mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Think he means the whole precip shield...not the low pressure center itself. yes, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Pretty good agreement between the NAM and GFS at 84hrs. NAM has the s/w deeper though and the ridge out ahead of it stronger. GFS is flatter on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 120 looks good to my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 im not sure i like that other vort closing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 120 is marginal for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Except the 500 vort appears to go West of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 manages to go south http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_138m.gif convoluted... i dunno, it'll probably rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 manages to go south http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_138m.gif convoluted... i dunno, it'll probably rain Was strange how it go there for sure...end result is OK for some of us....for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS is the best solution we could hope for this year 2-4" of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 yeah with a +nao and the initial vort going west of us. good rolleyes dummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's back! just in time to lay down a light covering of snow for the next system to rain and melt hello SE Ridge/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's back! Winter UNcancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It's back! needs to be less warm....storm first temps second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just in time to lay down a light covering of snow for the next system to rain and melt hello SE Ridge/+NAO U wanted a pattern change right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is a pretty good look for us, but it's a marginal setup for sure. It's a little surprising that a <1000mb low can pop with that vort getting very strung out, almost to nothing, by the time the storm gets going off shore. I'd expect a little more snow with that northern stream s/w that passes to our south afterward than what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 U wanted a pattern change right? 2/3 of this alleged "winter" is over we're left fighting for scraps and sloppy second, literally! April can't come quick enough for me as the pattern has changed, but not one that gives us reasonable chances of decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 oh boy, JI's gonna be all over that Low in the GOM at 180 just don't hold your breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 oh boy, JI's gonna be all over that Low in the GOM at 180 just don't hold your breath but there's a beautiful bermuda high setting it up! the b-day storm will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 oh boy, JI's gonna be all over that Low in the GOM at 180 just don't hold your breath Ok Mitch why don't you tell us how you really feel......again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ok Mitch why don't you tell us how you really feel......again he might need his own thread to complain in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 2/3 of this alleged "winter" is over we're left fighting for scraps and sloppy second, literally! April can't come quick enough for me as the pattern has changed, but not one that gives us reasonable chances of decent snows 2/3 over and so far 2/3 of our average yearly snowfall, or pretty close. Below normal temps the whole time. Not that bad actually...just sucks compared to our dear friends in PA, NY and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is a pretty good look for us, but it's a marginal setup for sure. It's a little surprising that a <1000mb low can pop with that vort getting very strung out, almost to nothing, by the time the storm gets going off shore. I'd expect a little more snow with that northern stream s/w that passes to our south afterward than what the GFS shows. whats causing the vort to dampen out like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not sure what mitch is complaining about. If you would of told me in October with a strong La Nina that we would be tracking a snowstorm every week this winter i would of thought you were crazy. We are 150 miles South from having a 95-96 winter. The winter does suck but because we have been unlucky. Its been pretty fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 killed by truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not sure what mitch is complaining about. If you would of told me in October with a strong La Nina that we would be tracking a snowstorm every week this winter i would of thought you were crazy. We are 150 miles South from having a 95-96 winter. The winter does suck but because we have been unlucky. Its been pretty fun Their winter is like 95-96, but without the thaws and drenching rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 whats causing the vort to dampen out like that? Not sure exactly. I don't see anything on the charts that seems like a likely culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure exactly. I don't see anything on the charts that seems like a likely culprit. probably the main culprit is a city called DC where it dosent want to snow. It just sees the Monument and just dampens out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 the gfs has been keying more on the secondary vort coming from the north. i dont think that's good moving forward if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 not sure what mitch is complaining about. If you would of told me in October with a strong La Nina that we would be tracking a snowstorm every week this winter i would of thought you were crazy. We are 150 miles South from having a 95-96 winter. The winter does suck but because we have been unlucky. Its been pretty fun since you asked, Midnight, 12/1/10-Noon, 1/31/11, except for 4PM-10PM 1/26/11 that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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