I see is mor tendency for a SE ridge but I'm not a long ranger. nothing more than what I said but goes into it more on the video, which I'll watch now but I've had a hard time listening to them this year as bad as he has been with storms for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I can't figure out if this slower stronger solution is good or not. It's colder over us, but that's because the energy is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 84 hour nam keeps the weekend storm idea alive with its jazzed up southern stream. if it were to go to our south with enough oomph we might be able to beat the lack of a neg nao and surface high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 well it looks a little sw of the gfs at 18z. im not sure what that means. it looks like its stronger overall but could be resolution diffs. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_084m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_090m.gif snow near houston http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 84 hour nam keeps the weekend storm idea alive with its jazzed up southern stream. if it were to go to our south with enough oomph we might be able to beat the lack of a neg nao and surface high. Good to finally see some positive energy on this board. That energy got much stronger from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 84 hour nam keeps the weekend storm idea alive with its jazzed up southern stream. if it were to go to our south with enough oomph we might be able to beat the lack of a neg nao and surface high. yeah it looks like it would end up better than the gfs which is marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What does he say? The thing I see is mor tendency for a SE ridge but I'm not a long ranger. basically, ridge in Alaska turns into a trough and SE ridge pops he's basing it all on the Euro ensembles he does say that its warm for about 3-4 weeks until it gets cold again around 3/10-3/15 a lot of good that does us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The 84 hour nam keeps the weekend storm idea alive with its jazzed up southern stream. if it were to go to our south with enough oomph we might be able to beat the lack of a neg nao and surface high. sorta reminds me of the 2/87 storm, if not its evolution, its marginal temps I think it got to 42 at BWI the day before it snowed fwiw, JB thinks big cities, except Bos, turn to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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