wxeyeNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 992mb well into OH with the primary. Not too far off from the 18z GFS. It's way warmer than the GFS though and considering the GFS flirts me with pingers I'd have to think this run definitely would. At least it's the longer range NAM. John...I see you lurking. Looks like it gives you warning criteria on Tuesday. You can have the pingers and 25 miles north of you I will watch those silver dollar flakes fly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looking at 850 temps, you might flip to sleet tuesday after about 3" of snow... Thanks, Im not expierenced enough to be able to tell change over time or sleet vs. freezing rain etc. The recent trends aren't great for all snow but look good for a juced system. I hope the gfs comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can have the pingers and 25 miles north of you I will watch those silver dollar flakes fly! You'd probably get pinged on this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 992mb well into OH with the primary. Not too far off from the 18z GFS. It's way warmer than the GFS though and considering the GFS flirts me with pingers I'd have to think this run definitely would. At least it's the longer range NAM. John...I see you lurking. Looks like it gives you warning criteria on Tuesday. Gotta play with the pingers, if you wanna cash in... Well here anyway (see 2/14/07). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gotta play with the pingers, if you wanna cash in... Well here anyway (see 2/14/07). The saving grace may be that the temps aloft aren't drastically different than 18z. The DGEX pretty much slammed the door on the 0C northward push from the 18z NAM run past 84hrs near the NH/MA border. Hopefully that would be the case if the actual wx played out this way. Of course now we're analyzing 18z/00z long range NAM/DGEX runs so it's really not worth doing that. I'm not sure I want to see the GFS come in more north/warmer for 00z than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 hr 69-78 on the nam is a sleetfest south of the pike with the first event alone on tues... about a foot of snow north of rt 2 We need to catch up a little anyway. As suggested by others though, I think a colder solution will transpire on model runs by tomorrow night. My gut says big front end dump coming with sleet maybe up to a Poughkeepsie to Cape Anne line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gotta play with the pingers, if you wanna cash in... Well here anyway (see 2/14/07). We just barely managed to stay all snow with the V-Day 2007 storm...I believe mixing got up to around Rutland, VT...Middlebury campus cashed in with 25"...one of the best storms I'd seen until last year's 2/25 Snowicane in NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Dig faster, ya pantywaisted Nancy-boy. ok thanks for the helpful advice..comming from someone with a snowblower! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's easy for you to say because your stores up there actually have roof rakes in stock. This is the year of the ice dam for SNE. Nearly every house around my area has a wall of icicles on it and gutters full and frozen solid. Not complaining because I love the feet of snow I have on the ground, but the looking down the barrel of all that juicy QPF headed our way makes this homeowner a little nervous. I was able to rake at least part of my roof with a roof rake I invented, and I at least got the downspouts flowing. But every homeowner knows that the water always wins unless you give it somewhere else to go. The options are becoming limited. I'm a bit worried too, mostly on one area of our house that is not quite flat, but has a very shallow pitch. I'm considering hiring someone to clear snow off this section of the roof. It's at least 20' off the ground, so a dare not try it myself. I'm also considering trying this: http://www.thisoldho...,211604,00.html There is no way to place the sock without a very tall ladder, so I might just add a throw cord and see if I can toss it in place. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We just barely managed to stay all snow with the V-Day 2007 storm...I believe mixing got up to around Rutland, VT...Middlebury campus cashed in with 25"...one of the best storms I'd seen until last year's 2/25 Snowicane in NYC metro I was looking over the old PNS reports... 25 at White River Junction. Not sure how accurate that is, but based on speaking with people as well as newspaper reports, it's more accurate than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We just barely managed to stay all snow with the V-Day 2007 storm...I believe mixing got up to around Rutland, VT...Middlebury campus cashed in with 25"...one of the best storms I'd seen until last year's 2/25 Snowicane in NYC metro Mixing line was damn close. I'm about five miles southwest of Rutland. Stayed all snow. Just barely. 28".... most I've ever seen from a single event at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the midwest looks to get absolutely destroyed CHI-DET region wide blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The saving grace may be that the temps aloft aren't drastically different than 18z. The DGEX pretty much slammed the door on the 0C northward push from the 18z NAM run past 84hrs near the NH/MA border. Hopefully that would be the case if the actual wx played out this way. Of course now we're analyzing 18z/00z long range NAM/DGEX runs so it's really not worth doing that. I'm not sure I want to see the GFS come in more north/warmer for 00z than 18z. I think 0z is actually like 0.1 degrees cooler in the midlevels than the same time 18z... well here at kleb anyway. Let's see what the goofus says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 2ndary about to pop extrapolating the NAM out... the coast is toast but rte 2 north might/should stay frozen. might be one hell of a CF when the secondary cranks.. but there could be a qpf-less vacuum somewhere in the ct valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 2ndary about to pop extrapolating the NAM out... the coast is toast but rte 2 north might/should stay frozen. might be one hell of a CF when the secondary cranks.. but there could be a qpf-less vacuum somewhere in the ct valley IDK about toast with temps in the 20 s more like ice box ala 08 , wow on the ice potential on the NAM, south of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84hr sounding up here. Pretty warm around H8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You know, It's becoming pretty clear to me that you people in southern New England are really