moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OT, but it's 4:45 and the sun's still shining. Ugh!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you compare the 850mb heights/temps from the 18z NAM and 12z GFS at 78 and 84 hours, respectively you can see what happens in the end. The NAM is substantially further west with the main 850 low and develops a really strong 850mb warm front right along the south coast than the GFS. Something to watch for but I really think the NAM looks on the overdone side. That feature is what Will and I were mentioning...it almost occludes and leaves a triple point weakness over NJ. That low forms, and the 850 low probably responds by trying to redevelop east, hence that WF feature. Some of it may be related to confluence north of Maine as well and the fact that the srn stream s/w is slower. Almost a few features working together for sne here, perfectly..lol. Whether it happens like that, is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am definitely concerned about the icing potential here, there are some pretty strong dynamics associated with this system, the GFS has an insane MLJ working into the region within the SW flow...will the GFS verify with the strength? Maybe not exactly but when dealing with winds aloft this potent from the SW we'd be sure to advect in some warmer air aloft to eventually change things over to sleet/freezing rain...I think we keep the low-levels pretty darn cold. There is still plenty of time to work things out and not really going to stick to any one solution just yet. Agree - the icing potential could be disasterous on top of the 2-3 feet of snow on the ground throughout Western MA and most of CT...there have already been many roof collapses, and this will just make things much, much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I heed your words Ryan, hopefully your forecast changes, good luck going to be a nailbiter. I do however belive the frontrunner is all snow and prolific, this has the chance to be a major infrastructure trouble week. Agree on all of the above. I also wouldn't be surprised if part 2 did trend snowier it's just hard to go that route now until we start to see other models start coming in dramatically cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Temperatures dropping now.. no more melting till April!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That feature is what Will and I were mentioning...it almost occludes and leaves a triple point weakness over NJ. That low forms, and the 850 low probably responds by trying to redevelop east, hence that WF feature. Some of it may be related to confluence north of Maine as well and the fact that the srn stream s/w is slower. Almost a few features working together for sne here, perfectly..lol. Whether it happens like that, is another story. The NAM almost has some ridging at 850 mb across Nova Scotia and Maine as opposed to the GFS which has a much broader and therefore warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well was any other model correct? The Euro was at least close to being correct here (and I'd say the same for Burlington) it had the timing and QPF fairly accurate from what I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agree - the icing potential could be disasterous on top of the 2-3 feet of snow on the ground throughout Western MA and most of CT...there have already been many roof collapses, and this will just make things much, much worse. This is exactly why I'm a more worried about icing in this case. Hopefully we can just manage an all snow outcome here and not have to deal with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM, toss it lol I do like the 12z GFS/EURO/GGEM and their ensembles all look about the same. Hard to bet against all those for the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z gfs @30hrs ooks similar to 18z nam at 500 me thinks.. but I'm no expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM, toss it lol I do like the 12z GFS/EURO/GGEM and their ensembles all look about the same. Hard to bet against all those for the 18z NAM. Just have to wait to see if the NAM is a trailblazer here. I'm not discounting it ... need to see it get support though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think you people are forgetting that the Wednesday 12z NAM had 0.10"-0.25" QPF for MBY, and we ended up with 8.5" snow with approx a 10:1 ratio. In fact, the Wednesday 00z NAM didn't have snow flying until 06z Thursday, and the first flakes flew around 18z Wednesday. Unreal!!! I swear if this thing was showing all rain up to the Canadian border you all would throw it out the window, why not do the same now Gfs is slower already at 24 in the southwest. I have no idea what the nam is showing for mby don't care at this point. It's 3 days away. 3 days at the last two events had 100+ mile errors on many models, foolish to talk about anything but trends IMO. I think we see colder solutions, that's my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Vim Toot... wish I could push it north a bit for ya buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Gfs is slower already at 24 in the southwest. I have no idea what the nam is showing for mby don't care at this point. It's 3 days away. 3 days at the last two events had 100+ mile errors on many models, foolish to talk about anything but trends IMO. I think we see colder solutions, that's my opinion. I'd agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So far it looks like the 18z GFS is not on the same crack as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 One hting the NAM does is take an ax to the blurring of the two systems. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well at 42hrs height look lower in the NE on the GFS.. maybe a little colder than NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 qpf a bit juicier with the first batch at 51 hours. 0 deg 850s seem north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS should tick in cooler than the 12z i imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS not even close to holding it back as much as the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 colder at 66..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man parts of the midwest are going to get crushed with this. True blizzard out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS not even close to holding it back as much as the NAM did. Still gives many of us 2-5 on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 not nearly as nice for NNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Somewhat OT I know, but keeping with the general LR theme to the thread, Warming occurring in the upper stratosphere, and the ECMWF indicates a SSW developing over the next few days Yea, I mentioned this to Ray last night - and despite the NAO/PNA warm signaling, the AO would respond later this month to a propagating SSW event. Propagating nature is critical- however. Suspending a warm node at 5 to 1mb altitude won't cut it. It has to jack-knife into the tropopausal depths. If so, all bets are off and we likely keep this approaching obscene winter beast roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 with the 'phase shift' the latest 18z GFS does appear to be nudged towards the 18z NAM compared to its previous 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Definitely a trend south/colder. 00z will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is definitely cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z GFS: Back to shoveling off the deck piles so the roof pile can go there and then dumped into the yard. I'm going to have quite the mountain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Definitely a trend south/colder. 00z will be interesting. no kidding. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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