Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 since you asked, Midnight, 12/1/10-Noon, 1/31/11, except for 4PM-10PM 1/26/11 that's all you should probably step back and read your posts before continuing to make them. they are pretty annoying lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 you should probably step back and read your posts before continuing to make them. they are pretty annoying lately. he might be better off with a 5 post daily limit. Might be good for him too until the next real storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 he might be better off with a 5 post daily limit. Might be good for him too until the next real storm last yr was pretty crappy except for about 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've never tracked so much potential since following models on the internet.. some people need expectations reset after last year. What happened will likely not happen again in any of our lifetimes. Last I checked most people in the area are at or above averages for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've never tracked so much potential since following models on the internet.. some people need expectations reset after last year. What happened will likely not happen again in any of our lifetimes. Last I checked most people in the area are at or above averages for this time of year. Agree with you here. We all have last year on our minds... we need to curb that. I'm ticked about this year because of the snow-maggedons all around us and yet we've got little to show for it. Ehh. oh well. Nothing we can do about it... just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Winters are always generally crappy around here with the exception of five or six real possibilities a winter season. Ji is right that this year we've had threats almost on a weekly basis so that has made it interesting. And the threats have been first observed about 7 days out instead of the usual 10 days out and we all know how those 10 day threats turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 last yr was pretty crappy except for about 14 days. I'll leave it at this we are all here to follow the storms the difference between this year and good years like last year is that we end up getting snow in good years you will never win them all, I understand that perfectly, but to come so close this year to big storms is what has turned this from an average, tolerable year to something worse/different let me put it in terms JI will understand its like going to a bar, having every hot chic talk and come on to you one after another only to leave the bar with your sister and no chic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Anyone else having trouble getting a good feel for what this storm will look like? To me, based on how this winter has unfolded and the seasonal trends with storms, I think it will end up with a pretty potent 500mb LP/vort and not just stretch out along the coast as the GFS has. TBD whether that's a good thing for us....as long as it passes SE of us, it would probably be good. I could see even a southern Miller B type evolution with a primary up through eastern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'll leave it at this we are all here to follow the storms the difference between this year and good years like last year is that we end up getting snow in good years you will never win them all, I understand that perfectly, but to come so close this year to big storms is what has turned this from an average, tolerable year to something worse/different let me put it in terms JI will understand its like going to a bar, having every hot chic talk and come on to you one after another only to leave the bar with your sister and no chic yes, we get it. you have been repeating yourself non stop. we get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 our pals at NCEP aren't on board with the GFS....."USED THE 00Z/31 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS ANDPRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS VERIFIEDSTRONGLY WITH STANDARDIZED ANOMALY CORRELATED SEA LEVEL PRESSURESACROSS THE UNITED STATES...SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTHERN MEXICO...ANDTHE ADJACENT OCEANS AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST FOURMONTHS...EDGING OUT ANY GIVEN DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER THE LONGHAUL...AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN. THE CURRENT ECENS MEAN ISREASONABLY SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z/31 GEFS MEAN ACROSS THENATION...WITH THE 00Z/31 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF FALLING SOLIDLYWITHIN ITS CONFINES. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THEROBUST LOW IT GENERATES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MID PERIOD. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE UNITED STATES...WITHCONTINENTAL POLAR AIR HOLDING SWAY." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 12Z today good agreement out to 72 with the evolution of the 500mb energy on the GFS, UKMET, and Euro... lets see if better agreement results out at day 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 euro a little slower/south than the gfs with the southern vort thru 96.. holding in west tx v central tx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like it's priming for a phase at 96 with that vort dropping into the plains. That GOM low will get yanked north and I fear this could be a warm solution. (of course I'll probably be wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 storm looks a bit better, should come north at least a smidge but it's also a good deal warmer at 850.. 0c to pa/md border at 114 compared to near dc last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 rain moving into dc at 120.. 0c 850 still up north. 500 looks considerably better tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 rain moving into dc at 120.. 0c 850 still up north. 500 looks considerably better tho. That is all we are looking for, now maybe Mitch will stop bitching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 126 still rain .. ~.25+ for most of dc area -- warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 That is all we are looking for, now maybe Mitch will stop bitching. it's good i suppose but with a +nao it's going to want to rain .. we need uber dynamics again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's good i suppose but with a +nao it's going to want to rain .. we need uber dynamics again Well with the 500 south of us at least we have a chance, i will take that for now and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 132 still rain -- low center near nyc but mainly big broad low pressure over the area, 850 0c finally moving east but probably as it ends. .5"+ for dc area.. maybe some snow in wv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 In a strong Nina, a +NAO is a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well with the 500 south of us at least we have a chance, i will take that for now and hope. im not sure it goes south of us, it kinda gets washed out coming east.. the euro 500 maps are not as easy to decipher as the gfs/nam etc. 1"+ qpf dc east.. so it's pretty wet at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 im not sure it goes south of us, it kinda gets washed out coming east.. the euro 500 maps are not as easy to decipher as the gfs/nam etc. 1"+ qpf dc east.. so it's pretty wet at least. Oh i thought from your description it was going south, we still have plenty of time. At least Leesburg will be happy with all the rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 When I saw 144, I was wondering where the upper energy disappeared to...it was almost magically gone. Shearing it out like that would be unusual given the pattern we are in that seems to wind up just about every storm into a big deal. Nothing's easy this year and this thing will come down to the wire as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Screw me and my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ennepe68 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Screw me and my life for the briefest second, I read the letter "L" as the letter "W" .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Screw me and my life You are bi-model. Your mood changes with each and every model run of every model known to the human race. Your family is probably so happy to see Spring come and dreads the day when Fall arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 its like going to a bar, having every hot chic talk and come on to you one after another only to leave the bar with your sister and no chic You seem to forget DC is a lesbian bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 how did no one post the gfs ens mean?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 im hugging this bad boy http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zensp001snow126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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