having a tough time with all this snow. It must be quite a burden, and you all probably would love a break from it. So, as your faithful friends to the north, we are happy to take the weight off your shoulders for the next few storms, or the rest of the winter if need be. We are willing to make this sacrifice to help you in your time of need. Sincerely, North of Rt 2 Co-signed. I too have been hearing a lot of the hardships of all the snow in Southern New England. I too am ready to do my part and am ready to receive a few large storms to help our brothers down south. Hopefully things will trend north and the folks south of the NH/MA boarder can get a nice net reduction from the next storm. We are willing northern neighbors ready to help out in any way we can. We have lots of open space for a few feet of snow in the upcoming weeks. That's what I like about us New Englanders, we are all willing to jump in to help each other. Life must be hell down there with narrow streets and no place to put anymore, you definately need a break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 84hr sounding up here. Pretty warm around H8. -2 is warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 -2 is warm? It is to me with the primary still in OH at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's easy for you to say because your stores up there actually have roof rakes in stock. This is the year of the ice dam for SNE. Nearly every house around my area has a wall of icicles on it and gutters full and frozen solid. Not complaining because I love the feet of snow I have on the ground, but the looking down the barrel of all that juicy QPF headed our way makes this homeowner a little nervous. I was able to rake at least part of my roof with a roof rake I invented, and I at least got the downspouts flowing. But every homeowner knows that the water always wins unless you give it somewhere else to go. The options are becoming limited. How the hell did you get the downspouts flowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm a bit worried too, mostly on one area of our house that is not quite flat, but has a very shallow pitch. I'm considering hiring someone to clear snow off this section of the roof. It's at least 20' off the ground, so a dare not try it myself. I'm also considering trying this: http://www.thisoldho...,211604,00.html There is no way to place the sock without a very tall ladder, so I might just add a throw cord and see if I can toss it in place. Good luck! Funny you mentioned that because I made about a dozen of those today and put them up by hanging them on my homemade roof rake. A tip: Instead of one long tube, divide it into links like sausage with some wire ties. Otherwise they just turn into a blob while you are trying to get them up there and into position. Also use ONLY calcium chloride (ex. Prestone Heat), not the other road salt products. I know this isn't the thread to be talking about this stuff. Sorry all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That's easy for you to say because your stores up there actually have roof rakes in stock. This is the year of the ice dam for SNE. Nearly every house around my area has a wall of icicles on it and gutters full and frozen solid. Not complaining because I love the feet of snow I have on the ground, but the looking down the barrel of all that juicy QPF headed our way makes this homeowner a little nervous. I was able to rake at least part of my roof with a roof rake I invented, and I at least got the downspouts flowing. But every homeowner knows that the water always wins unless you give it somewhere else to go. The options are becoming limited. I have a friend who does free energy audits for the state and he said they look for houses with icicles and ice damning, assuming they may need insulation advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its either going to be 6" of snow and then a mega ice storm here, or 6" of snow and then 12" of snow. Either way a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I continue to be baffled as to how such a strong low forms in such a poor 500mb setup...this reminds me alot of how the GFS spins up insane closed 500 lows off the East Coast with no support...this time the low is not even closed at 500 though it somehow manages to approach those levels in a confluent pattern....call me crazy but I have a feeling the GEM is onto something with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I continue to be baffled as to how such a strong low forms in such a poor 500mb setup...this reminds me alot of how the GFS spins up insane closed 500 lows off the East Coast with no support...this time the low is not even closed at 500 though it somehow manages to approach those levels in a confluent pattern....call me crazy but I have a feeling the GEM is onto something with this storm. Roger that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its either going to be 6" of snow and then a mega ice storm here, or 6" of snow and then 12" of snow. Either way a big problem. The lower level temps are so cold that a ton of people south of the snow line are not going over to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its either going to be 6" of snow and then a mega ice storm here, or 6" of snow and then 12" of snow. Either way a big problem. Will, could ice be a concern for my area despite the fact that I am closer to the coast? I am closer to the boarder of NH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I continue to be baffled as to how such a strong low forms in such a poor 500mb setup...this reminds me alot of how the GFS spins up insane closed 500 lows off the East Coast with no support...this time the low is not even closed at 500 though it somehow manages to approach those levels in a confluent pattern....call me crazy but I have a feeling the GEM is onto something with this storm. Yeah...agree. That wouldn't shock me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its either going to be 6" of snow and then a mega ice storm here, or 6" of snow and then 12" of snow. Either way a big problem. Thank you sir. So you think there is little chance of rain Wednesday? Since I'm crazy Id say ice>rain. The affects of a ice on top of a 2'-3' pack could be something to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its either going to be 6" of snow and then a mega ice storm here, or 6" of snow and then 12" of snow. Either way a big problem. Do you think the mid levels will warm that much N. of the Pike or the models will start trending south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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