MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 can a brother get a clown map Pcloudy with flurries Nw of portland.....(consensus forecast) Tip did say this last night. lol .. The SOB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12-24 lolli's to 30!! chuck'em low, chuck'em high, chuck ice pellets in your eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not sure any met would buy the 18z NAM at this point unless we start seeing other guidance shift that way. It's all over the place synoptically this run compared to the other globals. Maybe it'll trend this way with time, but the NAM has done this before. Thank you. A voice of reason. All these guys in SNE are poppin chubbies over one 18z nam run...i want concensus or atleast trends before I even think about buying this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 chuck'em low, chuck'em high, chuck ice pellets in your eye :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 chuck'em low, chuck'em high, chuck ice pellets in your eye Hey if this trend keeps up..we'll all be saying congrats to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thank you. A voice of reason. All these guys in SNE are poppin chubbies over one 18z nam run...i want concensus or atleast trends before I even think about buying this run no one is taking it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thank you. A voice of reason. All these guys in SNE are poppin chubbies over one 18z nam run...i want concensus or atleast trends before I even think about buying this run In all likelihood, the 18z GFS will serve up a dose of reality. Then I am sure the 00z NAM will follow suit. Nice for us to dream though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey if this trend keeps up..we'll all be saying congrats to Philly What trend? The 18z NAM is capable of starting trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run looks a lot like your forecast. It shows some respect for the influence of the PV in Labrador.... I think when you saw the 12Z models shunt the Tuesday stuff south it was the first hint that they were picking up on the influence and inability to drive right north into the arctic air. Now the main low is also shunted more. 12-24 lolli's to 30!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Vim toot would not like this run wait for the 18z GFS NAM has a 100-150 mile height difference compared to its 12z run, by hr 48 lol i wouldnt worry about this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What trend? The 18z NAM is capable of starting trends? YEs..it has before.. If it had trended warmer today I guarantee you would be dry humping it..but since it went colder somehow it's wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 got it saved now for verification. I can't wait to see the weenie snow maps for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah NAM explodes the low south of us. Wow. If that's right after a 4"-8" snow on Tuesday just absolutely beyond epic. All of a sudden the 850 frz line doesnt get north of the southern ct border for the duration? What causes this pleasant but unexpected switcherooo? Taken verbatim, wouldnt this be mostly snow for the entire event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 not with 850s above 0c for 6hrs precip is over by then brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 no one is taking it seriously kev? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This run looks a lot like your forecast. It shows some respect for the influence of the PV in Labrador.... I think when you saw the 12Z models shunt the Tuesday stuff south it was the first hint that they were picking up on the influence and inability to drive right north into the arctic air. Now the main low is also shunted more. Makes meteorlogical sense..and frankly is what I have been thinking would happen. Maybe it's wrong..but somehow I don't think the colder trend is going to be denied in this..as SOME of the mets have stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wait for the 18z GFS NAM has a 100-150 mile height difference compared to its 12z run, by hr 48 lol i wouldnt worry about this run 18z NAM @ HR 84 is all anyone needs to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All of a sudden the 850 frz line doesnt get north of the southern ct border for the duration? What causes this pleasant but unexpected switcherooo? Taken verbatim, wouldnt this be mostly snow for the entire event? not trying to rain on the parade here, id wait for the 18z GFS to confirm it but could be a great example of this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/1042-nam-phase-shift-westward-too-slow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YEs..it has before.. If it had trended warmer today I guarantee you would be dry humping it..but since it went colder somehow it's wrong? Normally this is a grain of salt run, but that cold is serious, the key is the front system being further south over SNE, other item of interest is the seasonal trend, as Organizing says it snows where it wants to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not sure any met would buy the 18z NAM at this point unless we start seeing other guidance shift that way. It's all over the place synoptically this run compared to the other globals. Maybe it'll trend this way with time, but the NAM has done this before. I think the track just S. of L.I. of the lp is plausible. Just good to have even the 18z NAM spit out colder solutions. I would say anywhere North of Tolland, CT will be rippin SN+ for a protracted period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 precip is over by then brother hour 78 there is plenty of qpf still to be had. 0c is pushing inland of the shore by atleast 10 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Are the SREFs even remotely close to this NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 no one is taking it seriously lol...this forum is like General Hospital sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Normally this is a grain of salt run, but that cold is serious, the key is the front system being further south over SNE, other item of interest is the seasonal trend, as Organizing says it snowl where it wants to snow Eh, if we trend colder we trend toward sleet IMO. The in me wants ZR if not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Are the SREFs even remotely close to this NAM run? they have the longwave trough in the western usa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Makes meteorlogical sense..and frankly is what I have been thinking would happen. Maybe it's wrong..but somehow I don't think the colder trend is going to be denied in this..as SOME of the mets have stated If this verifies ill be laughing as I get in my car to meet jerry for coffee in brookline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well with strong confluence over SE canada/ maine wouldn't the nam kinda make sense somewhat? i would just look at it and see if globals follow suit tonite/tommorrow am...or wether the nam reproduces it by tommorrow 12z. but it is something to keep in mind for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IMHO, taking the 18Z NAM verbatim is likened too expecting to win the Publishers Clearinghouse sweepstakes because you mailed the form in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If this verifies ill be laughing as I get in my car to meet jerry for coffee in brookline Thai for dinner? Window table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Normally this is a grain of salt run, but that cold is serious, the key is the front system being further south over SNE, other item of interest is the seasonal trend, as Organizing says it snowl where it wants to snow This thing is going to bounce along an atmospheric brick wall and slide out underneath us in perfect fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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