Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow...nam is not even close to mixing over the interior i think it keeps even me almost all snow. Yeah right, like that's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I do have to say the 12z NAM and GFS BUFKIT soundings are some of the most impressive forecasted ice soundings I've seen in CT in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :weenie: Want in on the bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM runs the system just south of LI. A major dumping for SNE and lower NNE. Tues/Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :weenie: lol...translation: Any run that shows heavy snow is correct otherwise toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeahh this run give nne maybe up to .5" qpf. absolutely nothing like any other peice of guidance.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM runs the system just south of LI. A major dumping for SNE and lower NNE. Tues/Wed. Yeah NAM explodes the low south of us. Wow. If that's right after a 4"-8" snow on Tuesday just absolutely beyond epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah we always seem to get one NAM run that brings 12" of snow to HFD/PVD only to have it yanked away by later in the night in these SWFEs The NAM loves to under do WAA in swfes.....ask the NYC crowd....did this to them with just about every event in 2007 and 2008, then the football was yanked at the last second. Sleet to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah we always seem to get one NAM run that brings 12" of snow to HFD/PVD only to have it yanked away by later in the night in these SWFEs Yeah while I think we could come in colder, this looks kind of extreme lol. But who knows. I just think back to all those SWFEs back a couple years ago that would leave us dry and give a foot of snow to NYC and NJ at 66 hours out....only to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 significant mixing issues at the south coast inland 15 miles. atleast 40% of that qpf in round 2 is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Vim toot would not like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 3 feet? (exaggerated) for NE missouri...but 2 feet? a phase in the mid west could bring down some records...for MO snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i would hope watches are issued tonight just so people take this seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Want in on the bet? I don't care whether you see frz rain, but I'll bet that you see at least 3 hours of sleet and I see none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nice run, makes sense, tremendous cold dry air in NNE, Maine.Funny post of the day is when Ryan throws a post in about the 12 Z nam showing an ice storm in BDL while the 18 Z is burying it with feet of snow.12/18/09 colder with Eck, Blizz FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well, let's see. Connecticut gets buried. Must be correct. '10/'11 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol....1.5+ Pike Southward. 0.5 BHB due west southward. Just about 100% snow in all of New England. Caveat. It's the NAM beyond it's useful range of 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 significant mixing issues at the south coast inland 15 miles. atleast 40% of that qpf in round 2 is sleet. that's probably all snow for everywhere except MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nice run, makes sense, tremendous cold dry air in NNE, Maine.Funny post of the day is when Ryan throws a post in about the 12 Z nam showing an ice storm in BDL while the 18 Z is burying it with feet of snow.12/18/09 colder with Eck, Blizz FTW I was talking about HFD but I really think we need to focus on virtually every piece of op guidance and ensembles that is showing a huge ice storm threat in CT after a nice 3"-6" snowstorm on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM loves to under do WAA in swfes.....ask the NYC crowd....did this to them with just about every event in 2007 and 2008, then the football was yanked at the last second. Sleet to the pike. Yeah while I think we could come in colder, this looks kind of extreme lol. But who knows. I just think back to all those SWFEs back a couple years ago that would leave us dry and give a foot of snow to NYC and NJ at 66 hours out....only to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It brings the -10C H85 line S of me. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol....1.5+ Pike Southward. 0.5 BHB due west southward. Just about 100% snow in all of New England. Caveat. It's the NAM beyond it's useful range of 3 hours. can a brother get a clown map Pcloudy with flurries Nw of portland.....(consensus forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 that's probably all snow for everywhere except MBY. not with 850s above 0c for 6hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The fact that Scooter and Will are both leaning colder and snowier should tell everyone all they need to know Did you draw the 18 Z NAM by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't care whether you see frz rain, but I'll bet that you see at least 3 hours of sleet and I see none. Dec 08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol....1.5+ Pike Southward. 0.5 BHB due west southward. Just about 100% snow in all of New England. Caveat. It's the NAM beyond it's useful range of 3 hours. 12-24 lolli's to 30!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nice run, makes sense, tremendous cold dry air in NNE, Maine.Funny post of the day is when Ryan throws a post in about the 12 Z nam showing an ice storm in BDL while the 18 Z is burying it with feet of snow.12/18/09 colder with Eck, Blizz FTW I'm not sure any met would buy the 18z NAM at this point unless we start seeing other guidance shift that way. It's all over the place synoptically this run compared to the other globals. Maybe it'll trend this way with time, but the NAM has done this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not sure any met would buy the 18z NAM at this point unless we start seeing other guidance shift that way. It's all over the place synoptically this run compared to the other globals. Maybe it'll trend this way with time, but the NAM has done this before. There's just no way the -10C line gets that far S in a SWFE. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not sure any met would buy the 18z NAM at this point unless we start seeing other guidance shift that way. It's all over the place synoptically this run compared to the other globals. Maybe it'll trend this way with time, but the NAM has done this before. Yeah, agreed. At this point I've locked in ice storm. Maybe I'll change to snowstorm eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 There's just no way the -10C line gets that far S in a SWFE. No way. When you have a 1060 high in Montana there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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