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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part II


Typhoon Tip

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With only the 18z NAM and the 18GFS on board at this point I think a Final call of 8-14" is still prudent. If the models continue this theme tomorrow then I will amend my final call with a Final final call to reflect an upward bump in totals. If need be I will pull the 24-36" card and chuck.

I dont think anyone here would change their forecast based on a change seen on the 18z runs of the gfs/nam. But at the very least, we can say it's interesting as hell, and demands future attention wrt looking for corroboration from future runs and other models.

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Unlike Sam, I'm a huge fan of model extrapolation. I believe the NAM will be an outlier, with the truth somewhere to the north of its 18z depiction. That could be weenie goggles however. I want to see 00z tick northward.

I disagree - I discussed why in the other newer thread... I think that the northern extent of the snow, however, might be higher up...These overrunning deals can do that.

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I have to make a little bit of a serious note here for every body here in SNE. This week could be potential epic and of couse DANGEROUS. Houses will colapse with this. IF and I mean IF this week turns out to be near or historical record snow accumulation on ground this could be potentially severe. I love snow just like any body here but this couls be a problem from the Hartford to Worcester to Boston area situation.

LOL, put the pipe down.

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Unlike Sam, I'm a huge fan of model extrapolation. I believe the NAM will be an outlier, with the truth somewhere to the north of its 18z depiction. That could be weenie goggles however. I want to see 00z tick northward.

the 12z euro and 18z NAM are nowhere near alike in heights.....we'll know for sure at 00z if its a phase shift going on here....

the fact that the 18z GFS is ticking cooler is just the GFS waffling IMO, its been doing that with the qpf up this way at least. the 18z RGEM looked fine...... obviosuly the faster this occludes the quicker it will shove eastward......thats a definite trend today, even with the euro.....so yeah, thats worrisome for NNE.

its a damn strong storm and a damn strong PV so its within the realm of possibilty, but im not about to jump off a bridge based on 18z runs.

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We'll see. I not sure how yung or older the group is on this weather board but, if this situation comes to be, there will be people that haven't seen depths on the ground from old and new snow either since post Blizzard of 1978, Vietnam era Big snow of 1969 or the Great Snow of 1717. That would be really something on all scales.

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I'd be worried about flooding if one of these cutters manages to actually be rain up there with such a deep snowpack.

All kidding aside, yes, that is going to be a major issue this spring regardless. The only hope is a slow melt over time but that, esp. in SNE seems highly unlikely. One big rain storm and we've got major issues.

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All kidding aside, yes, that is going to be a major issue this spring regardless. The only hope is a slow melt over time but that, esp. in SNE seems highly unlikely. One big rain storm and we've got major issues.

Perhaps. I just hope that the potential flooding isn't that of 1936 for those who know what that was. The Great Flood of 1936.

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I disagree - I discussed why in the other newer thread... I think that the northern extent of the snow, however, might be higher up...These overrunning deals can do that.

I think people aren't noting the multi run trend towards a colder solution.

The fact that the gfs at 18z was not only slower with the first s/w at 54 but is digging the second one more to the sw and stronger probably tells us all we need to know.

I'd agree. When we look back in 3 days I doubt this run is considered anything but a strong signal towards the ultimate solution. I doubt it's an outlier but we will see.

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I just told my 11 yo daughter that in my life, this is one of 2-3 winters in all of my years. She will remember this one for the rest of her life.

This one ranks with 1960-61, 1993-94, and 1995-96. The other great ones are just a notch below. The way we're going, this season becomes the one to compare all others to.

Bench mark Jer as we discussed.

Well at any rate there is going to be an extreme amount of something frozen by Friday. Just got back from the store, did a weenie ride back looking at icicles, saw two that were 25 inch diameter 10-12 foot long touching the snow. I think I died and went to weenie heaven.

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