ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is only my call but I see 90% chance that the models try to get warmer yet across another cycle or 3, only to have them all crash south inside of 48 hours type of deal - we've seen that play out time and time again in these high viscous BL scenarios. With an SPV N and a lower tropospheric +PP anomaly just N of Maine, there is every reason to think the same sort of error correcting will take place this time too. Also - those are about the ugliest photos of me I have ever seen, and I have seen some bad ones - I think the unending single status is finally understood. It will be interesting to see if that happens this time too. It happened in 12/16/07...we had a snow event trend to an ice storm for the interior (rain on coast) and then in the final 48h got interesting with the final 6h being the ultimate nowcast. If the s/w trends way strong it probably won't come colder, but if we see a general status quo with it, then I'd agree the thermal profile would likely look colder as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :lmao: Did someone put this on air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Why is everyone flipping out about a big meltdown? I just looked at the Euro and at worst it's normal temps for 2-3 days then another cold shot day 10.. Normal highs are still in the mid-upper 30's..why the uproar? It's all relative....folks have been spoiled, so now a few days featuring temps a hair above normal seems like a torch. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, that's true.. I think I have to start looking at this thing as one entity as opposed to the overrunning Tues being completely separate. I like how the QPF is nicely distributed too -- no worries of a cut-off this time! Yeah, this should all meld into one deal. Flakes for 2 days straight almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Didn't look frame by frame, but we are 1.25''+. Probably 1.3-1.4''. Wow Dom... We are probably looking at totals somewhere in the the Jan 16 Noreaster Range...This one is going to Rock! I A good thing about this storm is that we dont have to worry about any dry slots or not getting into the "heavy band" to get our heavy snows. This one will be mostly a moderate snow, with some bursts of heavy snow. Less chance of being screwed on this one, at least for MA/NH border up North.... BTW...the SREFs hold serve... Heavy heavy snowpack upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :lmao: Did someone put this on air? apparently so, i got it off the MW thread its from CLTV i guess the local chicago channel?? they are going to get buried, but i dont know about 3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREFs are more amped, but cooler for you Mass guys. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's all relative....folks have been spoiled, so now a few days featuring temps a hair above normal seems like a torch. lol The one thing I noticed yesterday for the first time is out in the sun you could feel it's warmth..so we're entering the higher sun angle period as we move into Feb..Not that it matters much but it was kind of disheartening thinking about it lol..It was only 31 here for the high yesterday and 30 today..so no melting..I think Tippy and I were talking about this last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREFs are more amped, but cooler for you Mass guys. Bring it on. I'm starting to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREFs are more amped, but cooler for you Mass guys. Bring it on. How do they pull that off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREFs are more amped, but cooler for you Mass guys. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Everybody needs to start building a wall south of the mass pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 apparently so, i got it off the MW thread its from CLTV i guess the local chicago channel?? they are going to get buried, but i dont know about 3 feet Well Ik theyre getting a lot, but anyone who saw that will let the 4 foot amounts roumers fly and when they get 18" it will be a bust lol. Thats so irresponsible to put on air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The one thing I noticed yesterday for the first time is out in the sun you could feel it's warmth..so we're entering the higher sun angle period as we move into Feb..Not that it matters much but it was kind of disheartening thinking about it lol..It was only 31 here for the high yesterday and 30 today..so no melting..I think Tippy and I were talking about this last night Yea, sung angle is rising....been dreading it for a couple of weeks. 36, yesterday and 35 today......some melting, but not bad. Down to 32.9\22, now. This isn't that damaging because the dews are low....it's the 36\36 that kills you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How do they pull that off.... A few members were driving sleet up to N NH. It's possible those members trended more in line. There's still some spread though so maybe we're seeing the occlusion effect near CLE so that we stay a hair colder in NE (Will was talking about this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea, sung angle is rising....been dreading it for a couple of weeks. 36, yesterday and 35 today......some melting, but not bad. Down to 32.9\22, now. This isn't that damaging because the dews are low....it's the 36\36 that kills you. Messenger thinks the sun angle is equivalent to Labor Day right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro ensembles naturally colder than OP...looks like 0C 850 line gets to about the pike vs MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A few members were driving sleet up to N NH. It's possible those members trended more in line. There's still some spread though so maybe we're seeing the occlusion effect near CLE so that we stay a hair colder in NE (Will was talking about this). What is are your early thoughts for amounts up your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lost between 3 and 5" of snowcover here in the past several days. Mostly because that 5.5" event was very low water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro ensembles naturally colder than OP...looks like 0C 850 line gets to about the pike vs MA/NH border. Where were they at 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro ensembles look good. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And the mean PV is a little east this run so we're seeing stronger confluence NE of ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All snow n of the pike....bank it. Sleet s of it...lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And the mean PV is a little east this run so we're seeing stronger confluence NE of ME. Key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NNE peeps ... Ekster special on the AFD is up. Take a few minutes and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All snow n of the pike....bank it. Sleet s of it...lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Key. Yeah. So we're seeing the southern system amp up more, but the PV fighting back more. Moral of the story is we all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Why is everyone flipping out about a big meltdown? I just looked at the Euro and at worst it's normal temps for 2-3 days then another cold shot day 10.. Normal highs are still in the mid-upper 30's..why the uproar? Agreed. This storm will do a huge number on the baroclinic zone, and we'll end up with a much weaker temp gradient over the east--> weaker UL confluence, and thus we'll have to watch out with disturbances tracking from the SW. HOWEVER there is also no sign of an end to a very active, perturbed northern stream, and will help prevent any huge warm ups. The biggest "threat" may come early next week as the Pacific jet intensifies into the NW. Result? Maybe a few days 5 degrees above normal. Then the ridge out west reintensifies, and cold air comes pouring back into the northern tier by late next week. All the while, numerous disturbances are tracking through a strengthened northern stream. Once a negative AO is revived by week 3, all the cold air bottled up in Canada comes pouring down, and one of the disturbances riding the late season arctic blast will produce big time. We're not done with KUs this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NNE peeps ... Ekster special on the AFD is up. Take a few minutes and enjoy. fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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