weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't call me a winnie. Because this situation isn't a laughing matter. It is a serious one if it comes to be. I think were all aware of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey gals and gals, I started a fresh thread keeping along this theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't call me a winnie. Because this situation isn't a laughing matter. It is a serious one if it comes to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 thats going to be a big issue in the spring well talk about it when the time comes I'd be worried about flooding if one of these cutters manages to actually be rain up there with such a deep snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 just to soothe your fears the RGEM extrapolated would be further north Unlike Sam, I'm a huge fan of model extrapolation. I believe the NAM will be an outlier, with the truth somewhere to the north of its 18z depiction. That could be weenie goggles however. I want to see 00z tick northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry Jerry, typing fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 With only the 18z NAM and the 18GFS on board at this point I think a Final call of 8-14" is still prudent. If the models continue this theme tomorrow then I will amend my final call with a Final final call to reflect an upward bump in totals. If need be I will pull the 24-36" card and chuck. I dont think anyone here would change their forecast based on a change seen on the 18z runs of the gfs/nam. But at the very least, we can say it's interesting as hell, and demands future attention wrt looking for corroboration from future runs and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unlike Sam, I'm a huge fan of model extrapolation. I believe the NAM will be an outlier, with the truth somewhere to the north of its 18z depiction. That could be weenie goggles however. I want to see 00z tick northward. I disagree - I discussed why in the other newer thread... I think that the northern extent of the snow, however, might be higher up...These overrunning deals can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You gonna be offline buried under 40" again like last Feb... We will need to send out a search party yet again... No need to send a search party. We'll be hunkered down at base camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z GFS totals, incredible.. Weenie map, but still, 1.25" QPF. Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z is perfect threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Weenie map, but still, 1.25" QPF. Keep it coming! Clown map should be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have to make a little bit of a serious note here for every body here in SNE. This week could be potential epic and of couse DANGEROUS. Houses will colapse with this. IF and I mean IF this week turns out to be near or historical record snow accumulation on ground this could be potentially severe. I love snow just like any body here but this couls be a problem from the Hartford to Worcester to Boston area situation. LOL, put the pipe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unlike Sam, I'm a huge fan of model extrapolation. I believe the NAM will be an outlier, with the truth somewhere to the north of its 18z depiction. That could be weenie goggles however. I want to see 00z tick northward. the 12z euro and 18z NAM are nowhere near alike in heights.....we'll know for sure at 00z if its a phase shift going on here.... the fact that the 18z GFS is ticking cooler is just the GFS waffling IMO, its been doing that with the qpf up this way at least. the 18z RGEM looked fine...... obviosuly the faster this occludes the quicker it will shove eastward......thats a definite trend today, even with the euro.....so yeah, thats worrisome for NNE. its a damn strong storm and a damn strong PV so its within the realm of possibilty, but im not about to jump off a bridge based on 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Many towns and cities in CT have reached the maximum of, or have exceeded, their annual snow removal budgets. If, and I say if, the next six days play out as we are starting to suspect, the political and financial strains will be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can't compare to averages between DC and up here though. I'm not going to see a 280" winter to get 4x my average. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We'll see. I not sure how yung or older the group is on this weather board but, if this situation comes to be, there will be people that haven't seen depths on the ground from old and new snow either since post Blizzard of 1978, Vietnam era Big snow of 1969 or the Great Snow of 1717. That would be really something on all scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Def. a "pants off" run. Awesome stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL, put the pipe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Guys we still have a long way to go. Take it easy for now..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd be worried about flooding if one of these cutters manages to actually be rain up there with such a deep snowpack. All kidding aside, yes, that is going to be a major issue this spring regardless. The only hope is a slow melt over time but that, esp. in SNE seems highly unlikely. One big rain storm and we've got major issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GC 2 feet this run. Folks in GC smiling at this run. Let's see how it is in 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All kidding aside, yes, that is going to be a major issue this spring regardless. The only hope is a slow melt over time but that, esp. in SNE seems highly unlikely. One big rain storm and we've got major issues. Perhaps. I just hope that the potential flooding isn't that of 1936 for those who know what that was. The Great Flood of 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Guys we still have a long way to go. Take it easy for now..lol. It's getting a little insane in here today. Other subforum mods would have dished out about 30 5-posts/day tags by now. People need to reel it in a little. Take a breath. Pop some ritalin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW guys...start posting in the other thread. I'm closing this one in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I disagree - I discussed why in the other newer thread... I think that the northern extent of the snow, however, might be higher up...These overrunning deals can do that. I think people aren't noting the multi run trend towards a colder solution. The fact that the gfs at 18z was not only slower with the first s/w at 54 but is digging the second one more to the sw and stronger probably tells us all we need to know. I'd agree. When we look back in 3 days I doubt this run is considered anything but a strong signal towards the ultimate solution. I doubt it's an outlier but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can't compare to averages between DC and up here though. I'm not going to see a 280" winter to get 4x my average. Yeah, I get that. I wasn't aware you were even considered part of SNE. I was thinking more about the folks in the southern sections with low averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just told my 11 yo daughter that in my life, this is one of 2-3 winters in all of my years. She will remember this one for the rest of her life. This one ranks with 1960-61, 1993-94, and 1995-96. The other great ones are just a notch below. The way we're going, this season becomes the one to compare all others to. Bench mark Jer as we discussed. Well at any rate there is going to be an extreme amount of something frozen by Friday. Just got back from the store, did a weenie ride back looking at icicles, saw two that were 25 inch diameter 10-12 foot long touching the snow. I think I died and went to weenie heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll relax. Honestly, I don't care if it snowed 4 feet on all of us. I'm just speaking for others who's neighbors will be in trouble. That's all. I'm very sure the officials and Taunton are monitoring the situation carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Guys we still have a long way to go. Take it easy for now..lol. omg, if you extrapolate the RUC, it's a 3 foot snow storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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